Everton v Liverpool: Oppose goals and back cards | OneFootball

English Premier League

Everton have lost just twice in 12 home meetings with Liverpool

The last-ever Merseyside derby at Goodison Park promises to be an emotive affair. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is backing a tight, scrappy showdown between Everton and Liverpool...

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Everton v LiverpoolSaturday December 7, 12:30Live on TNT Sport

Everton hit Wolves for four

Everton ended a five-game winless Premier League run by thrashing Wolves 4-0 in midweek, the perfect warm-up for the last-ever Merseyside derby at Goodison Park. Sean Dyche's side moved five points clear of the relegation zone thanks to two own goals from Craig Dawson, Ashley Young's 25-yard free-kick and Orel Mangala's first-time effort from distance.

Dyche was full of praise for his players post-match, saying: "[There have been] a lot of question marks about what we are trying to achieve here, and we had to answer them - I think the players have done that. It was a good performance, a committed performance with real intent and desire. They have been through all sorts, and they have kept going."

Dominic Calvert-Lewin returned to the starting line-up as Beto dropped down to the bench. Dyche also brought Mangala into the team for Jesper Lindstrom, meaning Abdoulaye Doucoure played in the No 10 role. The Toffees will still be without Tim Iroegbunam and James Garner this weekend, although Michael Keane is close to a return from injury.

Liverpool drop rare points

Arne Slot admitted he had "mixed feelings" after overseeing Liverpool's frantic 3-3 draw at Newcastle on Wednesday night. The Reds twice came from behind before Mohamed Salah put them 3-2 ahead with seven minutes remaining, only for the Magpies to level proceedings in stoppage-time after Caoimhin Kelleher failed to claim a free-kick.

Slot said, "We were outstanding in the second half, but we were not good enough in the first half. Maybe 3-3 is what the game deserved. They were really aggressive and forced us into mistakes, but we were so much better in the second half. I knew the game could be changed around; we were much better with the ball and also have areas we can improve.".

The Reds struggled from the outset to deal with Newcastle's press while their makeshift defence, featuring Jarell Quansah at right-back and Joe Gomez alongside Virgil van Dijk in the middle, rarely appeared comfortable. Trent Alexander-Arnold will return at right-back here, whilst Alisson may also feature after injury. Alexis Mac Allister is suspended.

Don't expect a drubbing

Everton have been a tough nut to crack in the Merseyside derby at Goodison Park. The Toffees have lost just twice in their last 12 Premier League meetings here, although nine of those encounters ended all-square (five finished goalless). The draw is available to support at 5.10 on Saturday with the 0-0 trading as big as 20.00 on the exchange.

Everton 7.80 tend to raise their game for the visit of their rivals and have traditionally been competitive in this fixture. Considering the Toffees have lost by multiple goals in only three home fixtures over the last year, and only once here against Liverpool since 2011, Sean Dyche's side look a touch on the large side considering the Reds' quick turnaround.

Liverpool 1.47 are playing their fifth game in 14 days, just hours after an intense away day at Newcastle. Arne Slot's charges have conceded multiple goals in each of their last three games as Premier League guests and not completely convinced on trips to Southampton, Wolves and Crystal Palace, suggesting the Everton +1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.75 has legs.

Oppose goals and support cards

Eight of the last 10 Merseyside derby dates at Goodison Park have produced Under 3.5 Goals and a repeat appeals. Only seven of Everton's 35 home fixtures under Sean Dyche have featured four goals or more, whilst matches involving the Toffees are averaging only 2.38 non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) per-game, the second-lowest figure in the division.

Only three of Liverpool's 14 Premier League contests under Arne Slot have also posted Under 3.5 Goals and so I'm happy to oppose goals here, as well as supporting cards. Seven of the previous nine meetings between the pair have seen Over 3.5 Cards bank, as have four of the last five head-to-heads at Goodison. Under 3.5 Goals and Over 3.5 Cards pays 2.05.

Michael Oliver has been handed the whistle and the experienced referee flashed five yellows and a red in his last Merseyside derby experience. The official has also covered the Over 3.5 Cards line in nine of his 12 league matches this season, avergaing 5.17 cards per-game in that same sample. Meanwhile, the EPL is avergaing 5.11 cards per-game this term.

Recommended bets

Back Under 3.5 Goals and Over 3.5 Cards @ 17/20