Benfica v Barcelona: Back Hansi Flick's side to win and BTTS in 11/5 double | OneFootball

Barcelona have been among the Champions League's best sides this term

Barcelona have been one of the form sides in the Champions League this season, and Jamie Kemp is expecting them to outscore Benfica in Tuesday night's fixture...

Benfica v BarcelonaTuesday 21 January, 20:00

Barcelona to respond after Getafe disappointment

From the highs of thrashing Real Madrid in the Spanish Super Cup to the lows of dropping more points in La Liga away to Getafe. Halfway through his first season at Barcelona, the trend continues to strengthen for Hansi Flick: His

side are excellent against the best of the best, yet susceptible against the sides they're expected to beat.

They've beaten Real Madrid twice (handsomely), Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Athletic Bilbao (the latter two away from home) - almost always performing to a high level when the game demands it. Yet they're well on the back foot in La Liga now, owing to dropped points against the likes of Las Palmas, Leganes, and Getafe in recent months.

As for the contents of those games, they've looked similar too. Barcelona create plenty of chances - enough to have won all of them - yet they've conceded soft goals and been guilty of losing their finishing touch all too often. Indeed, despite taking one point from nine available, the aggregate xG difference of the games against Las Palmas, Leganes, and Getafe was 7.3 to 2.2 in their favour. They have all been agonising outcomes for the Catalans.

Over in Europe, however, there's not a lot to say against Barcelona. Only Liverpool (18) have won more points than them (15) in the Champions League this season, and they've outscored everyone in the competition (21 goals). Were it not for an early red card against Monaco on MD1, there's every chance Hansi Flick's side would have a 100% record in Europe this term. Indeed, Opta's predictor data says they currently have a 97% chance of reaching the Last 16.

That's not to say their path there will continue to look like a cakewalk. Opponents Benfica have been competitive in the Champions League this season (W3 D1 L2), and rank eighth for xG difference (+6.2) in the tournament - not a million miles behind Barcelona in in fourth (+8.5). Bruno Lage's side already have a signature win over Spanish opponents in Europe this season too. They won 4-0 at home to Atletico Madrid back in October, and that's an Atletico side that won away to Barcelona last month.

Though Benfica have only lost one of their last four home games in the Champions League (W1 D2), it's notable that 14 goals have been scored across those matches (8 for, 6 against). When the context is there for goals to be netted at both ends, Hansi Flick's Barcelona are usually more than happy to entertain the shootout too.

At this point, there's very little reason to doubt Barcelona's attacking play - at least in terms of chance creation. They can carve out opportunities against anyone. However, keeping the door shut at the other end isn't something I'm inclined to put a lot of trust in at present, especially away from home in Europe. They've only kept two clean sheets in their last 11 games across all competitions.

I fancy their Champions League form to continue in terms of results here, albeit without an entirely smooth path to the three points.

Flick should look to Olmo for Lisbon trip

Dani Olmo has only been a starter in one of his last four appearances for Barcelona, but amid a busy part in the team's schedule, this looks like a good opportunity for Hansi Flick to be able to rotate in a player who really has the quality to be starting for them every week. Were it not for injuries, Olmo would have had every chance of doing just that this season. When he's played and been in rhythm, there's no doubt he has been a difference maker.

In his current role, however, Olmo figures as one of the best bench/backup players in European football. And quite simply, he's too good to stay in that role for a long period - at any chance he can get, Hansi Flick should be looking at ways to give him meaningful minutes.

The ex-Leipzig man has taken a backseat to Gavi of late, but Flick and Barcelona would also be wise to be careful with the 20-year-old's playing time. He's still in the early phases of returning from a serious ACL injury, we can't forget. And in games like this, there should be no doubt that Olmo is a player who can preserve their quality in the final third and help to carry the creative responsibility, even if they are eyeing rotations throughout the team.

Across his 18 appearances in all competitions this season, Olmo's minutes per goal ratio (160) stands at better than one in every two (full) games. Indeed, of Barcelona players who've played 900+ minutes, only Robert Lewandowski (103) and Raphinha (126) have better ratios in terms of non-penalty goals.

The 26-year-old is also an aggressive hunter of shots, averaging over three per 90 minutes for his club this term (3.2). Olmo makes things happen for Barcelona, and at 12/5 to score anytime here, I like the odds of him finding his own way to goal.

Recommended bets

Back Barcelona to beat Benfica and BTTS @ 11/5

Back Dani Olmo to score anytime against Benfica @ 12/5