🎯 Who Are the Bundesliga's Most Accurate Goal Scorers? | OneFootball

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With some Bundesliga strikers, it feels like every shot finds the back of the net. Whether it's due to immense quality or an unstoppable wave of success boosting their confidence, they manage to score from any position. Thanks to Expected Goals (xG), this phenomenon can now be statistically observed.

The website 'whoscored' has compiled a list of Bundesliga players who exceed their expected goal value the most. This means they score significantly more goals than the quality of their chances would suggest. But who are the ten players with the best aim in the Bundesliga?

10. Phil Harres (Holstein Kiel): 2.7 xGDiff

As we will see later, Holstein Kiel is particularly efficient. Borussia Dortmund recently experienced this firsthand. According to Expected Goals, Harres should have only 4.3 goals this season, but he has scored seven times.

9. Jonas Wind (Wolfsburg): 2.85 xGDiff

The Wolfsburg striker is slightly more efficient, having scored seven times when he should have only scored 4.15 times.

8. Jonathan Burkardt (Mainz): 3.13 xGDiff

With 8.87 expected goals, Burkardt has scored twelve times. This raises questions: Is this a statistical anomaly? Is Burkardt just particularly lucky right now? Or is he genuinely that good at finishing?

7. Shūto Machino (Holstein Kiel): 3.26 xGDiff

The second Kiel player. As mentioned with Harres, they seem to have found a deep well of scoring efficiency in the north. Machino should have only 3.75 goals but has also scored seven times, like his teammate.

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6. Benjamin Šeško (Leipzig): 3.32 xGDiff

Eight goals, although only 4.68 were expected. Šeško keeps his composure in front of goal. Now he just needs to do the same when his opponent is named Stiller.

5. Jens Stage (Werder Bremen): 3.46 xGDiff

The Dane has missed a few big chances this season. It's all the more impressive that he has scored seven times with only 3.54 expected goals.

4. Jamie Gittens (Borussia Dortmund): 3.47 xGDiff

Seven goals with 3.53 xG. Does Dortmund have an exceptionally strong winger, or will Gittens' goal tally drop in the second half? The latter is something Nuri Şahin could really do without right now.

3. Patrick Schick (Leverkusen): 4.12 xGDiff

After his brace against Dortmund, he missed a huge chance. An exception, as almost every shot from Schick is currently a goal. The proof: eleven goals with only 6.88 Expected Goals.

2. Alexis Claude-Maurice (Augsburg): 4.39 xGDiff

Perhaps the most amusing case on this list. According to xG, the offensive player should only have 1.61 goals. He rarely gets into dangerous positions in front of the opponent's goal. However, Claude-Maurice doesn't care and has scored six times. Union Berlin was his latest victim.

1. Omar Marmoush (Frankfurt): 4.8 xGDiff

From 10.2 xG, Marmoush scored 15 goals, catching the attention of Manchester City. The question now is whether Marmoush is truly that good or just going through a phase where everything works out for him. The Cityzens are betting a lot of money on the first option. Who are we to disagree?

📸 Lars Baron - 2025 Getty Images