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·11 January 2025
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·11 January 2025
Will Nuno risk his best players against Luton?
Nottingham Forest are absolutely flying in the Premier League, with the two time FA Cup winners sitting in third, having won all of their last six matches.
Luton Town were relegated from the top flight last season, have lost all of their last 10 away fixtures, and have just sacked manager, Rob Edwards.
So why on Earth would I suggest backing the Hatters to avoid defeat in 90 minutes at the City Ground? Because this is the FA Cup of course.
Strange things happen in this competition - things much stranger than this suggestion, and there are reasons to think that this will be a closer game than the odds suggest.
Nuno Espírito Santo is now in a race for a Champions League place, and with Liverpool visiting on Tuesday, I can see him heavily rotating his XI here. He doesn't have the biggest squad in the world to pick from, and while the visitors are at a low ebb, a change in the dugout could spark them into life - they did draw both league matches with Forest last season.
The Canaries have hit form in the Championship, taking 10 points from the last 12 available, and with home advantage against Brighton, they are more than capable of running the Seagulls very closely indeed.
The Premier League club are now winless in eight, and while only two of those were defeats, a seventh draw in nine would do us just fine at Carrow Road.
Only Bristol City and Burnley have won on this ground this term, and Brighton have recorded just one away victory from their last six on the road. Yes they are dropping slightly in level of opponent, but I would also factor in that the Premier League teams have fixtures next midweek, whilst the Championship clubs have the week off.
Another Championship side that I think can avoid a loss in normal time against a top flight team in the FA Cup today is West Brom.
The Baggies might have faded a bit following a red-hot start to the campaign, but their downfall has been too many draws, not the fact that they have been losing games.
They were dealt a blow at Christmas when manager, Carlos Corberán departed to manage Valencia, but Chris Brunt has done okay in temporary charge - picking up positive results in each of the last three matches.
Wagered: 102pts
Returned: 87.68pts
P/L: -14.32pts
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