Playing fair with Newcastle United – The stats

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The Mag

·4 November 2024

Playing fair with Newcastle United – The stats

When it comes to Newcastle United, had they been playing fair?

I am talking about the media and stats.

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Especially in the run up to Newcastle United facing Arsenal at the weekend.

So does lies, damn lies and… statistics show up here?

Well, all I kept reading ahead of Saturday was that United hadn’t won in five Premier League matches.

Which was of course true.

However, it was also true that Newcastle United had deservedly won 2-0 against Premier League top four side Chelsea as recently as Wednesday.

Indeed, an alternative stats quote is that Newcastle United went into this past weekend on a run of five matches featuring two wins, a draw and two defeats, in all competitions.

A stat which could now be said to be last six matches (all competitions), Newcastle United with three wins, one draw and two defeats.

There should be a balance when highlighting form.

At least there should be if you are wanting to give a true reflection of the reality.

Such as maybe mentioning that the only home game Newcastle United have lost now in ten months, is that lucky smash and grab Brighton managed last month.

This is the thing as well, the stats of recent matches show that Newcastle United absolutely. based on their overall performances, deserved to beat both Everton and Brighton. It was the NUFC finishing that let us down and not the core performances, failing to take golden chances such as a penalty and free header six yards out, as well as a number of one on ones. Against Chelsea as well, Newcastle were well deserving of a draw, as well as other chances we saw Isak rounding the keeper and then caught in two minds of scoring himself and passing to a teammate to do so, only to do neither. In that Chelsea match, United having the higher Expected Goals stat.

In their last 14 competitive matches, Newcastle United have the following record:

Played 14 Won 8 Drawn 3 Lost 3

Not exactly the tale of woe that so many have wanted to portray about Newcastle United.

If restricting it to just this season, all Newcastle United matches in 2024/25 show:

Played 13 Won 7 Drawn 3 Lost 3 Goals Scored Goals 14 Conceded 11

The goalkeeping and defending has been generally excellent and conceding on average less than a goal a game is very impressive. Indeed, take out the two defeats in West London (Fulham and Chelsea) and Newcastle have only conceded six goals in the other 11 matches this season with five clean sheets. Actually, four of those clean sheets coming in the last six matches.

I think there is every reason to believe that now Newcastle United are showing increasingly more threat in attack, as the likes of Isak and Gordon get fully wound up and on top form, as well as the massive positivity that has been provided by Joe Willock these last couple of games.

Nick Pope and Alexander Isak are two such huge players for Newcastle United and if both are at the top of their games and the other nine between them on the pitch running into form as well, then NUFC are well capable of now going on to post an impressive run of performances AND results.

Now on the back of two wins and two clean sheets against top four sides Chelsea and Arsenal, Eddie Howe’s side go to Forest next. Newcastle having beaten third in the table Forest already at the City Ground this season, in the League Cup, Nuno’s side having lost only one of the other ten matches they have played this season.

Get another positive result against Nottingham Forest, Newcastle then face two struggling sides in West Ham and Palace.

United now have a platform to potentially drive on in November and by the time we get to December, it will be interesting to see what the stats say…

Newcastle United upcoming matches confirmed to end of January 2025:

Sunday 10 November – Forest v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Monday 25 November – Newcastle v West Ham (8pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 30 November – Crystal Palace v Newcastle (3pm)

Wednesday 4 December – Newcastle v Liverpool (7.30pm) Amazon

Saturday 7 December – Brentford v Newcastle (3pm)

Saturday 14 December – Newcastle v Leicester (3pm)

W/C Monday 16 December – Newcastle v Brentford – Carabao Cup Quarter-Final

Saturday 21 December – Ipswich v Newcastle (3pm)

Thursday 26 December – Newcastle v Villa (3pm) Amazon