Group B Stat Pack: Best bets for Spain, Croatia, Italy & Albania | OneFootball

Spain - 7/18.00 to win Euro 2024

Key Player - Rodri

The Goalscorer - Alvaro Morata

The Shooter - Nico Williams

The Fouler - Dani Carvajal

The Creator - Pedri

The Dictator/Passer - Rodri

The One to watch - Lamine Yamal

As the odds on favourites to clinch Group B, Luis de la Fuente's Spain need little introduction as a force to be reckoned with this summer. In the previous edition of the EUROs back in 2021, La Roja were just a penalty shootout away from making the final, having taken eventual winners Italy to the brink in a game they had dominated territorially.

From Luis Enrique then to Luis de la Fuente now, you can still largely expect Spain to approach tournaments in their classic style of recent decades. They want as much of the ball as possible, the monopoly on action in the penalty areas, and will aim for their control of events to eventually sap the legs and spirit of their opponents. There are, however, a few key distinctions to be made between the two coaches and how they go about things.

While still being keen to dominate the ball and resulting territory, this version of Spain are more direct than we've been used to. De la Fuente's side get into attacks quicker and they're not worried about playing into the box earlier, unlike Luis Enrique's team at the 2022 World Cup who were ultra patient in their circulation. Spain had three games with over 900 completed passes in the 2022 tournament, and only managed to win one of them.

We've still seen plenty of sky-high possession figures under De la Fuente, but the way of playing feels less midfielder-dominant now. Where, for example, Spain were eliminated from the 2022 World Cup against Morocco having opted for a 'false nine' in the form of Marco Asensio, you can expect this summer's side to be more direct and forceful in the way they approach games, as opposed to the pursuit of control at all costs.

One of the biggest differences in the current playing squad compared to previous years is the arrival of a host of fleet-footed wide players. Their pass-fest at the World Cup had plenty to do with Luis Enrique's style, but they also lacked threat on the flanks and players who could generate advantages in one-v-one situations. Here in 2024, Spain should have fewer reasons to get caught in endless spells of circulating from side to side.

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Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal are two of the best dribblers in La Liga, and compliment each other perfectly as options on the left and right side that can take their full backs both ways. Only four players in Europe's big five leagues provided more assists than Williams across all competitions this season (16), while he and Yamal both ranked in the top 10 for expected assists from open play in La Liga this term.

With a strong core to their team, including the world's best in his position in Rodri, Spain won't be afraid to field more orthodox defenders at EURO 2024 either - as opposed to their usual ball-playing specialists.

Spain look well balanced heading into the tournament, and the boost of dynamic wing play can be a game changer for them too. I'd take them plenty serious as far as their trophy chances go this summer.

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Back Nico Williams to win young player of the tournament at EURO 2024

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Croatia - 30/131.00 to win Euro 2024

Key Player - Luka Modric

The Goalscorer - Andrej Kramaric

The Shooter - Ivan Perisic

The Fouler - Mateo Kovacic

The Creator - Luka Modric

The Dictator/Passer - Marcelo Brozovic

The One to watch - Lovro Majer

There haven't been many teams you'd like to see in the knockout stages of an international tournament less than Croatia in recent times. They've been among the three best finishers in the previous two World Cups (runners-up in 2018 and third in 2022) and were a penalty shootout away from winning the UEFA Nations League last summer too, thanks to their seemingly ultimate powers of survival.

In their last outing at the World Cup, Croatia made it to the final four after beating both Japan and Brazil on penalties in the first two rounds of the knockout stages. As you'll no doubt recall, the man of the moment Dominik Livakovic only conceded three of the eight penalties he faced across those two shootouts, turning himself into one of the most feared spot kick stoppers in the game, and Croatia into the kings of knockout stage resistance.

As for whether they can continue to be knockout stage spoilers on the big stage again is, of course, another question to weigh up. Here in 2024 it's tempting to see them as a spirited boxer who has managed to outlast opponent after opponent, but who may soon find it much harder to survive in the same scenario after many battles. It's now been five-and-a-half years since their talisman Luka Modric won the Ballon d'Or.

Now closer to 39 than 38, it's logical to think Modric's best major tournaments are behind him. Despite showing he can still contribute on limited starts and in off-the-bench cameos for Real Madrid this season, there's plenty of reason to think the midfield trio of Modric-Brozovic-Kovacic will struggle to sustain the team with the same authority of previous tournaments.

While midfield has been Croatia's ultimate strength in recent times, it's also had to do plenty of heavy lifting given the goal deficit they've experienced. In five of their seven games at the 2022 World Cup they were held to under one xG, and half of their goals at the tournament were netted in a single group stage game against Canada (4/8).

Zlatko Dalic's side don't tend to create much when the major tournaments roll around, but until now it's not been a particular handicap for them. The question now is whether they can be quite as good in the first two thirds to control games and be able to survive managing short margins on the scoreboard.

I'd expect Croatia to remain competitive in the group stage at this year's EUROs, largely on the experience of Dalic and a generation that have become accustomed to being strong around tournament time. Along with a proven goalkeeper in Livakovic, their defensive options remain plenty strong, including two 2023-24 title winners in the form of Josko Gvardiol and Josip Stanisic.

In a tough group alongside Spain and Italy, Croatia won't be the type to go quietly - just the mere suggestion that the best days of the current crop might be behind them will no doubt serve as fuel for their performance. However, with all due respect to Dalic and his side, I expect making noise in the knockout stages will just be a step too far for them in 2024.

Italy - 14/115.00 to win Euro 2024

Key Player - Nicolo Barella

The Goalscorer - Gianluca Scamacca

The Shooter - Federico Chiesa

The Fouler - Gianluca Mancini

The Creator - Nicolo Barella

The Dictator/Passer - Jorginho

The One to watch - Alessandro Bastoni

"It's the highest moment of my career," says Italy coach Luciano Spalletti. "It's like I am living in paradise because I am preparing the national team for the Euros."

After a managerial career spanning over 1,000 games, the opportunity to lead an Italy team at a major tournament has clearly given the 65-year-old a renewed sense of purpose. Of course, this is not merely about having the opportunity to coach at the EUROs either - Italy are the reigning champions and will be expected to mount an honourable defence in Germany.

The Azzurri's attempts at retaining the title will take place without having had a World Cup in between, following their failure to qualify in 2022. That means the team who won the last edition of this tournament back in 2021 will inevitably look a lot different to the one this time round, with a pivotal chunk of their spine missing through Giorgio Chiellini, Leonardo Bonucci and Marco Verratti.

Mancini's team from the previous tournament were famed for the fluency of their football, and the fact they looked like a club side playing international football such was the quality of their play and the chemistry throughout the team. Hitting those same levels again in 2024 will be incredibly difficult, but Spalletti's intention will be to develop a team who play with similar courage with and without the ball.

Italy's 4-3-3 from the previous edition is expected to give way this time to a back three system, particularly given the options at both centre back and wing back. "I want to try the 3-4-2-1 to try to make some players more comfortable," Spalletti told Gazzetta dello Sport earlier this year, with his eventual hope for their style being: "maintaining an offensive propensity, without always returning to five at the back when not in possession, creating balances that allow us to always play the game openly."

It's not crystal clear at this point just how Italy's attack will be formed come tournament time, but a back three system means there's a good chance they'll recruit productive play outside of their forwards specifically. Serie A champions Internazionale will be sending a lot of their players to represent the Azzurri, while the likes of Bastoni and Dimarco are well versed in how to translate their defensive roles into attacking contributions, once the 'back five' switches to in-possession mode.

Someone who ought to profit from that, if given the nod to lead the line, is Atalanta's multifunctional forward Gianluca Scamacca. He's been in sensational form in 2024, netting more goals than any other player for a Serie A club since the turn of the year (13), and forcing his way into the international picture ahead of the EUROs. The determination he's shown to make the plane for Germany really ought to sit well with Spalletti, and the system could be pretty similar to what he plays in with Atalanta too.

Italy may be missing some stalwarts from their previous EUROs triumph, but a talented squad led by a fine successor to Roberto Mancini should still see them able to disrupt in the knockout stages this year.

Albania - 500/1501.00 to win Euro 2024

Key Player - Berat Djimsiti

The Goalscorer - Sokol Cikalleshi

The Shooter - Jasir Asani

The Fouler - Sokol Çikalleshi

The Creator - Nedim Bajrami

The Dictator/Passer - Kristjan Asllani

The One to watch - Armando Broja

This will be just Albania's second ever appearance at a European Championships or World Cup tournament, with their only previous one coming back at EURO 2016 - a tournament in which they finished third in their group, behind France and Switzerland.

Now under the management of former Brazilian defender Sylvinho, Albania sealed their place at this summer's tournament with an impressive run of results in qualifying, topping a Group E that featured Czechia and Poland - two nations ranked considerably higher than them in the current FIFA world rankings.

With that said, it comes as no surprise to see Albania at the longest odds to qualify from Group B at EURO 2024 16/54.20. Their three confirmed opponents at the tournament all currently occupy positions in the top 10 of the FIFA world rankings (Spain, Italy and Croatia), which is the only group featuring as many as three sides in that list. For Albania, it really is a group of death.

Albania have won more games than they've lost under Sylvinho to date (W5 D3 L3), although their underlying metrics don't suggest much daylight between them and their opponents so far. In the qualifying campaign for EURO 2024, Albania only lost once across eight matches (W4 D3) despite their xG for (7) and against (6.3) being almost identical, as well as the fact they faced more shots (88) than they managed themselves (72).

In fact, among all sides involved in EURO 2024 qualifying who will be at this summer's tournament, Albania were one of only three sides who conceded more shots than they produced, along with Ukraine and Georgia. Meanwhile, only three teams - Scotland, Slovakia and Georgia - had a worse xG difference than them during the qualifying campaign (+0.8).

Although the data suggests Albania might have overperformed in terms of their results in qualifying, they have shown they're capable of springing a surprise on their day. Sylvinho's side managed victories over both Czechia and Poland in the qualifying campaign, despite having just 36% and 39% possession in those games respectively. That made them one of only two sides to qualify for EURO 2024 - along with Romania - to win multiple games in qualifying in which they had less than 40% possession in the match.

If Albania are to spring a shock and emerge from Group B, it seems likely their route through will come through a stout defensive resistance and being able to nick a goal to protect - whether that's on the counter, through a set piece, or as has been their speciality in qualifying, a speculative strike from range.

Only France (7) scored more from outside the box than Albania (5) in the EURO 2024 qualifying campaign, while they had the highest percentage of their goals coming from outside the box of any team to score more than twice (42% - 5/12).