BBC Sport pundit weighing in with this new Newcastle United analysis – On the money? | OneFootball

Some interesting comments from this BBC Sport pundit on Newcastle United.

Chris Sutton speaking ahead of Saturday afternoon’s game at Turf Moor.

Eddie Howe and his players looking to follow on from last Saturday’s second half performance when four goals in 20 minutes blew away Sheffield United.

Pointing out to BBC Sport what he sees as the relevant situations of the two clubs as Newcastle United take on Burnley, is Chris Sutton getting it right this time?

Chris Sutton talking to BBC Sport – 3 May 2024:

“I am at this game for 5 Live, and I am really looking forward to it because both teams have hit a bit of form.

“I used to play for Blackburn so I always get a nice reception when I go to Turf Moor, but I have to say I admire how Burnley have kept going this season.

“Vincent Kompany’s side should have beaten Manchester United last week, but they have still given themselves a chance of staying up with three games to go.

“They will throw everything at this game, while Newcastle are in the mix for sixth place and will be right up for it too.

“I love what Alexander Isak is doing for the Magpies but, like his team-mate Anthony Gordon, his numbers do drop off when they are on the road.

“Both players should have a chance to improve their away stats on Saturday, but I don’t think Newcastle will have things all their own way.

“Prediction: Burnley 3 Newcastle 3”

So what to make of what the BBC Sport man has said?

Well, a word of warning if you are going to be swayed by Chris Sutton when it comes to Burnley’s goalscoring. The BBC Sport pundit reckons the home side are going to score three goals.

In 38 matches this season against Premier League opposition this season (in league and cups), Burnley have managed three goals in a game only against Sheffield United. Burnley have managed this 5-0 at home and 4-1 away, though worth pointing out that Sheffield United have conceded a massive 97 goals, with 13 of those seeing Newcastle United setting a new Premier League record, for goals against one other club in a PL season.

In their 36 other games against Premier League opposition, Burnley scoring two or less goals. Indeed, whilst their form has picked up from a woeful 20 defeats and only three wins in their opening 27 PL matches this season, the fact is that apart from winning 4-1 at Sheffield United two weeks ago, their other four of the last five games have seen Burnley only score three goals, including only one goal at home to Wolves and the same against Brighton at Turf Moor.

My feeling is that based on these stats, you have to think that if Newcastle can score two or more goals that should be enough for a win. The last two visits to Turf Moor have seen a 2-1 for Newcastle and every chance of something similar this time.

Newcastle conceded twice against a Palace side who played really well but in three of their last four games, Eddie Howe’s side conceding only one other goal. Clean sheets at Fulham and home to Spurs, whilst Sheffield United getting that early goal last Saturday.

Only Sheffield United have scored less than Burnley’s 38 goals and nobody has scored so few at home, Burnley with only 17 goals at Turf Moor in 17 home PL games, whilst conceding 37.

Newcastle United might not be as good away (scored 26 and conceded 34) this season as at home (scored 48 and conceded 21) but those NUFC away stats are still far better than Burnley’s at home.

Whilst apart from that 2-0 defeat at Palace, in their other five Premier League away matches since New Year’s Day, Newcastle have scored 10 goals and won three from five.

With Callum Wilson now having returned as excellent back up to Isak, then the likes of Gordon, Barnes and Bruno also providing plenty of threat, here’s hoping we will see a few more NUFC goals today.