Best Bets for MLS Week 22 | OneFootball

Match- FC Dallas hosts Minnesota United

MLS Week 22 officially starts with a Wednesday match between NYCFC and Toronto FC, but the first Friday match sees FC Dallas host Minnesota United on July 4th.

FC Dallas is 1-1-2 in their last 4 matches. While they finally started scoring in those 4 matches, tallying 8 goals, their defense also allowed 9 goals for a -1 differential. Those matches were without defender Osaze Urhoghide, who is set to miss this weekend’s match against Minnesota United.

Minnesota Will be without some key pieces, but should have Dayne St. Clair back, which is a huge relief. Minnesota United’s injury report saw the line shift significantly, but I locked Minnesota in at +140 for the away win.

Pick- Minnesota United +140

FC Dallas only has 1 home win on the season, where they usually play their best soccer. By comparison, Minnesota is 4-4-2 on the road.  Minnesota is the better team and their home/away splits give them a solid advantage.

My model has Minnesota to get an away win 47.9% of the time, so any plus money play will be a solid pick this weekend.  If the line walks towards anything worse than +110 I won’t buy in.

Match- FC Cincinnati hosts Chicago Fire

The second match in MLS Week 22 where I have a play includes the Chicago Fire scoring twice against FC Cincinnati.  While Cincinnati has a 5-2-1 home record, they have also allowed 9 goals in 8 home matches, including allowing 5 in their last 2.

What was different about those matches? They were without Nick Hagglund.

Since Hagglund went down with a rib injury and subsequent surgery, Cincy has allowed 11 goals in 6 matches.  They will be without Miles Robinson in what could be the biggest defensive test yet for FC Cincinnati against a strong Chicago Fire road team.

Pick- Chicago Team Total Over 1.5 +138

Chicago Fire have been the biggest road warriors this season.  Chicago plays conservatively at home, with a 2-4-3 record and 10 goals with 12 allowed.  On the road, however, they have 28 goals and 22 allowed.

In order to score almost triple the number of goals on the road, Chicago needed many multi-goal matches.  They were kept scoreless in zero 2025 goad matches, and have been kept to a single goal only twice- once against each New York Team.

I expect goals and while Chicago might not get the win, I will bet the team total at +138 odds.

Match- DC United hosts Atlanta United

MLS Week 22 also sees two teams who haven’t seen much scoring, with DC United hosting Atlanta United. Atlanta has only scored 5 goals in 9 away matches, and DC United has only scored 9 goals in 8 home matches.

While both defenses have been leaky, the question remains- which team will score?

Pick- Under 2.5 Goals +118

My model shows the under hitting 47.25% of the time, making +118 an advantageous bet over the sportsbook.  I can’t take either team to win, mostly because both are underachievers who, on paper, should be scoring in bunches.

I will tail history here and say the offensive ineptitude of these two will outweigh the defensive ineptitude.  Under 2.5 Goals is the official play.

Match- CF Montreal hosts Inter Miami

This week CF Montreal will host Inter Miami in what I think is an open-shut match.  CF Montreal is awful this season, with a 3-5-12 record and only 1 home win.  While that lone win came last weekend against NYCFC, I think they return to “form” with a blowout loss to Inter Miami.

Pick- Inter Miami +140

Inter Miami is just 3-3-1 on the road, but are in one of their first stretches this season of playing only 1 game per week.  After getting eliminated from the Club World Cup, they go back to focusing on rising up the Eastern Conference table.

CF Montreal is a punching bag.  Inter Miami is the cream of the league. Don’t overthink a great plus money play.

Match- Real Salt Lake hosts St. Louis City

Having two MLS matches on your playcard for MLS Week 22 seems risky, but I see another easy under as Real Salt Lake hosts St. Louis City.  While I also see RSL with a win, their -145 odds seems expensive especially with Diego Luna on international duty and Emeka Eneli out with a foot injury. I can’t bet on them, but I can take the under bet on 2.5 goals.

Pick- Under 2.5 Goals +140

Real Salt Lake has played to the over on 2.5 goals in only 25% of their home matches.  Even when they win, they aren’t really scoring a second time.  Keeping totals low favors our pick in this match.

St. Louis City has been on the losing side of a few high scoring matches, but are still only conceding 1.55 goals per match, with the over 2.5 goal total hitting in only 50% of their away matches. The likelihood that this bet cashes is right around 50/50, but it is the high price tag that has me locking this as an official play.

Match- San Diego FC hosts Houston Dynamo

My last official pick for MLS Week 22 is in the San Diego FC versus Houston Dynamo match.  I think San Diego are going to finish the season with an incredible run, and that should include a win this weekend.

While odds on San Diego are too low for an official play, I will pair that with a very small total, over 1.5 goals, to get +105 odds.

Pick- SDFC & O1.5 +105

San Diego is going to be missing a few players on injury or international duty, but it shouldn’t matter.  Anders Dreyer and Hirving Lozano will be playing, which is all I need to see.

SDFC has a +12 goal differential in 10 home matches, and have scored 14 goals in their last 4 matches.  They have had only 2 matches go under 1.5 goals, both 0-0 draws. They should win this game and they could probably hit the over without any help from the Houston Dynamo.

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