This is when we will know whether this Newcastle United transfer window was a success or not | OneFootball

The Newcastle United transfer window finally closed on Friday 30 August.

However, nine days later it still remains the big topic of conversation.

The players that were signed and sold.

Plus of course the biggest talking point, the signings that weren’t made.

One of the big additional problems is that all of these international breaks leave us with far too much time on our hands.

Things are far easier when everybody is just moving from match to match, talking before and after each game, analysing what happened on the pitch, rather than what did and didn’t happen off it.

I know everybody thinks the same but it is woeful the football calendar now, far too many pointless internationals and far too big are the breaks when they are played. For those below a certain age, they will have no idea that these international breaks are a relatively new thing, in terms of the entire past history of club and international football. Back in the day, players turned out on a Saturday for their club, then headed off to play for the national side in midweek, then back playing for their club on the Saturday. What a revolutionary idea!

Only three Premier League games into the season and already a break of two weeks, then it will be the same in October, another in November, before mercifully March 2025 the next lost of internationals.

In the first 16 weeks of this 2024/25 Premier League, Newcastle United only have 11 PL matches, the 12th will be on the weekend of Saturday 20th November when Eddie Howe’s side are home to West Ham.

Anyway, we only got three Premier League matches (and a League Cup one) before the first international break. The Newcastle United transfer window closing on Friday 30 August, two days later the win over Spurs, then a void of two weeks with no proper football and far too much time on our hands to talk about that now closed transfer window.

The question is,, when will we know whether this Newcastle United transfer window was a success or not?

I can already hear loads of you shouting at your phone, i-pad, laptop, whatever.

“It’s bloody obvious, talking absolute rubbish, we all know how this Newcastle United transfer window went, who we sold, who we signed, who we didn’t sign…”

Well, yes, that is true.

We do know who was bought and sold this summer, however, we don’t know whether it was a success or not AND won’t do so for some time.

I’m not talking here about whether Hall, Kelly and Osula will prove successes now (and beyond..), nor how Anderson and Minteh will get on this season and in the future. Though these things do contribute in some part to what I am going to say.

However, what I want to say and get across to other Newcastle United fans, is that I think only once we see what happens in January 2025 and indeed summer 2025 as well, will we then be able to judge whether this Newcastle United transfer window was a success or not.

This isn’t like it used to be where clubs could spend as little or as much as they liked.

A few of you might have heard of this PSR thing. You know, that thing that lets the usual six to do pretty much whatever they want still, whilst Newcastle United and the rest are supposed to know their place. Those clubs who have the by far highest revenues automatically having a huge advantage over the other clubs, when PSR/FFP was introduced and enforced (for the rest of us…).

Those with the largest revenues can spend the most on transfer fees and wages.

Newcastle United have to make every big money transfer count. Whilst others, especially the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United, can make massive expensive mistake (£100m Lukaku and so many others…) after mistake (£86m Antony and so many others…) and yet still be able to go again.

It is a bit like the difference between the privileged half dozen, or at least most of the six, having an assault rifle carrying 100 rounds, whilst Newcastle United and others have the equivalent of a six shooter with only half a dozen bullets.

We have to make every bullet count, whilst Man U and Chelsea can put theirs on automatic fire and shoot at will.

Anyway, enough about American owners of Premier League clubs!

Back to this Newcastle United transfer window that just closed.

Would paying £70m for Marc Guehi really have been a deal that was good for Newcastle United? Effectively firing all our available bullets on what would have been a club record signing AND the most expensive deal for any PL club in this summer’s transfer window.

This isn’t Mike Ashley, the extra money that could/would have been spent this summer hasn’t suddenly disappeared.

That cash, that PSR flex, will be simply added to the next Newcastle United transfer window(s).

I think that £70m Marc Guehi cash will be used far more effectively, maybe even some of it on… Marc Guehi, at a more realistic price in January, or even next summer, as his Palace contract rapidly counts down.

If say Newcastle United did eventually get Guehi for say £50m or less, then that means an extra £20m+ would be available to get that new first choice right winger, which clearly pretty much all Newcastle United fans are also so keen on and see as an essential signing ASAP.

Nothing is for sure but I can certainly see a scenario whereby the vast majority of Newcastle United fans are very very happy by the end of the January 2025 Newcastle United transfer window and/or the summer 2025 one.

I can see serious money getting spent by Newcastle, on the RIGHT players, at the RIGHT price. Still expensive BUT not savagely over the top so.

Last summer (2023) set a new record for spending by Premier League clubs, close to two and a half billion, yet in January 2024 only around £100m, as clubs had done their money in the summer, used their PSR flex up. The biggest deal in January was Spurs paying £21m for Dragusin. That January 2024 spending by PL clubs was over £700m down on January 2023.

Summer 2024 has seen well over two billion spent once again, all but matching the second highest ever figure for a summer window.

This January 2025 window could see Newcastle United as massive players in the market, if NUFC are in a decent position at that point, who knows what could be possible if able to sign one or two real quality players at that point, thanks to keeping our powder largely dry in summer 2024?

As Eddie Howe said, the worst possible scenario would be Newcastle United spending massive amounts of money on the wrong players. Such a stupid thing to do, just to appease the most vocal unhappy fans.

The reality is that we should really be looking these days at three years worth of transfer windows together, as due to PSR, what happened in this last Newcastle United transfer window was affected by the five windows before that, in terms of what money/PSR flex was available to spend. It will be the same with this summer 2024 NUFC transfer window, that massively impacts on January 2025 and beyond.

For me the jury is out on this summer 2024 Newcastle United transfer window and will remain so at least until end of January 2025, more likely end of summer 2025.