Flamengo defy the odds: can Brazil’s hope upset the European elite? | OneFootball

Flamengo head into the expanded 2025 Club World Cup aware that the odds are heavily stacked against them, at least in the eyes of the data experts. Recent projections from Opta's supercomputer put the Rio side’s chance of lifting the trophy at just 0.3%, identical to their Brazilian rivals Palmeiras and far behind the five European teams rated as tournament favourites.

Paris Saint-Germain, fresh off their first Champions League triumph, top the predicted rankings with an 18.5% probability of capturing the world title. Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Inter Milan, and Real Madrid fill out the next four spots, each with significantly higher chances than any South American competitor. According to Opta, PSG are expected to reach at least the round of 16 in over 90% of simulation runs.

Flamengo’s route to the final faces further complications away from the pitch. The club is in the midst of a significant backroom reshuffle, with José Boto having recently been handed extensive control over football operations. This has led to a more streamlined, disciplined structure following the appointment of president Luiz Eduardo Baptista. While Bruno Spindel has shifted to a less public-facing, administratively focused role, the transition is seen internally more as a refinement than a rupture. Flamengo hope that internal stability will support their campaign on multiple fronts, including the World Cup.

The squad itself, however, is not without its concerns. Key pieces could be on the move or out of contract by the tournament’s start. Contract talks with goalkeeper Matheus Cunha and centre-back Cleiton have stalled, raising the possibility that both might leave on free transfers if agreements can’t be reached soon. Pablo, another defender, is expected to depart by the year’s end after being sidelined for much of the current campaign. Meanwhile, speculation swirls around the future of star midfielder Gerson, who is reported to have a €25 million release clause that Zenit Saint Petersburg are poised to activate—though that transfer would only proceed after Flamengo’s World Cup run.

Despite these challenges—modest odds, potential player exits, and recent internal changes—Flamengo remain determined to make an impression. The club’s directors remain focused on assembling a competitive group and have succeeded in renewing key contracts in other areas, such as with midfielder Erick Pulgar and right-back Guillermo Varela. As the countdown to June 2025 continues, the balance between maintaining squad strength and managing off-field transitions will be critical if Flamengo are to defy the computers and mount a deep run against some of the world’s elite clubs.

Source: Globo, UOL, Lance

Photo by Franklin Jacome/Getty Images