Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 4 Leicester 0

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The Mag

·15 dicembre 2024

Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 4 Leicester 0

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

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Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Arsenal 1.31 v Everton 0.13 (0-0)

Liverpool 2.10 v Fulham 1.29 (2-2)

Newcastle 3.95 v Leicester 0.19 (4-0)

Wolves 1.24 v Ipswich 1.73 (1-2)

Forest 2.29 v Villa 0.39 (2-1)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

Villa (0.39) clearly very lucky to be leading and though Forest (2.29) left it late, totally deserved to win.

Ipswich (1.73) scored their winner in added time but clearly edged it against Wolves (1.24).

Fulham (1.29) played well at Anfield and had an extra man for all but the first 17 minutes, however, Liverpool (2.10) clearly deserving at least that 2-2 draw based on the Expected Goals stats and the other underlying stats.

Dyche’s Everton (0.13) clearly doing a very decent job of boring Arsenal (1.31) to death for that goalless draw. Arteta’s team clearly deserving to win but not creating many clear chances.

Which brings us to Newcastle United.

Eddie Howe’s NUFC having an Expected Goals stat (3.95) that was almost double that of any other Premier League team playing on Saturday. Absolutely battering Leicester (0.19) who were lucky to only lose by four, as the other underlying stats (see below) confirm. Only Everton managing an even lower Expected Goals than the Foxes, that 0.19 Expected Goals stat must have purely been pretty much down to that one second half shot from distance that Dubravka had an easy save to make at 4-0 up.

Newcastle 4 Leicester 0 – Saturday 14 December 3pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Murphy 30, 60 Bruno 47 Isak 50

Leicester:

Possession was Newcastle 60% Leicester 40%

Total shots were Newcastle 27 Leicester 4

Shots on target were Newcastle 11 Leicester 1

Corners were Newcastle 5 Leicester 2

Touches in the box Newcastle 53 Leicester 9

Newcastle team v Leicester:

Dubravka, Livramento (Trippier 65), Schar, Burn, Hall, Tonali, Bruno (Longstaff 65), Joelinton, Murphy (Barnes 65), Isak (Osula 73), Gordon (Willock 81)

Unused Subs:

Vlachodimos, Targett, Almiron, Kelly

(Newcastle 4 Leicester 0 – Match ratings and comments on all Newcastle United players – Read HERE)

(BBC Sport comments from ‘neutrals’ – Very interesting on Newcastle United after win v Leicester – Read HERE)

(Newcastle 4 Leicester 0 – Instant Newcastle United fan/writer reaction – Read HERE)

(Newcastle 4 Leicester 0 – If his next outing proves just as easy, United should be playing in the League Cup semi-finals again – Read HERE)

Wednesday 18 December – Newcastle v Brentford (7.45pm) Sky Sports+ (Carabao Cup)

Saturday 21 December – Ipswich v Newcastle (3pm)

Thursday 26 December – Newcastle v Villa (3pm) Amazon

Monday 30 December – Man U v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 4 January – Tottenham v Newcastle (12.30pm) TNT Sports

Sunday 12 January – Newcastle v Bromley (3pm) BBC iPlayer (FA Cup)