Serie A preview: Fiorentina vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

Following the defeat against Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League, AC Milan will be looking to clinch their fourth consecutive win in Serie A. Fiorentina are the opponents and since it will be away from home, a difficult clash is expected.

Milan played well for parts of the game against Leverkusen, but the first half wasn’t good enough and allowed the Germans to take control. Poor finishing let Paulo Fonseca’s men down in the end, but now full focus is on the league and bagging their fourth consecutive win.

Speaking to the media at the usual press conference earlier today, Fonseca admitted that tomorrow’s game will be difficult as Fiorentina are very different from Leverkusen, playing ‘man-to-man’. He also made it clear that he likes continuity with the starting XI.

Game date: Sunday, October 6 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST) Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi Referee: Luca Pairetto (VAR: Sozza)

Team news

In addition to Ismael Bennacer, Alessandro Florenzi and Marco Sportiello who are already on the sidelines, Fonseca will be without Davide Calabria, Luka Jovic and Ruben Loftus-Cheek tomorrow. All three are struggling with injuries – varying degrees – and will thus miss out.

However, as alluded to, this doesn’t really change anything for the Portuguese manager as he’s expected to field the usual starting XI. The only real impact it’s had is that the youngsters Francesco Camarda, Alex Jimenez and Kevin Zeroli have been called up as well.

Starting at the back, Emerson Royal will keep his spot as there are no other options for the manager, while the centre-back duo have truly asserted themselves. Indeed, Fonseca made it clear during the presser that he doesn’t want to change the pairing given how good Matteo Gabbia and Fikayo Tomori have been.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

In midfield, Youssouf Fofana continues to grow and will be looking for another strong display, having played really well in Germany. He will partner up with Tijjani Reijnders as always, while Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao will be on the flanks. The latter has good memories from facing Fiorentina and will be looking to get a goal.

Finally, Tammy Abraham and Alvaro Morata will lead the line tomorrow evening. The Spaniard started on the bench against Leverkusen as he wasn’t 100%, but he has improved a lot in the last few days and is ready to start. Also because Loftus-Cheek is unavailable, we suppose, but it’s still good to see him back.

Predicted Milan XI (4-4-2): Maignan; Emerson Royal, Gabbia, Tomori, Hernandez; Pulisic, Fofana, Reijnders, Leao; Abraham, Morata.

The opponents

Fiorentina parted ways with Vincenzo Italiano in the summer as the 46-year-old left to take over Bologna, following Thiago Motta’s move to Juventus. As a response, La Viola poached Raffaele Palladino from Monza with the hopes of keeping their project on the same path (more or less).

The start of the season has been rocky for the team, clinching seven points in six games, and above all winning just one game (4D, 1L). This is simply not good enough for a team of Fiorentina’s stature and it’s not like they have had a super difficult schedule either (0-0 against Venezia, for example).

Several important players left in the summer, such as Jack Bonaventura, Nico Gonzalez and Nikola Milenovic, but some decent signings were also made with Moise Kean, Albert Gudmundsson and Andrea Colpani. In short, you would still expect Fiorentina to do much better than what we have seen so far.

Palladino admitted during his press conference that ‘a perfect game’ will be needed to clinch all three points tomorrow, given that Milan seemingly have found their identity and are ‘healthy’. Of course, he also made it clear that he’s confident in his players.

As for the starting XI, the new arrival Davide De Gea is expected in goal, while a familiar Serie A face in Robin Gosens (also a new signing) will start on the left flank of the defence. Rolando Mandragora will lead the midfield, while Gudmundsson and Kean will be looking to combine for some dangerous attacks tomorrow evening.

Probable Fiorentina XI (4-2-3-1): De Gea; Dodo, Martinez Quarta, Renieri, Gosens; Mandragora, Cataldi; Colpani, Gudmundsson, Kouame; Kean.

Head to head

The away trip to Artemio Franchi hasn’t always been easy for Milan, especially not in recent years with two wins, one draw and two defeats in the last five games. Even Stevens, in other words, and that just goes to show how 50-50 this fixture has been at the stadium.

On the other hand, the Rossoneri won the most recent away fixture (1-2) as Leao and Loftus-Cheek found the back of the net. All goals came in the second half and within the first seven minutes as well; certainly not an ordinary turn of events.

Mike Maignan made several great saves to keep Milan in the lead after Leao’s goal, which ended up being the winner, including an outrageous save on Andrea Belotti. You can take a look at the highlights from the game below.

Key stats and facts

➤ Milan have won 78 of their 168 Serie A matches (D44 L46) against Fiorentina; only against Roma have the Rossoneri recorded more victories (80) in their top-flight history.

➤ Milan have won six of their last eight Serie A matches (L2) against Fiorentina, including each meetings last season. The last time the Rossoneri collected three wins in a row against the Viola in the top-flight was back between 2008 and 2011 (seven in that case).

➤ In the last 13 Serie A encounters at Franchi between Fiorentina and Milan, both sides have won exactly four games (5).

➤ Fiorentina have drawn four of their first six Serie A matches this season (W1 L1) for only for the fourth time in their history, after 2000/01, 1980/81 and 1941/42; only in 1980/81 did the Viola record five draws in their first seven Serie A seasonal games.

➤ Fiorentina are unbeaten in 10 (W5 D5) of their last 11 home league games, with their only defeat at home in the period coming against Milan last March (1-2).

➤ Paulo Fonseca has won his last three Serie A matches as Milan manager; only once in the top-flight has the Portuguese coach recorded four successes in a row: between July and August 2020 with Roma.

➤ Milan have scored the most Serie A goals so far this season (14) – only in the 2002-03 (19 in that case) over the previous 24 seasons have they scored more in Serie A after their first six games of the season (also 14 in 2020-21).

➤ Milan are the only team against which Moise Kean has already scored with two different teams in the Italian top-flight (17 December 2017 with Hellas Verona and 6 April 2019 with Juventus). In addition, among the strikers in Serie A this campaign, only Valentin Mihaila (-1.6) has a higher negative difference than Kean (-1.4) between goals scored and Expected Goals (two goals scored with an xG of 3.4).

➤ Christian Pulisic has scored in his last three Serie A matches but has never scored in four consecutive games in his career in the big-5 European Leagues (he also scored in three matches in a row between October and November 2019 with Chelsea).

➤ Rafael Leão has scored four goals against Fiorentina in Serie A, including his first goal in the competition (29 September 2019 at the Meazza); only against Lecce has he has scored more (five goals) in the competition. Furthermore, the Portuguese international has scored in each of his last three league matches against the Viola but has never managed to score in four consecutive matches against a single opponent in Serie A.

Ones to watch

Fofana was one of the best players for Milan in the defeat against Leverkusen, leading the team in his midfield, and he seems to have found his groove. Of course, a period of acclimatisation was always expected and it will be interesting to see if he can continue like this now.

In addition to Fofana, Abraham is another new signing that has had a positive impact on Milan. His hunger and energy are contagious, as Fonseca has said before, but now he needs to find his first goal from open play. There have been a few too many misses from him, and that needs to change.

As the stats above highlighted, Kean must be kept on a tight leash by Milan as the start to the season has been very positive for him with five goals in nine games. He has great physicality but is still quite fast, so it won’t be super easy for Gabbia and Tomori.

Then, given that Milan have had some struggles on the right defensively, the attacking-minded left-back Gosens could be looking to cause some trouble. He will try to link up with Kouame and it will be important for Emerson Royal to keep his position.

Prediction

Milan are in good form despite the mid-week defeat and a strong lineup will be fielded, with Morata back from start. As such, also considering that Fiorentina have struggled so far, the Rossoneri are the clear favourites and the favourites is that they will clinch a win.

Fiorentina 1-3 Milan