A Look at the Numbers: How Sheffield United Defeat to Leeds Has Impacted Championship Promotion Race | OneFootball

After Sheffield United fell to a bitterly disappointing defeat late on to Leeds United on Monday night, everyone in the Blades’ camp will now be feeling a little more nervous about the race for promotion, with only a few months left in this Championship campaign.

The Blades initially took the lead due to an own goal by Leeds’ goalkeeper Illan Meslier in the first half. However, the away side mounted a late comeback in the final 20 minutes, with goals from Junior Firpo, Ao Tanaka, and Joel Piroe, securing their position at the top of the table by five points.

Sheffield United: Defensive Frailties Since Major Injury Blow

SHEFFIELD, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 24: Junior Firpo of Leeds United scores his teams first goal during the Sky Bet Championship match between Sheffield United FC and Leeds United FC at Bramall Lane on February 24, 2025 in Sheffield, England. (Photo by George Wood/Getty Images)

Chris Wilder’s defence, which had been notably strong for much of this season, conceding an average of just 0.5 goals per game in the Championship, has got more leaky in recent weeks. Now, that number has increased by 0.3.

A huge part of the regression at the back is due to United losing standout Championship defender Harry Souttar. United’s defence registered 13 clean sheets in the 20 Championship starts Souttar made, meaning the Australian international helped the Blades keep a clean sheet in 65% of his games. Since Souttar’s season-ending injury, Chris Wilder’s men have kept a clean sheet three times in 11 league matches, a clean sheet rate of 27%, thus a significant drop-off.

Offensive Struggles For Sheffield United

While many wouldn’t like to admit it, Sheffield United have rode their luck for a lot of this campaign; often performing below par but managing to eke out positive results. Creatively, United have not been great for most of the season, but this has been highlighted even more so since the defence has got worse without the commanding presence of Souttar.

In terms of expected goals per game from non-penalty situations, United rank 10th in the league, averaging just 1.24 per game. On the other hand, they have maintained a very good conversion rate throughout the term – 10.6% – fourth-best in the league.

If you compare this to Burnley though, United’s numbers look good; the Clarets have averaged just 1.02 expected goals per game from non-penalty situations, 7th worst in the league. They also have a bang average conversion rate of 9.8%.

Expected League Positions: Which Teams Are Overachieving?

When talking about the expected league positions, you’re essentially looking at an estimation of where a team should be in the league table based on its underlying performance metrics rather than their actual results. The Opta ‘expected’ table uses expected points (xP), which are taken from the teams’ expected goals (xG) for and against numbers.

The actual top six reads as follows (after 34 games):

This is how the expected table looks (after 34 games):

What does this mean in terms of using this as an indication? Well, it shows you which teams have overachieved or underachieved their xP total so far. And, for what it’s worth, I’d rather be a team that is slightly underachieving their xP total down the stretch, rather than be a team that is massively overachieving it. Why? Because massively overachieving this number indicates that you are in your current position due to huge amounts of luck, and it suggests that picking up points, at your current rate, is not sustainable, indicating regression in form.

To summarise, Sheffield United and Burnley are unhealthily overachieving at this stage according to underlying metrics. Whereas, Coventry City, Blackburn Rovers and West Bromwich Albion, look like the healthier teams in the play-off hunt, because their points totals are closely matching their performances.

In Coventry’s case, they have been underachieving, and near the top of the ‘expected’ league table for most of the season, but now they have huge momentum on their side and they are just a point outside of the ‘actual’ play-off places.

What Does the Opta Predictions Say About the Championship Promotion Race?

SHEFFIELD, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 24: Tom Cannon of Sheffield United reacts following the Sky Bet Championship match between Sheffield United FC and Leeds United FC at Bramall Lane on February 24, 2025 in Sheffield, England. (Photo by George Wood/Getty Images)

Earlier in the season, the Opta supercomputer had increased Sheffield United’s promotion chances from 5.8% pre-season to 40.7% by October, to 61.7% ahead of kick-off before the Leeds game, reflecting their impressive form at that time.  However, this recent setback against the Whites has massively impacted these numbers. This number has dropped down to 45.6%.

In addition, the main threat of the chasing pack, Burnley, has seen their chance of promotion go from 42.9% (pre Sheffield United vs Leeds United kick-off) to 54.5%.

The predicted points total for the current top three sees Leeds United win the league with 100 points. Burnley finishing as runners-up with 91 points. And the Blades missing out on automatic promotion by a single point.

As things stand, United are second and have a two-point advantage over third place Burnley, but the Lancashire outfit have a mighty advantage in terms of goal difference. Plus, they still have to host the Blades, with the benefit of being at home weighing heavy in these Opta end-of-season predictions.

All stats taken from Opta.