📊 Opta predicts Inter top, Napoli struggling, Roma ahead of Juve, Milan | OneFootball

August is the month of predictions. At the bar, on social media, during breaks at the Fantasy Football auction. But there are those who don't talk: they calculate.

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The Opta Predictor is a supercomputer that lines up data and numbers. It leaves no room for gut feelings: the strength, and perhaps also the flaw, of one of the most advanced mathematical models in the football world.

What is the Opta Predictor

Based on strengths and weaknesses, historical results, and performance indices, the Opta Predictor simulates the league 10,000 times. From there, it produces the probabilities for the Scudetto, Champions, Europa League, and even the final standings. A cold, but precise snapshot to which we try to give some reasoning.

Why Inter is the Big Favorite

Inter leads the projections with a 36.09% chance of winning the Scudetto: almost triple that of Napoli. An estimated 76 points at the end of the season, enough to stay ahead of everyone. Champions League? Almost a given: 78.25%.

The algorithm sees a solid team that has kept its most important players and not only that: they’ve brought in others. Objectively, today’s Inter has more options than the one that reached the Champions League final, and Opta knows this.

However, subtleties are hard to quantify: does the switch from Inzaghi to Chivu have an exact success rate? No one can know, also because Chivu’s numbers as a professional might not be enough for statistical analysis.

Napoli is Not the Favorite

Defending champions, a strengthened squad, Antonio Conte on the bench. Their credentials are those of the team to beat. And yet, for Opta, that’s not the case. Napoli starts behind. Well behind. Maybe it’s because of the double European commitment, maybe it’s the trust placed in Inter: the supercomputer sees it this way.

13.25% chance of winning the Scudetto, almost a third of Inter’s. Conte said it: “We have to be a thorn in the side of Inter, Juve, and Milan”. But for the supercomputer, that might not be enough.

Atalanta Almost Like Napoli

New coach, top scorer Retegui sold, and a “Lookman case” shaking things up. Yet, for the supercomputer, Juric’s Atalanta remains up there, almost hand in hand with Napoli.

The simulations give them a 13.18% chance of the Scudetto and over 51% chance of returning to the Champions League. A clear signal: for Opta, Bergamo doesn’t give in to change. La Dea changes its face, but not its ambition.

Roma Better Than Milan and Juventus

Behind the top two, the surprise is Roma. A year ago, the Scudetto was possible at 0.8%, today the final victory is at 10.29%. The Gasperini effect, which enhances players and brings the Giallorossi closer to the Champions League (45.92%).

For Milan, Massimiliano Allegri’s track record speaks for itself. The algorithm overlooks the offensive imperfections of Max’s recent seasons, and perhaps the coach himself would agree: "When you’re not attacking, you shouldn’t be ashamed to defend well, because the ultimate goal is the result you have to achieve by any means". But what is that result? Not first place for Opta: 7.46% chance of the Scudetto and 37.70% for the Champions League.

Juventus under Tudor collects numbers similar to Milan, but in different ways: no upheavals, great consistency, and a calmer environment without the need for rebuilding. For the Bianconeri, there’s a 7.33% chance of the Scudetto and 38.29% of reaching the Champions League.

Champions League Race

The others look at fourth place as a possible goal. Lazio (4.70% Scudetto – 29.68% Champions League), Bologna (3.29% – 24.45%), and Fiorentina (2.95% – 21.50%) are vying for the outsider role.

And then there are Como and Torino, small surprises with potential for growth. Low percentages, but Opta includes them as possible exploits.

Full Predicted Standings

Ten thousand simulations produced this ranking:

How many positions will the Supercomputer get right? The answer will come at the end of May 2026.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.

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