Euro 2024 Outright Betting: Back German stars at 33/1 and 66/1 | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Germany's Joshua Kimmich is a huge threat from right-back

The Euro 2024 knockout stages are upon us and Mark Stinchcombe is back to review the outright markets and pick out some big priced bets...

England v Slovakia Superboost

Betfair customers have voted for Sunday's Superboost to be 'England NOT to have a shot in the first 10 minutes (v Slovakia)'. They clearly know their stuff, as the Three Lions have failed to have a single attempt in the opening 10 minutes of any of their three Euro 2024 games so far.

The selection has had a (super) boost up to 3/1!

Euro 2024 winner

This is one of the most wide open tournaments at the knockout stage. We've seen 36 games of football but at the top of the market there hasn't been too much movement in terms of favouritism. England lead the way at 10/3 on the Betfair Sportsbook followed by Spain 9/2, Germany 11/2, France 11/2 and Portugal 13/2.

That quartet are all on the other side of the draw to England. After that we have Netherlands 12/1, forecasted to meet surprise package Austria 16/1 in the quarter-finals. Meanwhile, if Gareth Southgate's men beat Slovakia, they'll take on Italy 16/1 or Switzerland 28/1.

It really is a minefield, with five teams 13/2 or shorter, and four of them have to navigate each other! With England just 1/7 to qualify against Slovakia, you can understand why the Three Lions are so short, and another semi-final/final is on the cards.

However, if England reach the final (they are only 6/5 to get there), it's likely they'll be underdogs if one of the other 'big five' make it which very much reflects the 10/3.

A reminder that Southgate's record against top-10 ranked FIFA sides is just W7 D6 L10 with England scoring just 24 goals in that 23-game sample.

Player of the Tournament

Jamal Musiala, Jude Bellingham and Toni Kroos all head this market at 8/1. Musiala has been in fine form for the hosts with two goals. Kroos has been pulling the strings from deep averaging over 100 passes per-game (by far the most in the tournament), with the fairytale of it being his last tournament before he retires.

But other than a header after 13 minutes of the opening game against Serbia, I'm not sure what Bellingham has done. Like a lot of the England players, the Real Madrid may find that fatigue is catching up with him after over 100 games in the last two seasons.

Kylian Mbappe comes next at 10/1 but he missed a game with his broken nose so lost a whole match to shine. His French teammate N'Golo Kante has been the biggest mover in the market from 80/1 to 12/1 following two man-of-the-match awards.

I don't really feel there's been a standout player of the tournament so far, particularly with the bigger teams resting and rotating in the third game or playing without motivation. So with it likely to go to a finalist, and thus a player who plays seven games, there is still plenty of time to impress in a tournament where five teams are fighting for favouritism between 10/3 and 13/2.

There are 16 players who are 25/1 or shorter so I've looked outside that bracket to find a player for a favourite given how wide open it is.

Kai Havertz is 66/1 which seems enormous when you consider his team mates in Musiala (8/1 - two goals), Kroos (8/1), Wirtz (20/1 - one goal) and Gundogan (25/1 - one goal and one assist). Havertz is the lone striker for the tournament's home team who are 11/2 third faves.

He has the joint most Germany goal contributions (one goal and one assist) but could easily have more goals. He's fourth in the competition for expected goals, averaging 4.3 shots per-90, 2.1 shots-on-target per-90 and sits third for expected goals-on-target. He's 16/1 for the golden boot but this feels a much better bet.

Most Assists

Another market that looks up for grabs given is lead by Dennis Man 8/1 (Romania), Orkun Kokcu 25/1 (Turkey) and Remo Freuler 16/1 (Switzerland) with only two assists, all who play for sides favourite to exit this stage in their respective matches.

Looking through the players on one assist or who rank highly for key passes (a pass that leads to a shot at goal), there aren't many who stand out. Since the expansion to 24 teams in EURO 2016, four assists has been enough to win it, but given all but three players are on one or fewer, three could even be enough, especially if we have a low scoring knockout round.

The player I really like here ticks both boxes for already being on an assist and ranks fourth for key passes per-game (3.0), as well as joint top for expected assists. Yet there are 16 players who are a shorter price. The man is Germany right-back Joshua Kimmich who looks a huge price at 33/1 each-way (1/4 Odds, 4 Places). He's the standout candidate and over the course of his career from right-back, he's registered massive 34 assists in 118 games for club and country.

Now check out Opta's Euro 2024 Last 16 Preview

Recommended bets