Euro 2024 Last 16 Opta Preview: Mbappe to make his mark and 11/4 England bet | OneFootball

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The Opta stats indicate that Mbappe is good first goalscorer bet against Belgium

Opta preview the round of 16 at Euro 2024 and recommend bets on Kylian Mbappe putting France on their way to victory over Belgium and Anthony Gordon to have an impact for England against Slovakia...

The group stage at Euro 2024 is done and dusted, and the 16 teams in with a shot of lifting the trophy on July 14 are locked in.

A dramatic final set of group games had a major bearing on the outright betting, with England now 3/1 tournament favourites despite producing three underwhelming performances en route to topping Group C, the latest being a drab goalless draw with Slovenia.

The main reason for that is the next four teams in the betting - Spain, Germany, France and Portugal - all landed on the opposite side of the bracket, with some heavyweight clashes likely down the line.

But which teams are most likely to navigate the first knockout round? With the help of Opta data, we can bring you the best bets in our preview.

Long night likely in Berlin for Switzerland v Italy

The first knockout game at this year's tournament could go the distance, as Switzerland take on Italy at the Olympiastadion in Berlin.

Both teams, of course, went to spot-kicks twice at Euro 2020, Switzerland overcoming France before succumbing to Spain in the last eight. The Azzurri, meanwhile, beat La Roja in the semi-finals before dealing England more penalty heartache in the final.

Fifteen of Italy's last 26 tournament knockout matches have gone to extra-time, including four of their last five. Since the start of the 2016 tournament, meanwhile, the Swiss have more Euros draws (eight) than any other team. A price of 7/2 for either team to win on penalties looks enticing.

Fullkrug form to continue for Germany against Denmark

He may not boast the silky skills of Jamal Musiala or the languid style of Kai Havertz, but Niclas Fullkrug has played a crucial part for Germany at their home tournament.

The Borussia Dortmund striker has two goals in just 73 minutes off the bench, his last-gasp equaliser versus Switzerland ensuring Julian Nagelsmann's team topped Group A.

He has been absolutely clinical, netting twice from three shots worth a combined total of just 0.54 expected goals (xG).

With opponents Denmark drawing all three group games, Fullkrug may be needed late on and his 15/8 anytime goalscorer price could be worth a punt.

Gordon to give England new threat against Slovakia?

It's fair to say England did not set Group C alight, being booed off after tepid draws with Denmark and Slovenia after an underwhelming opening win over Serbia.

Only Scotland (0.95) and Serbia (2.11) created a lower xG figure than the Three Lions (2.19) in the group stage, but Gareth Southgate could make an attacking change for Sunday's meeting with Slovakia after Phil Foden left the camp for the birth of his third child.

Possible replacement Anthony Gordon had a team-high 81 shots for Newcastle United in the Premier League in 2023-24, with 54.4% of those hitting the target.

He could also come up against a 37-year-old marker in Peter Pekarik, so 11/4 on him to register two shots on target is tempting.

Spain to keep things tight against Georgia

Spain won all three of their group-stage matches without conceding, becoming just the second team to accomplish that feat at the Euros after eventual champions Italy did so at the 2020 tournament.

While surprise package Georgia carry a threat on the break, a Spain team that faced just 10 shots on target in a difficult pool can be backed to win a game containing under 2.5 goals at 21/10.

Mbappe's to score first for France against Belgium

Kylian Mbappe had a dreadful time at Euro 2020, and things have not gone much better at this year's tournament, a broken nose causing him to miss France's second game versus the Netherlands before a 1-1 draw with Poland saw them finish as Group D runners-up.

An awkward tie with Belgium now awaits Les Bleus, but Mbappe - who had six shots totalling 1.31 xG and scored from the spot versus Poland - could make the difference.

Apart from Mbappe's penalty in that game, the only other France goal at the tournament so far was an Austria own goal. At 7/2, it is certainly worth backing him to be the first goalscorer against a Belgium team that looked vulnerable to pace in their draw with Ukraine.

Portugal to dominate in Georgia clash

Portugal may have slipped to a 2-0 defeat to Georgia on matchday three, but most of their stars - Cristiano Ronaldo aside - were rested with top spot already in the bag.

Things should be different against Slovenia, who inched through with three draws in Group C. Only five teams - Scotland among them - faced more shots than Slovenia (43) in the group stage, and Portugal's quality should shine through. They are 1/1 to win both halves, as they did with a full-strength team versus Turkiye.

Awkward evening in store for Oranje?

The Netherlands are yet to impress at Euro 2024, finishing third in Group D following their 3-2 defeat to an inspired Austria side, while their only victory was somewhat fortunate as Wout Weghorst made the difference off the bench against Poland.

With Ronald Koeman's team lacking a top-class number nine, Romania could give them an uncomfortable evening. There is little value available in backing the Dutch, so 10/3 about the draw in 90 minutes may appeal to some.

Austria to thrill again

Austria have been the standout performers at Euro 2024 thus far, edging out France and the Netherlands to impressively top Group D with a thrilling win over the Oranje.

Ralf Rangnick's team are, however, yet to keep a clean sheet at the tournament, and Turkiye showed their attacking quality in entertaining wins over Georgia and Czechia. A price of 11/4 around Austria to win in 90 minutes and both teams to score looks to be great value.

Last-16 Acca: What the Opta supercomputer says

The Opta supercomputer sees Italy versus Switzerland as the most evenly matched last-16 tie, giving the Azzurri a 53% chance of advancing to their opponents' 47%.

England (82%) and Spain (82%) are seen as overwhelmingly likely to reach the last eight, with Portugal (76%) and Germany (70%) also well fancied. France (68%), the Netherlands (68%) and Austria (60%) are also backed to advance, but they should face tough tests.

Now head to our Euro 2024 HUB for more content on day eight!

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