Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Parma – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

Following the crucial mid-week win against Girona, AC Milan will be looking to build some momentum as they take on Parma on Sunday afternoon. For Sergio Conceicao’s men, it’s all or nothing as a win is needed.

Milan continued their positive run in the Champions League on Wednesday, beating Girona by the odd goal at San Siro. They have won five on the trot in the competition and could clinch a top 8 finish next week against Dinamo Zagreb.

Now, however, they will need to focus on Parma and a win is desperately needed. The situation in the standings is still dire and the Rossoneri simply can not afford to drop more points, even if Serie A were to get five UCL spots for next season.

Game date: Sunday, January 26 Kick-off time: 12:30 (CET) Venue: San Siro Referee: Rosario Abisso (VAR: Camplone)

Team news

The good news for Conceicao is that things are looking up on the injury front. Emerson Royal was added to the list, of course, but Davide Calabria and Filippo Terracciano are both available and will be able to cover that role until Kyle Walker gets into top shape.

In addition to Noah Okafor who was on the bench against Girona, Samuel Chukwueze has also recovered from his injury and this is indeed a boost. Granted that he hasn’t been in the best of form, not having Yunus Musah as the only right-wing alternative is certainly good.

Christian Pulisic came off the bench against Girona and has regained top fitness, or close to it anyway, and will start tomorrow. Adding the fact that Ismael Bennacer looks in much better condition now, the squad situation is the best it has been under Conceicao’s time at the club.

Photo by AC Milan

In the heart of the defence, Matteo Gabbia is expected to team up with Fikayo Tomori despite the good performance of Strahinja Pavlovic mid-week. This could have something to do with the mercato, or it’s merely a case of giving the Serbian some rest after playing his first game in a while.

A few reports suggested that Youssouf Fofana could get some rest for this game, but there have been conflicting updates on this front in recent hours. What’s clear is that Ismael Bennacer will be one of the starters, while Tijjani Reijnders will have the more advanced ‘No.10 role’.

In attack, there are absolutely no surprises as Pulisic and Rafael Leao will occupy a flank each, with Alvaro Morata in the middle. The Spaniard certainly needs to step things up after struggling to contribute with goals, hence why Milan are keen on signing Santiago Gimenez.

It should be noted that Fofana is one yellow card away from suspension, so he needs to be very careful if he starts. The derby against Inter is up next and not having the Frenchman in that game would be a huge blow, which perhaps could lead to him starting on the bench tomorrow.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Gabbia, Tomori, Hernandez; Fofana/Musah, Bennacer; Pulisic, Reijnders, Leao; Morata.

The opponents

For Parma, it has been a season with ups and downs as you would expect. They were certainly mentioned in the relegation predictions before the campaign started, but they were not exactly the favourites to go down. 21 games later, though, relegation is very much a concrete risk.

The manager Fabio Pecchia has some good players at his disposal, such as Dennis Man and Emanuele Valeri, which has resulted in big wins against Milan and Lazio. However, they have clinched just four wins in total and have relied mostly on draws (they had five in a row at one point!).

The Tardini side have not won since the start of the year, registering two draws and one defeat, so the feeling is that they must turn things around to really push away from the relegation zone. Jacob Ondrejka and Milan Djuric have both been brought in this month, but whether these signings will make the difference remains to be seen.

Ondrejka (Photo by Parma)

As confirmed by the matchday squad announced by Parma, Ange-Yoan Bonny will miss out on the game due to fever. The 21-year-old has four goals and two assists this season, so it could definitely be described as a blow for Pecchia’s side.

Taking a look at the predicted XI for the away side, it looks like Man will get the chance from start again – who hasn’t been brilliant lately amid exit rumours – while the new signing Djuric will replace Bonny up front. Djuric will give the Milan defenders a run for their money in the aerial duels, that’s for sure.

Predicted Parma XI (4-2-3-1): Suzuki; Delprato, Vogliacco, Valenti, Valeri; Keita, Sohm; Man, Hernani, Mihaila; Djuric.

Head to head

Milan and Parma have faced each other 71 times across all competitions, with the Rossoneri winning 37 of these (17 draws and 17 defeats). It’s an expected advantage that has been clear in recent times too, with only one defeat in the last nine encounters.

However, that one defeat came in the most recent meeting between the sides, as Parma prevailed 2-1 in the reverse fixture. It was only the second game of the season and due to shambolic defending, the Gialloblu were able to score twice – including cancelling out a Christain Pulisic equaliser.

For the last game at San Siro between Milan and Parma, we have to go back to the 2020-21 season when Theo Hernandez scored a brace to salvage a point. In the grand scheme of things, it ended up being an important point for the return to the Champions League.

Key facts and stats

➤ Only Roma (34) have won more Serie A games against Parma than Milan (29), with 14 draws and 12 Gialloblù wins in their 55 previous meetings. However, following their 2-1 win in August, the Ducali could enjoy two league victories in a row against the Rossoneri for the first time since the 2013/14 campaign (3-2 and 4-2 wins under Roberto Donadoni).

➤ Milan have lost just one of their last 20 home matches against Parma in Serie A, recording 15 wins and four draws in the process. Overall, among sides they have faced at least 20 times at home in the three points for a win era, only against Cagliari (79%) do the Rossoneri boast a higher win rate at home than the Ducali (70% – 16/23).

➤ This season Milan have won fewer than 35 points from their opening 20 Serie A games (31) for the first time since the 2019/20 campaign (28), when they finished the season in sixth place; the last time the Rossoneri ended the campaign in one of the top four positions after having won 31 points or fewer at this stage of the season was back in 2012/13 (3rd).

➤ After their defeat against Juventus last time out, Milan could lose two matches in a row in Serie A for the first time since doing so between January and February 2023 (three in that case, against Lazio, Sassuolo and Inter).

➤ Milan have drawn four of their last five home games in Serie A (W1), including each of their last three – in the three points for a win era, only once have the Rossoneri recorded four consecutive home draws in the top-flight (between October 1994 and January 1995 – a run that included a match against Parma).

➤ After a run of three consecutive defeats, Parma have since lost only one of their last four Serie A games (W1 D2), earning the same points tally as Milan in that period (5), but while recording a better goal difference than the Rossoneri (0 for the Ducali, -1 for the Diavolo).

➤ Milan (50) and Parma (42) are the two sides that have recorded the most direct attacks in Serie A this season (open play sequences that starts just inside the team’s own half and has at least 50% of movement towards the opposition’s goal and ends in a shot or a touch in the opposition box) and are also the two teams that have recorded the most shots following a fast break in the Italian top-flight this season (27 for the Gialloblù, 26 for the Rossoneri).

➤ Only Inter (7) have more players with at least three goals scored in Serie A this season than Milan and Parma (both 5 – level with Atalanta and Napoli).

➤ Only against Venezia (4) has Theo Hernández scored more Serie A goals than Parma (3 – same as against Torino). With an assist, the Milan player could become the first defender to both score three or more goals and assist three or more goals in each of the last six seasons in the big five European leagues (PSG’s Achraf Hakimi is currently on two goals and five assists this season).

➤ Dennis Man is the Parma player that has been involved in the most Serie A goals this season (7 – four goals and three assists) and, overall, he is both the top scorer (28) and top assister (13) for the Ducali in all competitions since he joined the club in January 2021. After his goal in the reverse fixture earlier this season, the Rossoneri could become the first side against which Man manages to find the net in both seasonal matches in the Italian top-flight.

Ones to watch

Starting with Milan, it will be very interesting to see Christian Pulisic back from start. We all know how important and decisive the American can be, and the Rossoneri need his help now more than ever. It’s also an opportunity for him to bag his first league goal since October.

At the back, if Milan Djuric were to start for Parma, Fikayo Tomori should have a lot to do. Milan have been far from brilliant on dead balls and crosses this season and Djuric is a striker who loves a good header. He will likely target the Englishman rather than Matteo Gabbia as well.

For the away side, there is no arguing that Dennis Man has the quality to be decisive. As mentioned, the last few weeks have been a bit strange due to the exit rumours, but now is an opportunity to give the Parma fans a proper thank you if a departure is indeed on the cards.

The aforementioned Djuric is the final pick here, simply because he has caused a lot of problems for Milan in the past. Nearly two meters tall, he’s very hard to stop in the aerial duels and the Rossoneri thus need to limit the crosses.

Prediction

Milan are the favourites to win this game, there is no doubt about that, but the form has been rather questionable in the league lately. Playing at San Siro hasn’t made much of a difference either, so there is some cause for concern. That being said, the Rossoneri should get the job done.

Milan 2-0 Parma