La Liga Tips: Back ambitious Celta Vigo to snatch result against Real Madrid | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

Claudio Giraldez's Celta Vigo are tough to beat on home soil

La Liga is back and as is Jamie Kemp to preview three interesting fixtures on MD10, including an ambitious shout for Real Madrid to drop points in Vigo...

Girona v Real Sociedad - Sat, 17:30

This will be the ninth top-flight meeting between Girona and Real Sociedad, and Saturday's hosts are - rather surprisingly - still looking for their first such victory (D6 L2).

Half of these eight games have taken place under the two current managers, with Imanol Alguacil going unbeaten against Michel across the previous two campaigns (W1 D3). In fact, Real Sociedad are the only opponent in La Liga that Girona haven't managed to beat since they returned to the top-flight in 2022.

When these two sides met in this exact fixture last season, Real Sociedad put the brakes on Girona in a way that very few managed to replicate when facing them away from home last term (bearing in mind that the 2023-24 Girona was a different beast to the current version).

Since the start of last season, Real Sociedad's 0-0 draw at Montilivi last term is one of only two instances where Girona failed to create 1+ expected goal in a home league game (0.72). The other was Rafa Benitez's Celta Vigo (0.63) in October 2023, who did so by sitting deep and being dominated in possession terms. Real Sociedad, meanwhile, actually had more possession in their goalless draw.

After a confidence-building 3-0 win against Valencia and a 1-1 draw against Atletico Madrid in which they were the better side last time out, I'm going to go with Real Sociedad to pick up a signature victory here. They look to have recovered their legs after a tricky start to the season, and they've got a solid track record of giving Girona a hard time.

Celta Vigo v Real Madrid - Sat, 20:00

Claudio Giraldez is probably the most popular man in Vigo at the moment, and after signing a now contract until 2027 earlier this week, it's safe to say things are looking pretty positive around the club. After the failed Rafa Benitez project, they have righted the ship in impressively quick time.

The Galician side come into the weekend in 9th position in La Liga, and have been one of the division's big entertainers so far this season. One only need to look at the goals scored and conceded column in the table to see as much. Celta have scored the fourth-most goals in the division (16), while only three sides have conceded more than them (15).

While they're a team still very much in the early stages of what could be something special further down the line, the one thing Celta do particularly well is keep the ball. If their opponents aren't dialled in with their pressing or get caught between pressing sporadically, Giraldez's side know how to make them suffer. And against a Real Madrid side whose biggest weak point this season has been precisely that, the home side should get some joy.

Celta Vigo rank fourth in La Liga for 10+ pass sequences in open play this term (143), and they've made a habit of making their possession craft count too. Of the seven goals scored after the longest passing sequences in La Liga this season, three of those have been achieved by Celta. They've also scored the most goals (4) from moves featuring at least 10 passes.

There are obvious risks to backing against a Real Madrid win given their unbelievable league form, but I'm going to go with Celta to get themselves a result here. Between their quality on the ball, the positive atmosphere surrounding the club, and Real Madrid having plenty of players coming back off international duty, the ingredients are there for Celta to take something.

I'll also throw in a card for Eder Militao, to earn us a chunky 15/2 double. The Brazilian has made the joint-most fouls for Real Madrid in La Liga this season (13) and there's some talk he could be forced to right back due to Dani Carvajal's injury, where he'd be up against the tricky Hugo Alvarez.

Atletico Madrid v Leganes - Sun, 15:15

2024-25 is going to be a long old season for Leganes. Borja Jimenez's side have only scored two goals across their last seven matches in La Liga (D4 L3), while their only victory in the competition so far this term came at home to Las Palmas - the only side to have already sacked a manager.

In more bad news for them, Atletico Madrid rarely have problems when facing promoted sides on their own patch. Across the entire Diego Simeone era, they've only lost one of 38 home matches against sides who've come up from Segunda, winning 34 of those games (D3). Across all of those, Atletico have scored 87 goals and only conceded 17 times in return.

For Leganes, their approach to survival in La Liga looks to be based around trying to have as little as possible happen on the pitch. Their nine games so far have produced a combined 17.4 xG, which is only marginally not the lowest figure in the league (Getafe with 17.1). Leganes have also attempted the fewest shots (80) in the division, and struggle to turn their deep defending into meaningful attacks often enough.

To their credit, Borja Jimenez's side do have decent defensive record, conceding an average of a goal per game so far this term. However, sitting deep away to Atletico and trying to soak up pressure has rarely paid off in recent times. Simeone's side are a strong outfit on home soil, tend to play higher up the pitch, and do a good job of penning teams in under a wave of attacks.

Only two of the last 34 sides to face Atletico away from home in La Liga have kept a clean sheet, while the hosts have scored 15 goals in their last six home matches against promoted teams (2.5 per game). That seems reason enough to back another free-scoring Atletico display here.

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