How AC Milan secure top eight in the Champions League and last 16 seeding explained

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·29 de enero de 2025

How AC Milan secure top eight in the Champions League and last 16 seeding explained

AC Milan will know their final placement in the first phase of the Champions League tonight, after playing Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia.

Milan moved into sixth spot in the UCL table after last week’s win against Girona, and now the equation is a simple one: win in the Croatian capital to secure that spot in the top eight of the competition.

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All the matches will be played simultaneously tonight, starting at 21:00 CET. It promises to be 90 minutes of drama because – beyond the Rossoneri’s fate – there are some big teams that are scrapping just to be in the play-off places.

Why is the top eight so important? It secures direct qualification for the last 16, with the teams in the middle 16 places having to play a play-off to fill qualify for that stage.

How do Milan get top eight?

As mentioned, Milan are in sixth place with 15 points, with a goal difference of +4 and have an excellent chance of qualifying among the top eight. The Rossoneri will face Fabio Cannavaro’s Dinamo Zagreb, who can actually get into the play-offs but are two points adrift.

Milan know that with a win they will finish at least sixth, with the possibility of jumping as high as third (presuming no huge goal swing involving Barcelona). In doing so, they would obviously secure a top eight spot too.

A draw might be enough too, though. In that case there would be five teams currently in the play-off spots who could catch Milan on 16 points, but two of them (Lille and Feyenoord) play each other, meaning both can’t win and at least one will drop points.

Aston Villa play Celtic (which they should win), but Monaco are away at Inter and Brest host Real Madrid. In short, it would be quite unlucky if Milan were to draw and finish below eighth, and even then goal difference may come into it (only Villa currently have better).

What happens then?

At the end of the league phase, the teams ranked 1 to 8 qualify directly for the round of 16. Teams finishing between 9th and 24th compete in a two-legged play-off to secure a place in the last 16. Teams finishing 25th or lower are eliminated from all European competitions.

As UEFA explain, for the knockout phase play-offs the clubs that finish 9th to 16th in the league phase will be seeded and those that finish 17th to 24th will be unseeded.

For the round of 16, clubs that finish 1st to 8th in the league phase will be seeded and will play against the winners of the knockout phase play-offs, who will be unseeded. In the knock-out phase play-offs and round of 16, seeded teams play the second leg at home.

The seeding position determines each club’s path in the knockout phase from the play-offs through to the final. The higher the teams finish in the league phase ranking, the higher their seeding position will be for the knock-out phase of the competition.

Effectively, the higher a team finishes within each section (top eight or middle 16), the better their route to the later stages of the tournament will be.

For example, via Sky:

➤ If a team finishes first or second, they will skip the knockout play-offs and play one of the winners of the matches between the 17th/18th and 15th/16th seeds in the round of 16.

➤ If a team finishes seventh or eighth, they will skip the knockout play-offs and play one of the winners of the matches between the ninth/10th and 23rd/24th seeds in the round of 16.

➤ If a team finishes 15th or 16th, they will play either the 17th or 18th seed in the knockout play-offs, followed by the first or second seed in the round of 16.

➤ If a team finishes 21st or 22nd, they will play either the 11th or 12th seed in the knockout play-offs, followed by the fifth or sixth seed in the round of 16.

Essentially the higher a team places, the better chance they have of avoiding another higher seed early in the knockout phase.

The best way to demonstrate the above is to show how the bracket currently looks going into the final game, which will obviously change as the teams move positions.