Europa Conference League: Why Chelsea are a huge lay at 1.6 for European glory | OneFootball

Chelsea are [1.6] to win the Conference League

In his latest Notebook, Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - is adding another bet to his ante post portfolio, outlining why Chelsea are a huge lay on the Betfair Exchange at 1.6 to win the Conference League...

Chelsea at 1.6 must be taken on

Chelsea's Conference League price hasn't fluctuated since December - but it should have based on their downturn in results. They can be laid on the Betfair Exchange at 1.6 to win the competition outright. It's a crazy price when they still have to play five matches to lift the trophy.

This current price is based upon the Chelsea of pre-Christmas where they were on the coattails of Liverpool and Arsenal in the Premier League title race. On Christmas Day they were second, just four points off the top. Yet, after a run of eight straight wins that took them to such dizzying heights, they have since won six of their last 16 games in all competitions (D3 L7).

Those wins came against the mighty Morecombe, Wolves, West Ham, Southampton, Leicester and FC Copenhagen.

This is a team lacking in confidence and inspiration in the final third - as shown by their non-existent attacking performance away at Arsenal before the break. It's now just three goals scored in their last seven away games in the Premier League. The injury to Nicolas Jackson has hit them hard but reports are positive that he'll be back after the international break but the latest injury setback to an out-of-form Cole Palmer, who has pulled out of England duty with a muscle issue, will be something Chelsea fans will be sweating about.

Premier League dominance waning?

The markets have a very high opinion of Premier League teams in Europe - but is this perceived dominance of English clubs actually based on sound logic?

Many will point at the UEFA club coefficient rankings which have England on 109.9 points, over 14 points clear of their closest rivals in Spain meaning an English team will get an extra automatic Champions League spot next season. However, the places allocated to each country are based on performance over the previous five seasons, not the here and the now.

The Premier League has been a fascinating league to follow this season but only because the quality of the traditional elite teams have dropped significantly, allowing the likes of Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Brighton to gatecrash the party towards the top.

It's easy to forget that no English team made it past the quarter-finals of the Europa League or Champions League last season and the team powering clear at the top of the division this season in Liverpool have just been eliminated, fair and square, by PSG in the Champions League, who also thumped Manchester City 4-2 in the league phase.

Yes, Chelsea have such prestige and history in Europe but this is a club at the start of a huge rebuild in terms of strategy which is leading to huge inconsistencies in terms of results and progress. They currently sit fourth in the Premier League but it's a hugely condensed league with just five points separating them at 10th place.

When trying to accurately compare how good Chelsea are compared to other teams remaining in this competition, there is a feeling the markets have them overrated with the name of Chelsea adding plenty of weight into the way they are being priced up.

What about the Real Betis and Fiorentina factor?

One of the reasons Chelsea have been priced up as short as they are in the market is the way the draw has panned out. Enzo Maresca's side are on the opposite side of the draw to the strongest teams from the strongest leagues when it comes to coefficient in Real Betis and Fiorentina.

Betis, who are a very appealing 6.6 on the Exchange, are coming to the boil nicely at the business end of the season, winning seven of their last nine matches across all competitions. They don't come more streetwise and savvy then coach Manuel Pellegrini, who is getting the best out of Isco and on-loan Manchester United flop Antony. This is a team that have taken seven points off Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid and Barcelona at home this season.

And, Fiorentina - on offer at 8.4 - look comfortably capable of mixing it with Chelsea in a one-off game based on their strong defensive process in Serie A this season. They've conceded just 30 goals in 29 games this season, backed up by an equally strong underlying process of just 1.02 expected goals against per 90. They've beaten both Inter and Juventus 3-0 along the way this season, too.

Ask yourself this, if the Conference League pans out as the market is predicting and either one of Real Betis or Fiorentina reach the final in Poland to face the Blues - what price would Chelsea be to lift the trophy? Much shorter than they are now? No.

You'd be looking around the 1.5 mark which is perhaps the strongest reason to completely steer clear of the price as it is right now. Why back something which has little chance of shortening despite that price in question having to run the gauntlet of two more tricky two-legged ties?

They are a massive lay with so much football still to be played.

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Lay Chelsea to win the Conference League @ 1.6