Chelsea v Tottenham Tips: Palmer can lead 12/1 goal charge

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·30 de abril de 2024

Chelsea v Tottenham Tips: Palmer can lead 12/1 goal charge

Take Son Heung-Min to score in a losing cause again
Nicolas Jackson can add to his previous hat-trick v Spurs
Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here
Chelsea on the up at home
With just a single win in their last five games in all competitions, this young Chelsea side remain riddled with inconsistency. Which is the exact opposite to their record in this fixture.
Remarkably, the Blues have lost just one of their last 33 home league games against Tottenham. That was in 2018 when some bloke called Pochettino was in charge of Spurs.
To be fair, when it comes to current home matches, we are starting to get some predictability with Chelsea. They've won seven of their last nine at Stamford Bridge and, where once the goals seemed to have almost dried up completely, they've now plundered 29 in their 10 last home Premier League starts.
That home form has nudged Chelsea up to ninth and another win here would put them within three points of sixth-placed Manchester United having played the same number of games.
Spurs losing fight for fourth
With England's top clubs crashing out of Europe, the potential of a fifth Champions League spot for the Premier League is looking remote.
And that's bad news for Spurs with various supercomputers and blokes down the pub now predicting them for fifth place after they crashed to a 3-2 home defeat against North London derby rivals Arsenal at the weekend.
Spurs are seven points behind Aston Villa in fourth, but with two games in hand and five to play overall, it leaves them with hope.
And yet two of those remaining four after this one are an away day at Liverpool and a home fixture with Manchester City. For that reason, Tottenham are 5.79/2 on the exchange in the Top 4 Finish market, with Villa just 1.21/5.
Chelsea a fair price to win at home
Given their record at Stamford Bridge and overall dominance of this fixture, Chelsea look a decent price at 2.285/4 to take maximum points. Tottenham are 3.052/1 and The Draw 4.216/5.
Spurs have suffered back-to-back defeats against Newcastle and Arsenal while they've managed just one point out of nine from their last three away fixtures (0-3 at Fulham, 1-1 at West Ham and 0-4 at Newcastle).
But if Chelsea are to win, the numbers suggest they'll struggle to do so while keeping a clean sheet.
The Blues have conceded 25 goals in their 16 home PL games while only the top three can better Tottenham's road tally of 31.
In other words, the 11/53.20 for Chelsea to win and both teams to score seems an upgrade worth chancing.
However, it may be possible to take that idea even further via the Bet Builder route.
Palmer can boost profits
Cole Palmer has been sensational in Chelsea's last two home Premier League games, firing in hat-tricks against both Manchester United and Everton.
That burst has seen him hit the 20-goal mark, putting him just one behind Erling Haaland in the Golden Boot race.
But, whereas Haaland would be very clearly odds-on to score in this fixture, Palmer is on offer at 6/52.20 to net anytime.
Add a Palmer goal into a Chelsea win and both teams to score Bet Builder and we get approximately 7/24.50.
There's also a similar bet that adds in a goal from Son Heung-Min and jumps the odds up to just shy of 12/113.00.
Son scored in a loss at the weekend and has also netted on the road against top four pair Arsenal and Aston Villa this season so likes going to the glamour grounds.
Overall, the Korean has 25 goals in 45 appearances for club and country this season.
With goals expected, I'm going to play one more frontman and that's Nicolas Jackson who scored a hat-trick in the mad 4-1 win for Chelsea at Spurs earlier this season when Tottenham had two men sent off.
A Bet Builder double on Jackson and Palmer both to score pays 7/24.50. That would have landed in the 4-1 victory in which Palmer slotted home a penalty.
Adding in a Chelsea win to that increases it a bit but I wouldn't want to see both score and the bet to lose due to Spurs finding a couple in reply to force a draw.