What does USL's decision to introduce promotion and relegation mean for MLS? | OneFootball

United Soccer Leagues announced on Wednesday that its club owners have voted to introduce promotion and relegation into the USL league structure.

The launch will come at the same time that USL launches its Division One competition, meant to rival MLS as a first division domestic league. When enacted, it will create a three-tiered league system between Division One, the second-tier USL Championship and third-tier USL League One.

So what does this all mean for MLS? The frustrating but truthful answer is that it's probably too soon to tell.

Multiple possibilities

On one hand, there is a significant portion of the American soccer fanbase that has been clamoring to introduce promotion and relegation into the United States league system.

And it's possible that the USL's adoption of pro/rel could boost its popularity as it tries to achieve recognized Division I status, something that ultimately relies on the United States Soccer Federation. In the process, it could certainly weaken MLS' footing as the nation's top league, especially if it also struggles to retain fans who were brought in during the Lionel Messi era.

But it's also possible that trying to install a pyramid structure within USL could cause the USSF to reject its efforts to earn D-I sanctioning. The federation has several stipulations a men's pro league must meet to recieve that sanctioning, including having all teams play in stadiums of 15,000 or more, having teams in the Eastern, Central and Pacific Time Zones, and having 75% of clubs in the league located in metro areas of more than 1 million people.

Because promotion and relegation by its nature means the league's complexion changes year to year, USSF might argue the USL can't guarantee that Division One will consistently meet those standards. And even currently, only six clubs between the USL's two current divisions occupy stadiums that meet those minimum standards.

Expansion impacts?

Additionally, if MLS intends to re-start expansion beyond 30 teams, as commissioner Don Garber has recently suggested, the impact of the USL's pro/rel plans could cut multiple ways.

Some potential ownership groups might find the possibility of starting a club at a lower division and trying to climb the pyramid gradually more appealing, because it would involve less immediate investment than the expensive expansion fees MLS has demanded. Others might balk at the idea of launching a new club without a guarantee that it would ever reach first-tier competitive status.

There's even the possibility that MLS could introduce promotion and relegation within its own league structure if it grows to 32 teams or beyond. While USL's pyramid plan is progress toward an open system, it is really just an expanded closed system with three levels. There is no provision from promotion to and from a fourth tier and beyond. At 32 teams or more, MLS could very easily deviate to a similar, expanded closed system with two levels.

Ultimately, while Wednesday's announcement could be a pivotal turning point in the landscape of pro men's soccer in the U.S., there are several obstacles to clear before it becomes a reality. And in the interim, there will also be the 2026 FIFA World Cup held in the U.S. Canada and Mexico, which is certain to have its own impacts on investment in the domestic game.

That investment feels likely to be focused on MLS clubs rather than USL counterparts. So by the time the USL gets sanctioning for its Divsion One plan with relegation, MLS may have grown in quality to an extent that the Division One product will still be obviously inferior, even if it is top tier in name.