Wednesday Football Tips: Fouls and Florian the focus for 12/1 Nations League semi-final pick | OneFootball

Bet of the Day

Florian Wirtz and fouls are the play for Wednesday's football bet of the day

Paul Higham's focus is on fouls for Wednesday's football Bet Builder tip in the Nations League semi-final between Germany and Portugal in Munich.

Germany v PortugalWednesday 4 June, 20:00 kick-offLive on Amazon Prime

Thankfully the Nations League keeps us entertained this week with the semi-final between Germany and Portugal ripe for some player prop bet options we can compile for today's Bet Builder column.

We're back at the Allianz Arena in Munich just a few days after it hosted the Champions League final but this doesn't seem quite so one-sided, although Germany are warm favourites at 2/5 to make the final with Portugal 15/8 road underdogs - that's very much a position they've relished over the years though.

We should hopefully see a few goals as both sides knocked in five during thrilling semi-final wins. That's not usually how Portugal get things done but Germany could drag them into a slugfest.

I'm staying away from the goals and assists markets though, and instead have turned to fouls for today's football Bet Builder.

Leg 1: Florian Wirtz to give away 2+ fouls

There'll be a lot of attention on Florian Wirtz due to his proposed huge transfer to Liverpool, so you could forgive him for at least being a little distracted for this game, but I still expect him to put on a show.

However, Portugal are tough opposition to shine against, and while they'll no doubt key in on him they'll be clever about it and frustrations and eagerness to impress mean Wirtz could be primed for a 2+ foul game at a juicy 9/5.

And the stats back us up here as he's given away a foul every 44 minutes over his last 10 Germany internationals with multiple fouls in four of those outings.

For comparison, he's had multiple shots on target in just two and been fouled multiple times in only one - so considering he's 5/2 for 2+ shots on target and just 10/11 to be fouled twice against Portugal - our plays looks the pick and I'd be happy also rolling that out as a single.

Leg 2: Both teams 14+ fouls

We love a Bet Builder, so I'm switching to team totals in the fouls markets here for a couple of reasons - not least because it's the end of a long, hard season so tired legs usually mean a few mistakes and a few fouls. Also, both sides have been pretty prolific in this category with Germany giving away 99 fouls in their eight Nations League matches while Portugal can top that with 101.

Germany have given away 45 in four home games and Portugal 52 from their four games on the road. Tonight's referee Slavko Vincic pinged the Portuguese 21 times in their quarter-final against Denmark (including extra-time) and Germany 10 times in a win over the Dutch in October.

So we're going to play Portugal at 1/1 and Germany at 5/2 to give away 14+ fouls due to a mix of tiredness, the occasion and what looks a stylistically good match-up for fouls.

Roberto Martinez's men have hit this mark in 50% of their Nations League games this season, while Germany have hit 13 twice, 12 once and had 20 and 15 in their two legs against Italy in the semis.

Last season's final stages saw teams hit 14 fouls five teams out of eight during the semis, final and third-placed match, so the stats here are pretty strong.

Recommended bets

Back both teams 14+ fouls & Wirtz 2+ fouls @ 12/1