Sunday Football Tips Cheat Sheet: Best bets for Premier League final day | OneFootball

Betfair Premier League Superboost

In a weekend where the title is heading to either Manchester or North London, both Pep Guardiola's and Mikel Arteta's side must turn up on Sunday, just incase the other does win. City know the title is theirs with a win, whilst Arsenal are relying on West Ham to do them a favour and any dropped points from City means the Gunners can win the title with a win over Everton.

Betfair have decided to get involved in the title race, and offer a Superboost across both title defining matches, with both the West Ham and Everton GK each to make 3+ saves, now priced at 1/12.00 (was [1/4!]).

Interestingly, only Man Utd's goalkeeper has a higher save ratio than Everton's (74%) and West Ham's (73%), with Jordan Pickford (3.2) and Alphone Areola (4.3) averaging over the 3+ barrier in their Premier League games this season.

Both 'keepers are set to be very busy on Sunday, as not only do they come up against sides who need to win, they come up against sides who are in red hot form in front of goal.

Man City are averaging 7.6 shots on target per home game in 2024, firing 36 on target across their last three games. They also lead the league overall this season with 7.2 per game.

Arsenal meanwhile, have managed 3+ shots on target in all eight of their home games in 2024, averaging 7.1 per game since the turn of the year.

Expect Pickford and Areola to be in the firing line on Sunday.

Premier League Tips and Predictions

*All matches kick off at 16:00

Arsenal v Everton: Back 15/2 Bet Builder with Gunners fouls

Lewis Jones: "Arsenal will need to devise a plan to make sure Dominic Calvert-Lewin doesn't run them ragged. The Everton striker's return to his best form has coincided with this fantastic run of four wins in five games. He's been unplayable in recent weeks - so Gabriel and William Saliba will need to be on their game. It should be a very watchable and intense battle. And fouls look on the cards.

"Calvert-Lewin has won 16 fouls in his last six starts - it equates exactly to 2.95 fouls per 90 since March 30 and only three players are working at a higher foul won ratio in the Premier League.

"Saliba and Gabriel's fouls committed numbers have spiked in Arsenal's run-in as the pressure has increased, making 33 fouls between them in their last 11 games. They are a devastating defensive duo but such is Arsenal's tactic of squeezing the play, they are asked to defend aggressively and can be left exposed. The high foul count makes sense.

"Both are overpriced to make a foul when considering their foul drawing, dangerous opponent with Gabriel available at 8/13 and Saliba especially appealing at 5/6. If we combine those two bets in the Bet Builder we can back both to make at least one foul at 7/4 - a bet which has landed in five of their last six games at home."

Man City v West Ham: Back Ward-Prowse in 50/1 Bet Builder

Dave Tindall: "While everyone is handing them the title already, City's players have been quick to remind us that they almost blew it against another team in claret and blue two seasons ago.

"City knew failure to beat Aston Villa at the Etihad on the final day would give Liverpool the chance to snatch the title and the trophy looked to be heading to Merseyside when the visitors moved into a shock 2-0 lead. Stung into action, the hosts scored thee goals in an incredible five-minute burst to turn it around.

"That's surely a one-off though. Well, maybe not. On the final day in 2019, City were in the same position again when they travelled to Brighton: needing a win to keep the door shut on Liverpool. They went behind in that one too before striking back with four goals to rack up 98 points to Liverpool's 97.

"Perhaps the tone was originally set by Agueroooo City, who trailed QPR in injury-time before that incredible finish in 2011-12. In short, history says City get this done - perhaps convincingly so - but there may be value in backing them to suffer a wobble before the inevitable plays out.

"If we're going down that route we may as well milk it for full drama and envisage James Ward-Prowse curling in a free-kick or netting from a penalty after referee John Brooks shows he's not afraid to make the big decision by pointing to the spot.

"Remember, though, this will be a minor blip and City get it done. That scenario of Ward-Prowse to score first in a Man City victory is attractively priced at 50/1."

Liverpool v Wolves: Back 5/1 Bet Builder

Paul Higham: "It's the last game of the season, but the Anfield atmosphere alone should ensure there's a high tempo, and while we're expecting goals and shots what both these teams excel at is giving away fouls.

"They're second and third in the foul table with over 12 per game on average, with Joao Gomes leading the way for Wolves with 72 fouls this season. Gomes is 8/13 for 2+ fouls at Anfield - a bet that's landed in six of his last eight.

"For Liverpool, Luis Diaz is 5/6 for 2+ fouls, which he's managed in three of his last four to take his season tally to 71. The only Liverpool player with a better record is Alexis Mac Allister as the World Cup winner has given away 80 fouls in the current campaign with plenty of multiple foul games.

"The Argentinian is 1/1 for 2+ fouls against Wolves - and he's managed that in three of his last four games so is more than likely to add to his tally."

Brighton v Man Utd: Get Albion onside at almost 2/1

Mark O'Haire: "Brighton's midweek defeat to Chelsea was only their second home reverse against sides outside of the top-two this season in the Premier League. The Seagulls have remained relatively solid opposition at The Amex and rank inside the top-half of the table when viewing home Expected Points (xP) and home Expected Goals (xG) data.

"Of course, Albion have appeared toothless at times in 2024, though a home clash against a ramshackle Man Utd rearguard should give Roberto De Zerbi's outfit a decent shot at landing the points. The hosts are aiming for a fifth successive win over the Red Devils, whilst Brighton have also bagged top honours in four of their last six home games with United.

"With that in-mind, I'm happy to have an interest in Brighton Double Chance and Brighton Over 6.5 Corners at almost 2/1 via the Bet Builder. Man Utd are W1-D2-L7 on their travels to teams in 12th and above, with the visitors also allowing a minimum of seven corners in 12 of their last 15 top-flight tussles (conceding an average of 8.87 per-game during that sample).

"Brighton boast a 7.06 corners per-game average at The Amex this season so asking the Seagulls to follow suit should be well within their range, especially with the visitors potentially distracted by their FA Cup final date at Wembley next weekend."

Chelsea v Bournemouth: Back Palmer to add to his tally

Abigail Davies: "Cole Palmer has been a real shining light. The attacking midfielder has shown great versatility and enjoyed a remarkable season but it would take something utterly ludicrous for him to win the Golden Boot ahead of Erling Haaland who has found the back of the net five times more than the 22-year-old.

"The Englishman has made countless intelligent runs, his movement is superb, and in addition to his ability in front of goal, his link-up play has also been eye-catching. Thanks to his vision and creativity, Palmer has been directly involved in the same number of goals as Haaland in the league, having provided 10 assists to go with his 22 goals."

Burnley v Nottingham Forest: Corners bet comes to 23/10

Stephen Tudor: "The Clarets have only scored eight from their last 10 home games, oddly reserving their best and most spirited performances for away days. Here at least the pressure has been lifted while pertinently it's their last chance to prove a point.

"Still, a low-scoring affair awaits, and the same goes for corners too. Forest have averaged 3.9 per 90 all season with Burnley faring little better."

Crystal Palace v Aston Villa: Eagles backed in 19/1 Bet Builder

Max Liu: "Crystal Palace have won more Premier League home games against Aston Villa than they have against any other opponent (7), including six of their last eight against them at Selhurst Park (L2). In their last home match, the Eagles swatted Manchester United aside 4-0. That victory was part of a run that has seen them win five of their last six matches.

"Villa have enjoyed a brilliant season but have failed to win their last five in all competitions (L3D2). Palace have won their past two home matches to nil and it is tempting to back them to do the same here. The Villans attack is impressive, however, and in Ollie Watkins features the player with the most assists in the division (13)."

Brentford v Newcastle: Back 9/2 assist tip and 12/1 Bet Builder

Alex Boyes: "Newcastle United have scored 80 Premier League goals this season, their most ever in a league campaign with a maximum of 38 matches. They have also conceded 60 goals, the first time a team has scored 80+ and conceded 60+ in a top-flight campaign with a maximum of 20 teams since 1914-15, when both Blackburn (F83 A61) and Sunderland (F81 A72) did so."

EFL League Two Tips and Predictions

13:00 - Crawley v Crewe: 5/2 play-off final Bet Builder

Alan Dudman: "On the head-to-heads this season, backers of Over 2.5 Goals will be referencing the Crewe 2-4 win in Sussex last October, but the Under 2.5 Goals supporters will be seeking solace closer to this month with the dull and drab 1-0 in February. That was a game of barely a chance with Crewe registering one shot on target.

"Both had fairly lowly xG numbers too overall with Crawley, who are more aggressive in the press at 1.49 xG and Crewe at just 1.16. Backers of the Under 2.5 Goals will be worried about that 8-1 aggregate, but Crewe make mistakes at the back, and while good in transitions, can be vulnerable with attackers running directly at them, and they've been exposed that way this term.

"I'd rather go with the BTTS here for the Bet Builder and the 4/6 is adequate, and including that with Crawley gives as a double of a price near 5/2. Crawley's eight goals across their play-off semi-final against MK Dons is the most by a side in their first two games in the Football League play-offs."

James Eastham: "If Lens win, they finish sixth, and secure a place in Europe. Motivation will be total, and the support of a sell-out crowd should help the hosts achieve their objective.

"Visitors Montpellier have nothing to play for. Already certain of a mid-table final position, there's a very good chance they will be far, far less motivated. This was already the case in losing 2-0 (home) to Monaco last weekend. Their best player, Teji Savanier, missed that game through suspension, and the midfielder will be absent again this weekend.

"All factors suggest that Lens should win and, potentially, comfortably. The hosts are 1.47 to collect all three points. If those odds are too short for you, support Lens on the Asian Handicap. With our selection, you'll get your stakes back if Lens win by a single goal, and make a profit if they win by two or more goals."

Now read Premier League Tips: Back final day fouls acca at 329/1

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