Serie A Tips: Napoli and Inter to feel the heat in title deciders | OneFootball

Italian Serie A

Will it be Inter or Napoli winning Serie A this season?

After picking up two winners from three selections last weekend, Kevin Hatchard's back with two tips from Friday's enormous title showdown, as leaders Napoli face Cagliari and defending champions Inter go to Como.

Napoli v Cagliari - Expect nerves in Naples

Friday 23 May, 19:45Live on TNT Sports

Although he has played down their abilities all season, Antonio Conte's Napoli are on the cusp of title glory. The coach could win the Scudetto with a third different club, after his successes with Juventus and Inter, and he could then produce a startling mic drop and walk off into the sunset. The irascible Italian has been moaning about transfer funds all season, and his relationship with owner Aurelio de Laurentiis is strained as a result.

Napoli looked to have blown it last weekend, as they were held to a jittery 0-0 draw at Parma, but closest challengers Inter twice surrendered a second-half lead against Lazio in a thrilling 2-2 draw. That all means that Napoli have a one-point lead going into the final round of games, and the two title contenders will play on Friday, because if they finish level on points they'll have to contest a one-off "playout" for the title on Monday.

Although Napoli deserve massive credit for the way they have contested this campaign (albeit with no European distractions), they aren't exactly cruising to what would be their second title in three seasons. They have only won six of their last 15 games in the league, and only two of those victories featured multiple-goal margins of success.

Cagliari have naught but pride to play for, after securing survival thanks to last week's 3-0 win over fellow strugglers Venezia. However, they have avoided defeat in five of their last ten away games in the league, and since the turn of the year the Sardinians have managed creditable draws at Milan and Atalanta. They can play without pressure, and coach Davide Nicola has insisted he wants his players to avoid "a resounding slap in the face."

If Napoli take the lead, I can't see Conte loosening the shackles here, and he'll surely just look to shut the game down. It doesn't matter how Napoli win, they just need to get over the line, so I'll give Cagliari a two-goal headstart on the Asian Handicap here at 2.04. Cagliari haven't lost by three goals or more since December 28, and even though they lost the reverse fixture to Napoli 4-0, this is a fixture where all of the pressure is heaped on the hosts.

Como v Inter - Champions too short to defend their crown

Friday 23 May, 19:45Live on TNT Sports

In many ways it's been an incredible season for Inter. They have reached their second Champions League final in three seasons, knocking out Bayern and Barcelona on the way. They reached the semi-finals of the Coppa Italia, and they are in the mix to defend their Serie A title.

However, there is now a danger the Nerazzurri will end up empty-handed. They were crushed by Milan in the Coppa Italia, PSG will be no pushovers in the Champions League final next weekend, and last weekend's calamitous 2-2 draw with Lazio has handed the initiative to Napoli in the race for the Scudetto.

Inter twice led against the Romans last week, but on both occasions Spanish veteran Pedro struck. The second of those was an 90th-minute penalty, awarded after young Inter defender Yann Bisseck had been penalised for handball. Now Simone Inzaghi's men must either win at Como and hope Napoli fail to beat Cagliari, or if Napoli lose then an Inter draw would force a playout on Monday for the title.

Like Cagliari, Como have nothing to play for, but they are on a run of eight games unbeaten in the league and are dangerous opponents. Coach Cesc Fabregas has attracted admiring glances from German giants RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen, although there's a good chance he stays in Italy if the club's rich owners choose to back his ambitious transfer plans.

Como have won four and drawn two of their last six home games in the league, they beat Napoli at the Sinigaglia in late February, and they have collected 27 points from their last 13 games, a staggering amount for a team that had never previously competed in Serie A.

I'll lay Inter here at 1.6, because I think there are a number of potential scenarios that would lead to them not taking maximum points. It's a tough game anyway for an Inter team that has only won three of its last seven league matches. But if Napoli take an early grip of their game against Cagliari, Inter might decide to ease off ahead of the Champions League final.

Recommended bets

Back Cagliari +2.0 on the Asian Handicap @ 2.04

Lay Inter @ 1.6