Saturday League One & League Two Tips: Back draw specialists Gills to earn a profit | OneFootball

EFL League One & League Two

It's a trip to Oldham for Alan's best bet in League Two

Alan Dudman landed four out of six winning bets last weekend to take his profit from the first month to +2.59 thus far and he previews six games this weekend in his latest EFL tipsheet...

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League One

Cardiff City v Plymouth Argyle, Saturday 12:30: Back Cardiff and Under 2.5 Goals @ 13/5

Cardiff netted us one of four winners last weekend with their 0-1 victory against Luton. Almost a classic sucker punch of a performance considering Luton's build-up play, but the Bluebirds looked a good side with the majority of possession (62%) for an away team and most chances.

Brian Barry-Murphy made three chances last Saturday with David Turnbull, Callum Robinson and Chris Willock all in, and Joel Colwill and Yousef Salech were two left out - and leaving out Colwill was surprising.

It shows the strength at Cardiff, something Plymouth cannot compete with, and Cardiff managed and saw out the game at Kenilworth with ease in the end - soaking up Luton's inability in the final third.

The hosts remain unbeaten and conceded just one goal in the league with five clean sheets and see no reason why they cannot win this in a straightforward fashion.

Burton Albion v Luton Town, Saturday 15:00: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 20/23

And to Luton - whose lack of a finishing punch in the final third is weighing them down like a Victorian diving suit.

In six games League and Cup thus far, four for the Hatters have been 1-0 either way and until Matt Bloomfield gets the right formation, it's hard to see Luton scoring more than twice in a game.

It seems as if time has stood still from the opening fixture to start the EFL in front of the Sky cameras - and in truth Luton battered Wimbledon but couldn't score and got lucky with an own goal in the final 10 minutes.

With an away xG of 1.20, that mirrors their xA away too of 1.20 and there is only one way I am going for this.

Port Vale are another of my Under 2.5 Goals brethren at the moment and Darren Moore's side have struggled to get to grips with promotion and have collected just two points from their five fixtures so far.

The blow of losing Lorent Tolaj will take a while to get over, with the forward swapping Vale for Plymouth and without him, Vale don't exactly strike me as a side blessed with goals and have scored just two in five games.

With two 0-0s already for Vale, Reading are prime candidates to set up for the soaking under pressure and we can play it either Under 2.5 or the BTTS angle.

League Two

Crewe Alexandra v Swindon Town, Saturday 12:30: Back Crewe @ 1/1

Crewe were the headline selection last weekend yet somehow lost at Gillingham. It sounded a terrific game by all accounts with two good teams going at each other, and we can count ourselves unlucky with the Crewe win bet as they were excellent in the first half.

So much so they hit the woodwork four times and missed an open goal, so it was no surprise Alex boss Lee Bell said a draw should have been the minimum they deserved.

Bell changed the system in the second-half and made plenty of substitutes, and while they couldn't get the goal they are a very good side and break at opponents at speed.

I hope Josh March gets to play more through the centre rather than the left and Tommi O'Reilly is a very good youngster on loan from Aston Villa.

The evens looks a fair price for the early kick-off.

Oldham Athletic v Gillingham, Saturday 15:00: Back The Draw @ 2/1

Gillingham already have two draws from five games (plus a 1-1 in the EFL Cup) and I don't want to look any further than the 2/1 on offer for the stalemate again.

Under Gareth Ainsworth there is a new found resilience - and it's telling their knack to keep fighting has produced goals on 79, 83, 90, 90 and 89 minutes.

They had just 28% possession of the ball against Chesterfield yet won 4-1, but that looks a bit of a freak result.

Oldham this term haven't won a game - with four draws out of five, and a perfect 0-0, 0-0, 1-1, 1-1 record. Considering Gills are partial to a stalemate too, and under Ainsworth last season they drew eight of their remaining 11 fixtures, the 2/1 outright for another draw has to be the call.

Shrewsbury Town v Accrington Stanley, Saturday 15:00: Back BTTS 'No' @ 20/23

A friend of mine watched Cheltenham v Barnet last week and said the Robins were dreadful. It doesn't bode well then for Shrewsbury who only have a point this term from five games compared to Cheltenham's zero points.

It is a race to the bottom with those two.

Town have at least managed a goal in their last two matches - but they've been well beaten in both with a 2-1 loss to Swindon and a 4-1 defeat to Notts County previously.

Shrewsbury also have an xG at home of just 0.94 and 1.03 overall. Putting those figures against Accrington's 1.21 xG and 1.28xA on home soil and with just two points in their five games, this has the makings to be the worst ever match staged this term.

I wouldn't mind a 90 minutes short on excitement hence the BTTS 'No' bet.

Recommended bets

Back Cardiff to win and Under 2.5 Goals v Plymouth 0.5pt @ 13/5

Back Under 2.5 Goals Burton v Luton 0.5pt @ 20/23

Back BTTS 'No' Reading v Port Vale 0.5pt @ 9/10

Back Crewe to beat Swindon 0.5pt @ 1/1

Back The Draw Oldham v Gilingham 0.5pt @ 2/1

Back BTTS 'No' Shrewsbury v Accrington Stanley 0.5pt @ 20/23

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