Premier League Tips: Arsenal to win the quad at 500/1 & how to back Spurs at 12/1 for top four | OneFootball

English Premier League

Arteta's Arsenal are ready for glory, says Lewis Jones

We asked Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - to share his best ante post picks for the Premier League season and he's served up some huge prices to ride with...

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This is Arsenal's time - back them on all fronts

Arsenal are the most likely winners of the Premier League this season.

The market doesn't quite mirror that yet with Mikel Arteta's team trading at 2.90 on the Betfair Exchange and favourites Man City trending quite weak at 2.54 having been closer to Evens over the summer.

Pep Guardiola's pursuit for five on the spin is going to be a monstrous task. The man himself is out of contract at the end of the campaign and has admitted "he doesn't know what he wants to do with his life yet" so the end could be nigh for driver of this City juggernaut. The charges against the club, 115 of them, will also be rumbling in the background but it's the regression of the actual football team that worries me more.

Kyle Walker is not the player he was - as he showed in the European Championships and will be targeted one vs one by elite opposition whilst Kevin de Bruyne - the best player in the history of the Premier League for me - can't stay fit. The reliance on Rodri can't be underestimated and at the time of writing there seems to be no move to replace Julian Alvarez across that City attack. They are still an incredible football team but a regressing one.

Compare that Arsenal, who look ready to peak in their journey under Arteta and have looked to improve a weak area at left-back with the signing of Riccardo Calafiori. And let's be frank, Arsenal might not need to improve on their 89 points haul to go one better and become champions.

There is of course, not value whatsoever in that 2.9 especially when you're having to place your money down for nine months.

It's time to dream then. Be a little speculative in search of value in trying to get Arsenal on side.

This Arsenal team is ready to compete on all fronts now - they are a powerhouse that, along with City, are far clear of the rest in the Premier League. This means multiple trophies when looking at the FA Cup, Carabao Cup and Champions League, could be on the cards for the Gunners and I'm very happy to be investing in some big prices offered up by the Betfair Sportsbook.

You can get 16/1 on a domestic double, 100/1 for the domestic treble and 500/1 for them to win all four of the FA Cup, Carabao Cup, Premier League and Champions League.

Man City's stranglehold on these trophies might not be as tight this season but the market haven't factored that in. Let's not forget, they didn't win any of the FA Cup, Carabao or Champions League last season.

Arsenal are the new Liverpool in the challengers to Man City and I see no reason why they can't go all-out across all competitions like Jurgen Klopp's team did when going toe-to-toe with Guardiola's men. Liverpool threatened multiple trophy hauls a couple of times under Klopp where punters who had backed it early doors were sitting on some humungous cash-out opportunities when the prices shortened over the season.

This could happen with Arsenal.

Yes, they have a relatively poor record under Arteta in domestic cups but dig a little deeper and they've been unfortunate with how the draws have panned out, being knocked out twice to both Liverpool and Manchester City in the early rounds. They are also live runners in the Champions League, albeit that will be the toughest ask of the lot.

That said, I'm willing to invest a couple of points on the prices on offer for Arsenal multiple trophies and hopefully watch the momentum and excitement build as the Gunners go charging for glory on all fronts.

0.5pts on Arsenal to win Premier League & FA Cup

SBK16/1

0.5pts on Arsenal to win Premier League, Carabao & FA Cup

SBK100/1

Solanke & Spurs a perfect match - back 12/1 shot

This bet scares me a little. Having known lots of Tottenham fans and worked covering their games for many years, putting faith and investing in Spurs makes me uneasy.

But I think Ange Postecoglou can steer them to being the best of the rest in the Premier League and even potentially gatecrashing the top-two. So, with the market rating them alongside the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United for top four at 13/8, I simply have to get involved in backing my theory.

What the manager managed to create for large parts of last season in his first season was quite incredible. It's so difficult to coach a team to score goals and put attacking patterns together than just to set one up to be defensively strong. The buy-in and receptive nature to his football from his players shows the big Aussie to be a very special coach and leader.

Let's not forget, Spurs were top after 10 games last season and unbeaten before all the injuries ravaged them. At the start of last season, they drew at Arsenal and Man City - and beat Liverpool.

The recruitment is also a factor on why more improvement can be expected. They've nailed every major signing - all of whom have fitted in very quickly and are ready to flourish playing Postecoglou's unique, risk-reward style of football. Micky Van der Ven, James Maddison, Guglielmo Vicario and Brennan Johnson all contributed immensely at various stages to the cause last season.

And I just love the Dominic Solanke signing.

He is the perfect modern-day centre-forward to lead the line for a team that plays in this way. An excellent presser without possession that can run channels, when he gets the ball he's very intelligent at bringing wide players into the game something which is the nucleus of this style of football.

I think Ange can take him to the next level and improve him. And when you consider he's already at the level of Ollie Watkins and Ivan Toney, I'd go as far to say that we could be looking at England starting centre-forward at the 2026 World Cup when you consider the next two years should see him reach his peak and Harry Kane's legs to play as a lone striker looks be on the wane.

Solanke scored 19 goals last season at Bournemouth, only two of them coming from the penalty spot. He is going to get chances galore being the man responsible for being on the end of the Tottenham cutbacks from wide areas - a type of finish he does excel with.

Tottenham to finish in the top four and Solanke to score 20 or more Premier League goals being offered up at 12/1 by the Betfair Sportsbook is my strongest ante post play.

I think it wins.

Lay Aston Villa for top-10 finish

With fatigue and injury tolls likely to be a huge factor this season, finding a way to predict which clubs are in danger of potentially underperforming due to the workload felt like a key part of my ante post season prep.

I built a very basic model to analyse how many injuries a team picked up last season, along with how many games that team is expected to play this season and how many minutes their players played this summer at a major competition. There were two teams that came out in the red zone: Aston Villa and Manchester United.

And it's Villa that really appealed to me to be a team to oppose this season at the prices, where they are as short as 1.3 for a top-10 finish.

Despite their incredible season where Champions League football was achieved, they still picked up 39 injuries suffered last season - fourth highest of any team. There are two extra games in the Champions League group stage this season and Unai Emery and the fans will - rightly - be prioritising that adventure albeit knowing the mental of physical toll will have a serious impact on their Premier League campaign.

Data shows us that teams that qualify for Europe that didn't the previous season are likely to regress in the league the following season. This is a credit to the work of Simon Giles for the Racing Post, who went back to 2004 on this subject and 24 of 34 teams who qualify for Europe that didn't the season before won fewer points in the next season.

It's so difficult anyway to keep players fit and in-form playing in such an energy sapping league where there are no gimmies.

There are some really dangerous teams in mid-table like Bournemouth, West Ham - who have invested wisely, Crystal Palace with the impressive Oliver Glasner and shrewd operators like Brighton and Brentford.

I wouldn't have Villa that far clear of those teams.

People are forgetting they finished the season so poorly, too. Over the last 17 Premier League games, they've averaged a per-90 expected goals against figure of 1.95 which was is the fourth worst in the Premier League. And the last 10 games in the form table shows they were 12th.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish in the bottom half. That goes against the market expectation, which means they're a bet at the prices.

I'm happy to lay them for a top-10 finish at 1.3 on the Betfair Exchange.

Johnson can be assist king at 50/1

Kevin De Bruyne heads the betting for the most assist market in the Premier League - a favourite I'm very keen to take on at 9/4. The Belgian has won this award in four of the last eight seasons and would have won it last year had he played more minutes.

Somehow, he racked up 10 assists in just 1200 minutes of action.

However, that's the issue - his injury record. I'm not sure he'll play enough games to get himself competitive in this market.

Someone can beat him - and the standout at the prices with each-way stakes with four places on offer is Brennan Johnson at Tottenham, who is a 50/1 shot.

There is a change to the way a striker is asked to play now - not only do they need to get goals but assists too. Ollie Watkins won this award last year with 13 assists - he was 150/1 ante post.

Of the last 47 Premier League to register 10 assists or more in a season, 28 of them have been forwards or wide players. Before we've seen the likes of Mesut Ozil, Christian Eriksen, Cesc Fabregas being responsible for chance creation, it's now the forward players who are creating the chances.

Johnson was one of a cluster of players who grabbed 10 assists last season, including seven in his last 12 Premier League appearances.

Postecoglou style is attack minded, with emphasis on getting the ball down the wings so the wide players playing in his system are going to be key in terms of chance creation. Johnson looks set to be the starter down that right flank and he can be the Premier League assist king this season at a whopper of a price.

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