Norway v Italy: Club experience can see Norway reach final four | OneFootball

Euro 2025

The first Euro 2025 quarter-final takes place on Wednesday night

The Euro 2025 knockout phase begins on Wednesday, and Kevin Hatchard has a betting tip for us from Norway against Italy.

Norway v ItalyWednesday 16 July, 20:00Live on BBC One

Are Norway finally making the most of their talent?

In my tournament preview, I was pro-Norway, backing them to win Group A and suggesting they were a decent outside bet in the Euro 2025 Winner market. While the market is still treating Gemma Grainger's side as serious outsiders, they are just one win away from the semi-finals, and this is a squad that has plenty of talent and experience.

While Norway are yet to deliver a complete performance across their three wins, the level of talent is undeniable. Arsenal midfielder Frida Maanum scored twice in the 4-3 win over Iceland and was the country's top scorer in qualifying. Chelsea's Guro Reiten has won six WSL titles and earned over 100 caps, while striker Ada Hegerberg is a former Ballon d'Or winner. Barcelona winger Caroline Graham Hansen is hugely entertaining when in full flow, and forced a late winner against Finland.

To highlight the strength in depth Norway can call upon, 20-year-old Brann midfielder Signe Gaupset scored two excellent goals in a rotated team against Iceland. Talented players like Manchester United duo Celin Bizet and Elisabeth Terland are likely to be kept in reserve.

Defender Marit Lund is suspended after her red card against Iceland. The likes of Hansen, Reiten and Hegerberg will all return, along with Thea Bjelde and Ingrid Engen.

Italy must show they are ready for the next step

There's been plenty of buzz about Italy going into this tournament, but they are yet to show what they are capable of. A deserved 1-0 win over Belgium was followed by a ragged 1-1 draw with Portugal, and although they led early on against tournament favourites Spain, they ultimately fell to a 3-1 defeat.

Italy have reached quarter-finals before in major tournaments. They got to the last eight in the 1991 and 2019 World Cups, while at the Euros they were quarter-finalists in 2009 and 2013. In 1993 and 1997 the Azzurre were beaten finalists.

However, as European football has grown in strength and depth, Italy have found it harder to compete. No Italian side made it out of the group stage of the Champions League last season, with Roma and Juventus falling short. At international level, Italy didn't make it out of the group at Euro 2017, Euro 2022 or the 2023 World Cup.

Italy have at least made progress under coach Andrea Soncin. They beat Denmark and drew with Sweden in the Nations League, and in qualifying for this tournament they twice drew with Norway and took four points off the Dutch across two meetings.

After shuffling his pack against Spain, Soncin is likely to restore veteran striker Cristiana Girelli to his attack. Girelli scored a wonderful goal against Portugal, the 35-year-old's 54th international strike.

Norway can defy outsiders' tag

Norway haven't perhaps been as solid as their 100% record in the group stage suggests, but they deserve more love than they are getting from the market here. We can back them to qualify at a generous 2.1, which includes extra time or a potential penalty shootout victory.

Player for player, Norway have the calibre to progress, with several options in midfield and attack who can change a game in an instant. Italy have developed into a fine unit under Soncin, and their results in the last two years make them worthy of respect, but I don't believe they've consistently shown us that quality at this tournament.

Norway have players at club level who are stone-cold killers when it comes to the biggest games (Graham Hansen and Hegerberg have won nine Champions Leagues between them), whereas Italy simply don't have that breadth of experience.

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Back Norway to qualify @ 2.1

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