Niclas Fullkrug West Ham deal tells you everything about the Newcastle United transfer strategy | OneFootball

Monday saw West Ham United sign Niclas Fullkrug.

The German striker moving from Borussia Dortmund to the Premier League.

A widely reported £27.5m transfer fee agreed and Niclas Fullkrug handed a four-year contract.

I was intrigued to see how the media would report on this deal.

Put it this way, that Niklas Fullkrug deal is one that Newcastle United would never have been interested in, not a chance.

It isn’t that I think Niklas Fullkrug is a poor player.

Instead, I can’t believe that the media are seemingly totally ignoring one other key factor in all of this.

Niclas Fullkrug is 31 years of age and will turn 32 in the middle of this upcoming 2024/25 Premier League season.

I can’t believe that if it had been Newcastle United making this Niclas Fullkrug deal, the media would have been doing anything else than putting the striker’s age at the very forefront of the story.

The Premier League is so demanding, the pace that it is played at, the intensity, the toughest league in the world, where a striker in particular needs to get through so much graft, yet West Ham having to give Niclas Fullkrug a contract that will see him turn 35 years of age during that fourth season, if he is still there…

This sums up totally the Newcastle United transfer strategy, in that this kind of transfer is one they would never have even considered for one second.

Would I have been upset if Newcastle had bought Niclas Fullkrug? No.

However, that doesn’t change the fact that this is a crazy deal when it comes to the finances, PSR and so on.

Apart from some signings such as Trippier and Burn in the very initial firefighting, trying to avoid relegation, January 2022 transfer window, Newcastle United have targeted promising younger players, with the aim that they will progress both in ability on the pitch and transfer valuation off it. This isn’t the Mike Ashley look for players at a price who will hopefully become our star players and then once that happens instantly sell them off for as much as possible. It is a plan to help grow the club long-term, so that the big money invested in signings is on young players who will increase in value and then when some of them in the future become squad players due to the ever better quality brought in, you then can sell them for hopefully a lot more than you bought them for and then reinvest that money. The same if somebody who is a star player then wants to leave for whatever reason, we might all be gutted but if at the same time NUFC get a massive transfer fee and then use that to help buy exciting other players, then it certainly softens the blow.

With the £27.5m transfer fee and four years of wages, it is difficult to see this deal having seen West Ham committed anything less than £60m minimum to the Niclas Fullkrug deal.

It looks a massive gamble, surely nobody thinks that when he is 34 and 35 in the final two years of this four year deal, that Niclas Fullkrug will still be leading the line regularly at West Ham? The gamble looks clearly to be that the German striker will deliver in the first couple of years of this contract to make it make sense in any way, however, even in his second (2025/26) season he will turn 33 during it.

Whether Niclas Fullkrug is or isn’t a success this season and potentially the following one as well, by summer 2026 at the very latest, West Ham will be having to retreat this process, paying out big money to get a new first choice striker and not able to generate any transfer fee at all for Niclas Fullkrug. Indeed, on the wages he will be on at West Ham, it would be all but impossible for any German club to take him back, even on loan, unless the Hammers massively subsidised it.

This isn’t a case of saying Eddie Howe and the Newcastle United owners are getting everything right.

However, when it comes to this brave transfer strategy of paying out big money on (age when Newcastle United bought them) a 22 year old Isak, 21 year old Gordon, 22 year old Botman, 23 year old Tonali, 24 year old Bruno, 18 year old Hall, 20 year old Livramento and so on. It is giving Newcastle United a chance of growing at a rapid rate, if these major money signings of younger players works out on the pitch, as their age means you aren’t then having to replace them in a couple of years at a massive net loss, with a minimal or no transfer fee for them.

I haven’t got any particular negativity where West Ham are concerned and this looks a desperate deal. Committing that £60m+ to a deal on a striker who has only scored 56 top tier league (Bundesliga) goals in his entire career and who last season as a 30 year old, cost Borussia Dortmund only £11m, when buying Niclas Fullkrug from Werder Bremen. Fullkrug has never been a prolific goalscorer over the course of his career and last season scored 12 league goals after starting 27 matches in the Bundesliga, his Dutch teammate Donyell Malen scored 13 despite only starting 21 Bundesliga matches.

I think the massive risks with this Niclas Fulkrug deal are very similar to Man U when they brought in Casemiro.

They committed to £70m in transfer fee and add-ons (£60m + £10m) in 2022 for a 30 year old who was given a four year contract to play central midfield in the Premier League. Undoubtedly he was a great player but even last season he looked to really struggle with the pace of the game AND he was only in the second season of his four year contract! When you add in Casemiro’s crazy wages, the amount of money this deal cost is astronomical.

I think that Niclas Fullkrug could easily be an asset to West Ham this coming season and score some goals, however, if you are looking to compete long-term, I think doing these kind of expensive deals on players in their 30s makes it almost impossible to compete long-term.

West Ham official Niclas Fullkrug announcement – 6 August 2024:

West Ham United is delighted to announce the signing of Germany international centre-forward Niclas Füllkrug.

The prolific striker joins the Hammers from Borussia Dortmund on a four-year contract for an undisclosed fee.

Hannover-born Füllkrug has scored goals wherever he has played, netting over 50 in the Bundesliga, three in last season’s UEFA Champions League, and 13 in just 21 caps for Germany, including two each at the 2022 FIFA World Cup and UEFA Euro 2024.

The 6’2 player will now move to the Premier League, where his qualities of outstanding passing, heading and finishing, and all-round physical attributes, will add firepower to Head Coach Julen Lopetegui’s attacking arsenal.

“I’m delighted to be here, and I can’t wait to get out on the pitch with my new teammates,” said Füllkrug. “I think the Premier League is the best league in the world, and for me it is the right time to move over to England and play for a big Club like West Ham.

“I have been thinking about West Ham for a long time now – I know the Technical Director Tim Steidten very well, because we have history at Werder Bremen together, and I have watched some games and seen how much quality there is in the team.

“The chance to play under the Head Coach [Lopetegui] is also really exciting. His playing style is important for me, and I am confident that under him I will be able to perform at my best, and score lots of goals.

“I love being close to supporters, and I’m really looking forward to meeting the West Ham fans. I have a very good feeling at the moment – I’m strong, fit and in shape – and I just want to get out there and start playing for them.”

Having kicked off his career with Werder Bremen, Füllkrug had two seasons with 1. FC Nürnberg, then fired both Hannover 96 and Werder to promotion to the Bundesliga, where he has scored 28 goals in 59 appearances for Bremen and Borussia Dortmund across the previous two campaigns.

Füllkrug was outstanding last season, netting in UEFA Champions League wins over Newcastle United, Atlético Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain, registering 20 direct goal involvements in 29 Bundesliga appearances, and scoring six goals in just 470 minutes of playing time across 12 international caps for Germany. In all, he scored 21 goals and assisted eleven more in 54 games for club and country.

Having worked with Füllkrug at Werder Bremen, as mentioned above, Technical Director Tim Steidten has long admired the 31-year-old.

“We are delighted to have signed Niclas,” said Steidten. “I have worked with him previously and I know what he will bring to us in terms of his physical and finishing qualities, as well as his character and mentality.

“He has enjoyed a really positive last couple of seasons, both at club level, where he played in the Champions League final last season, and with Germany at the Euros this summer, and he joins us with a clear desire to build upon that progress and prove himself in the Premier League.

“Niclas has great experience and is at the stage of his career where we feel he can really give us his best years. He is someone who we have watched very closely, and who we believe will be an excellent fit for the team and for the Club. We look forward to seeing the qualities he will bring.

“The Board continue to show their backing by bringing in top-class players to strengthen the squad at West Ham United.”