Leeds United have perfect Brighton blueprint if season continues to collapse: View | OneFootball

Leeds United are almost certainly heading for the Championship play-offs, knowing they need a minor miracle during their clash with Southampton this weekend, as well as a favour from Huddersfield Town against Ipswich Town.

Daniel Farke's side had been the form team in the division in 2024 up until the international break, although they were defeated for the first time at home in the league against Blackburn Rovers recently, at a critical point in the campaign, and a defeat to QPR has all-but-ended their hopes of automatic promotion.

It's likely to mean a play-off campaign for the first time since 2019, when Leeds were in this position before, having been involved in a three-horse race for automatic promotion with Norwich City and Sheffield United. Marcelo Bielsa in his first season in charge then oversaw a two-legged defeat to Derby County.

They remain in good hands, as the former Norwich City boss is a two-time Championship winner and is aiming for a third promotion in as many years from the second tier. Leeds may well need Wembley for Farke to make it a hat-trick of promotions, with the final to be held on Sunday 26th May, and the data suggests they have a real chance.

The Championship play-offs

Of course, the main focus for Leeds this weekend will be beating Southampton to enter the play-offs with some sort of form and momentum behind them, but the other aspect is finding out their opponent in the battle for sixth, with the Whites guaranteed to finish at least third this term.

However, as shown below, teams with the best form tend to perform well, which is somewhat unsurprising, meaning Hull City are perhaps a team to want to avoid. Some consolation for Leeds fans is that they are the favourites with the bookies, as well as the favourites statistically. The teams that finish third have a high chance over the last six years, and also in the Championship's history as well.

Leeds know all too well that the data doesn't necessarily tell the full story, though. In 2018/19 they became the first side to be top of the division at Christmas, and also the first team in the history of the Championship to win the first leg of the play-offs away from home and not qualify for the final, after their capitulation against Derby.

Bielsa, Brighton and blueprints

Of course, there are no guarantees, and Leeds could continue to unravel by taking their bad form in the regular league season through into the semi-finals, irrespective of their opponent and the stylistic match ups that may or may not be of benefit to Farke's side.

They have an awful historical record in the play-offs, particularly in the years from 2006-2009, where they played in three play-off campaigns - one in the Championship and two in League One. However, they have been able to bounce back on a number of occasions, including in 2010, when they went on to finish 2nd under Simon Grayson and avoid the play-offs altogether.

Then, in 2019, there were concerns that Bielsa may leave and key players could be sold, which will be no different this summer, if they do indeed crash out at the semi-final or final stage to miss out on an instant return to the Premier League. There are many parallels between the two Leeds teams in that sense, but they only lost Kemar Roofe and Pontus Jansson from the regular first-team group within that side, and recruited well to finish first under Bielsa instead.

It may not be quite the same story this time around, but plenty of other teams have seen similar occurrences. Brighton held the record for the highest-ever total for third place in 2016 before Leeds broke that this season, and eventually lost 3-1 on aggregate to Sheffield Wednesday in an agonising semi-final.

Leeds could end up with a similar fate, having been in the race for so long, only to miss out at the last hurdle, meaning their play-off campaign could crash and burn. However, Brighton stuck with Chris Hughton and went on to have a terrific 2016/17 campaign, sitting within the top two since the 14th gameweek and never relinquishing their place.

They have been in the Premier League ever since, and although Hughton eventually departed a few seasons later, it perhaps highlights the need for continuity and stability for Leeds next season by sticking with Farke, irrespective of whether they are a second tier side or find a way to reach the top-flight.