How Milan’s Champions League hopes look after zero points from two games | OneFootball

AC Milan have zero points from their first two Champions League games, but they were tough matches on paper and there are still six left to play. So, where do the qualification hopes stand?

Milan’s 2024-25 European campaign has begun with a 3-1 home defeat against Liverpool where they were outplayed thoroughly and a 1-0 defeat away against the German champions Bayer Leverkusen where they were perhaps a bit unlucky.

Naturally, not getting a single point out of six is not an ideal way to start, but how does it affect the chances of progressing in the new ‘big league’ system?

A reminder of the format

We broke down exactly how the new Champions League works before the season began, but in terms of reaching the knockouts the easiest thing to explain is that the top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the round of 16.

Then, the team who finish from 9th to 24th place (therefore the 16 teams below) will compete in a two-legged knock-out phase play-off to secure their path to the last 16 of the competition. Teams that finish 25th or lower will be eliminated, with no access to the UEFA Europa League.

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In the knockout phase, the teams which finished between 9th and 16th will be seeded in the play-off draw, meaning that finishing from 17th to 24th results in playing away from home in the second leg.

The eight clubs which prevail in the knockout phase play-offs will then progress to the round of 16, where they will each face one of the top-eight finishers, who will be seeded in that round. The pairings of the knockout phase will also be partly determined by where teams finish in the 36-team league.

Where Milan stand

Milan were not handed the easiest opponents with Real Madrid, Liverpool and Leverkusen drawn out, and what is striking is that the fixture list dictates they must play those three teams within the first four UCL games, meaning it is front-loaded in terms of difficulty.

After losing to the latter two, Milan have found themselves with their backs to the wall and with a very small margin for error because they are already in the ‘exclusion zone’, even if there are more manageable games on paper to come.

It could well be that six wins (minimum 18 points) are required to guarantee a top eight position, which for the Rossoneri would mean winning the remaining six games. Anywhere around 13 to 17 points probably should get 9th to 16th, then below that is more difficult to predict.

The next opponent is Club Brugge which simply has to be a win and is a chance to move up the standings. The away match at the Santiago Bernabeu against Real Madrid follows, which it would be realistic to presume won’t be a win, but we hope to be pleasantly surprised.

In November the decisive period comes: Slovan Bratislava (away, on paper the weakest of the 36 teams), Red Star (at home, the team who conceded four to Inter), Girona (at home) and Dinamo Zagreb (away, who lost 9-2 against Bayern in round one).

Milan are likely to have the obligation to win all five of the ‘easier’ games and that would give them a points total that should put them between 9th to 16th place. However, games are not played on paper and the field will do the talking, with consistency required above all.