Euro 2024 Stat Pack: Group stage wrap and last-16 trends points to 50/1 goalscorer bet | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - shares some betting insight and strategies to keep on your side as Euro 2024 heads into the knockout rounds...

Germany set to excite in knockouts - back shots & goals

Germany are everything England are not. Aggressive, attack-minded, in your face but also defensively vulnerable and lacking control.

I know which team I'd rather close the curtains on.

But I know which team I'd rather back to win a one-off knockout match. A clue, that team love fish and chips.

This tub-thumping style under Julian Nagelsmann has seen Germany make 585 final third passes in the tournament - that's 190 more than any other team. They also lead the way for final third entries (201), chances created (45), shots (57) and goals scored (8). This style won't change despite the increased jeopardy of knockout football and is going to lead to their games being very watchable. Keep goals and especially shots on your radar on Saturday against Denmark.

Football Only Bettor Euros Daily Podcast - Listen to Wednesday's tips here!

Italy's set piece threat will be live in knockout environment

Knockout football can be cagey and settled by fine margins. It's why set pieces are so important. Since the 2004 World Cup, 88 goals of the 344 goals scored in knockout stages of a major tournament have come via a set piece, excluding penalties. That's 25% of every goal scored coming from this method. If you've got your eye on that centre-back to score, pull the trigger would be my advice.

My eyes are drawn to the Italians with this set piece angle firmly in my thoughts. Only Croatia have created more expected goals at this tournament from set pieces than Italy, who have racked up 1.23 worth of expected data.

Alessandro Bastoni is usually the man on the end of the deliveries - he scored against Albania and missed two glorious chances against Croatia. Italy play Switzerland on Saturday at 5pm. And he's a gigantic 50/1 to open the scoring. Rude not to.

Knockout football trends: Cards and draws to the fore

When you ramp up the jeopardy factor in tournament football, two things to consider when betting on it is the increase in the probabilities of draws and cards. Since Euro 1996, those backing European Championship knockout matches to end all square will be sitting pretty with huge profits from their mansions. A staggering 45% of knockout matches have landed for draw backers.

And keeping the over cards lines on your side should prove a profitable call. Since Euro 1996 in the knockouts, the average cards per 90-minute stands at a whopping 4.76. That has been on show in the last-16 matches of the last two Euros where 13 of the last 16 matches have seen over 3.5 cards land.

Recommended bets

1pt on Alessandro Bastoni to score first @ 50/1