Euro 2024 Day Five Stat Pack: Czech Republic can fire shots at Portugal | OneFootball

Turkey vs Georgia (17:00) - Akturkoglu can strike at 12/5

Manchester United fans will know the name Kerem Aktürkoğlu - he scored in both Champions League meetings between Galatasaray and United last season.

His equaliser to level the game at 3-3 in Turkey was a special finish and one that stuck in mind. So, when assessing the likely goal threat for Turkey in this tournament his name stood out to me anyway - and my excitement for him to have a profitable tournament grew further when digging into his data when playing for his country.

He featured in all eight during a qualifying campaign that saw them finish above Croatia and head to Germany as group winners. A haul of just two goals isn't much to write home about but of players to have played over 150 minutes in qualifying his per 90 expected goals figure of 0.35 was the highest of any Turkish player.

It shows he is a big focal point in this team from his attacking midfield role. His 2.41 shots per 90 average also points to a player that is heavily involved in how this team construct their attacks. With all that in mind, I've been drawn in by his 12/53.40 anytime goalscorer price here.

Portugal vs Czech Republic (20:00) - Direct style could lead to high shot count

Portugal have been the pre-tournament buzz team at the prices. They possess a stacked squad in every position and won all 10 matches in qualification doing handstands, putting up some impressive metrics in the process.

But how strong is that form? That, along with overthinker extraordinaire Roberto Martinez in the dugout, is enough to keep me off the Portugal bandwagon at this stage. I think their current ante post price of 13/27.50 with the Betfair Sportsbook is about right.

This could be a fiddly encounter for them as a tournament opener. Unlike Portugal, I'm pretty confident in how the Czechs will approach this test. They will be in your face, get the ball forward quickly and try to create chances from sending ball into the box, looking for Patrick Schick and Tomas Soucek. No team attempted more open play crosses per 90 minutes than Czech Republic in qualifying (20.5) and they averaged 4.5 shots per 90 from headers, only Serbia averaged more.

Teams that play this way are always of interest for me in the total shots market as they play their football in the final third where obviously the chances of shooting at goal are higher.

They recorded a per 90 average of 16.63 shots in qualifying - the sixth highest of any team - that was more than England, Belgium and Italy.

Uefa European Championship Qualifiers - Top 10 Shots

Full stats

Powered by

And although their choice of weak opposition if you include friendlies in their recent results makes these numbers a little skewed, it's hard to ignore the fact Czech Republic have posted at least 13 shots in 12 of their last 13 matches.

I think they can give their allocated shots line a real test here with the 5/61.84 about them registering nine shots looking so tasty that the higher lines need to be backed too. For the purposes of the tracked bets I'll be having a crack at the 13 or more shots line at 4/15.00.

Now head to our Euro 2024 HUB for more day four content!

Follow Lewis' Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports

Football Only Bettor: Euros Daily Podcast - listen here for Tuesday's tips!