England v Slovakia: Back 3/1 Kane to KO punchy Slovakia | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Harry Kane can find the net for England against Slovakia

Paul Higham expects England to scrap their way past Slovakia on Sunday with Harry Kane getting back to knockout form and a 4/1 shot on a busy game for both keepers...

England v Slovakia Superboost

Betfair customers have voted for Sunday's Superboost to be 'England NOT to have a shot in the first 10 minutes (v Slovakia)'. They clearly know their stuff, as the Three Lions have failed to have a single attempt in the opening 10 minutes of any of their three Euro 2024 games so far.

The selection has had a (super) boost up to 3/1!

England v SlovakiaSunday 30 June, 17:00 kick-offLive on ITV 1

On the face of it the cards couldn't have fallen better for Gareth Southgate's 4/1 tournament favourites with Slovakia ending up being their last-16 opponents instead of the Netherlands - despite what some might say I still think the Dutch would be tougher opposition.

There's rumbling and grumblings as always, and I suppose you can only really judge Southgate's methods and team selections once the tournament is over - but it was odd he didn't give the likes of Cole Palmer and Anthony Gordon more minutes in the draw with Slovenia.

It means that although Kobbie Mainoo will likely start in midfield, there's unlikely to be changes to the front four - with only Bukayo Saka losing out to Palmer the only change I could realistically see.

England are 1/7 to qualify and 4/11 to get the job done in 90 minutes, with Slovakia 7/1 in the match odds and 9/2 to qualify and cause a second stunning upset in Germay - following their shock 1-0 win over Belgium in the group.

Southgate's overriding tactic is pretty clear, defend first knowing a clean sheet gives his talented forward line every chance of pinching a goal to win the game - it's tried and tested as they didn't concede at all until the semis in Euro 2020 and kept three clean sheets in five games at the Qatar World Cup.

And in Germany with a tournament low of just 1.15xG against them England's defence has been the stingiest - and although Slovakia have scored in every game and had their best ever return of 37 shots and 13 on target in a major tournament group it's not an attack England should fear too much.

Yes, it could be another grind, only three of Southgate's 10 knockout games have had over 2.5 goals in, so even with an early goal don't expect England to blow this team away, but the Three Lions should get this job done.

Back Kane to come good

Harry Kane's not been at his best but for a few reasons he's worth backing to score anytime even at 1/1 - as Slovkia were not exactly water tight at the back with an xG against of almost 4.5 in the groups - plus in major tournament knockouts Kane has averaged a goal a game in his last six.

And given we're backing the unders on goals, it's worth taking the skipper at 3/1 for first goalscorer in Gelsenkirchen against a Slovakia side that has the highest average age in the tournament and where Francesco Calzona made just one change to the starting XI in the groups.

That could expose them to England's quick-footed attackers, especially later on, and with Kane also on the pens and England the second-most fouled side in the competition, that's a decent combination.

Have a super saver on the keepers

Finally, just because I'm not expecting too many goals doesn't mean there won't be shots - and especially shots from distance from Slovkia especially - whose average shot has come from just over 18 yards out.

England are shooting from even further out - just over 19 yards on average, which was stretched to 21 against Slovenia, so what that means is a high volume of shots from a distance you'd expect keepers to save from.

Martin Dubravka has made 11 saves from 14 shots on target while Jordan Pickford saved eight from nine - albeit that one coming from long range against Denmark, who forced him into six saves.

Keepers have combined for seven shots in all three of Slovakia's games, but given the extra urgency here, England's soft midfield and Slovakia's love of having a dig - the 4/1 on is very achieveable.

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