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·15 November 2024
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·15 November 2024
Sam Szmodics can help land 9/2 bet
England vs Republic of IrelandSunday 17 NovemberLive on ITV1
Hands up. I got England completely wrong in Greece. And I paid the price financially.
I was keen to lay the Three Lions in what looked a great spot for the home side but credit to Lee Carsley for getting a tune out of the players in what was, really, a pointless friendly for England in the long-term - no matter how the broadcasters tried to sell it.
But Carsley has seemingly convinced his squad that promotion back up to the top tier of the Nations League is a big deal and if they beat the Republic of Ireland, for which they are 2/13 to do so, it will be mission accomplished of getting back to League A.
Yes, 3-0 flattered them on Thursday in Greece but goalkeepers are there to make saves at key moments and Jordan Pickford showed once again his importance to this England side.
He always steps up when it matters.
Pickford has been particularly busy under Carsley's watch.
The interim boss does like to play expansive and pressing football, which does suit many of these current England stars, but it's a style that does leave his teams vulnerable to opposition creating high quality chances when they do break through. The Three Lions have faced 11 shots on target in their last three games, including five in Greece on Thursday night.
The Republic of Ireland are a limited attacking outfit but in Sam Szmodics they do possess a player in great form - and one that can trouble England's high-line.
He played alongside Evan Ferguson up top in Ireland's 1-0 win over Finland, registering six touches in the opposition box and was caught offside four times, showcasing just how much he likes to play on the line and get in behind.
I'm keen on backing him to add to his healthy shots on target record of late at Wembley. He's had four efforts on target in his last five starts for Ireland, including registering their only shot on target in the 2-0 defeat to England in Dublin.
He's an all-action type of player that is enjoying life in the Premier League with Ipswich following his move from Blackburn in the summer. He was the catalyst for their 2-1 win at Tottenham before the international break where he scored one and played a huge role in the other goal, scored by Liam Delap.
In fact, in just seven starts this season he's hit the target with a shot on six occasions, scoring three times.
Fresh from two shots on target against Finland, the Ipswich man can find a way to Pickford's goal and register another effort on target at a bulky 7/5 with the Betfair Sportsbook.
Say want you want about the Nations League but this will be treated like a very serious game for many of the Irish players. Playing at Wembley against England will get the juices flowing - much like they were in the previous meeting where Ireland committed 15 fouls in the clash in Dublin.
I'd expect the same level of feistiness on show, especially in central areas where England have foul drawing supremos.
Jude Bellingham has drawn a whopping 3.08 fouls per 90 in his last 15 starts for his country as teams have found out quickly there is usually only one way to stop him.
He's going to be joined in that central area by the deep-dropping Harry Kane, who has drawn two or more fouls in six of his last 10 international starts for England.
With that foul-fest in mind, my eyes have been drawn to Ireland central midfielder Josh Cullen to commit two or more fouls at 13/10.
In his last three starts for his country, the Burnley midfielder has made eight fouls and is going to be in the firing line yet again. Even for his club he's averaging 1.57 fouls per 90 this season as he does like to break up play in terrier-like fashion.
If combining the Szmodics angle with the Cullen multiple fouls play, you get yourself a value soaked 9/2 shot to cheer on.