Croatia v Scotland: Clarke's men to sink again

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·12 October 2024

Croatia v Scotland: Clarke's men to sink again

3 min read

Scott McTominay is on great form for club and country

Scotland have competed well but lost in both of their Nations League matches so far, and Kevin Hatchard isn't convinced things will improve against Croatia...

Croatia v ScotlandSaturday 12 October, 17:00Live on Premier Player

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Dalic looking to rebuild after Euros exit

It says a lot for how Croatia coach Zlatko Dalic has raised the bar during his tenure that Euro 2024 was seen as a disappointment. A 3-0 hammering by eventual champions Spain put the Vatreni under pressure, and subsequent draws with Albania and Italy (Mattia Zaccagni equalized in stoppage time) saw Croatia eliminated. Given that Croatia reached the final of the 2018 World Cup and finished third four years later in Qatar, the summer represented a jarring failure.

Croatia now look to have another impressive run in the Nations League, having reached the final last year, only to lose on penalties to Spain after a goalless draw. They started the latest League A campaign with a 2-1 reverse in Portugal, but a 1-0 home win against Poland has got them back in contention. That win over Poland stretched their winning run at home to three matches, and Croatia have only lost two of their last 17 internationals on their own patch.

Dalic can still call upon hugely experienced midfielders like Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic - the pair have 286 caps between them - and he is still selecting PSV winger Ivan Perisic at the age of 35. The challenge is to bring through the next generation, and there is excitement about Dinamo Zagreb starlets Martin Baturina and Petar Sucic, with the latter recently scoring a superb goal against Monaco in the Champions League.

Perisic is expected to recover from a knock, while Manchester City's Kovacic missed training for personal reasons but could return. Eintracht Frankfurt striker Igor Matanovic is pushing for a start in attack after scoring his first Bundesliga goal recently, while Hoffenheim's Andrej Kramaric has already netted four club goals this term.

Clarke needs to spark Scottish upturn soon

Like his opposite number Zlatko Dalic, Steve Clarke has plenty of credit in the bank with his national team. The Scotland boss has made history by qualifying for back-to-back European Championships, but he faces perhaps the greatest challenge of his tenure. The summer debacle at Euro 2024 soured the mood - Scotland took a single point in the group stage and were one of the worst teams at the tournament - and the bare truth is that the Tartan Army have been able to cheer just two wins in the last 15 internationals.

This latest Nations League campaign is at the highest level, and that isn't working in Scotland's favour. They were defensively sloppy in a 3-2 home defeat against Poland, and although they took an early lead in Portugal, they ultimately fell to an agonizing 2-1 reverse. That means Scotland have now lost nine of their last 14 internationals.

There is at least some joy to be gleaned from the form of Scott McTominay. The midfielder has been a big hit in Italy with Napoli, and recently scored in the very first minute of a 3-1 win over Como. Napoli are top of Serie A, and the former Manchester United box-crasher is playing his part.

Clarke has had to deal with plenty of injury issues, and this international break appears to be no exception. First-choice keeper Angus Gunn is unavailable, as is striker Lawrence Shankland. They join an injury list that already included John McGinn, Aaron Hickey and Scott McKenna.

Croatia win the likeliest option

Although Scotland played well in Portugal, their recent record is poor, and injuries have bitten hard. Clarke has been unable to stem the tide in defence, as Scotland have leaked a staggering 33 goals across their last 14 internationals.

McTominay can at least test Livakovic

Although Scotland are the clear outsiders here, I'm pleasantly surprised to see Scott McTominay priced at 11/10 just to have a shot on target. He netted Scotland's early opener in Portugal, and he has scored in three of his last four international appearances. If you go back further, McTominay has scored in eight of his last 18 caps, and he should at least be able to give Croatia keeper Dominik Livakovic something to do across the 90 minutes.