Crawley Town v Crewe Alexandra: Wembley a game too far for Bell's Alex | OneFootball

Crawley Town v Crewe AlexandraSunday 19th May, kick-off 13:00Live on Sky Sports

Anyone who had predicted Crawley v Crewe to be in Sunday's final would have been laughed out of town prior to the semi-finals and the prices - even more so when the Alex lost at home to Doncaster with Donny then 1/1001.01 on the Sportsbook to qualify.

Lee Bell's side, seemingly decimated by injuries and bereft of form produced the most unlikeliest of comebacks when going through the penalty shoot-out route. They were at one stage 35+ on the Exchange for promotion.

Having lost both league meetings with Crewe this season, The Red Devils could become just the fourth side in the fourth tier this century to lose both league games but get promoted in the play-off final against the same side after Cheltenham Town in 2006, Dagenham and Redbridge in 2010 and Morecambe in 2021.

Crewe enter the League Two play-off final having won just two of their last 11 games (D4 L5), while their 2-0 second-leg win over Doncaster was the first time they'd scored more than once in a game since a 3-2 defeat to Morecambe at the beginning of March.

All very unlikely, but here we are.

Crewe outsiders for another shock

Crawley at 21/202.05 in the Match Odds edge favouritism here with Crewe at 5/23.50 with the draw at perhaps shorter than usual at 15/82.88.

This will be Crawley's first ever appearance at Wembley, while Crewe will be making their fifth appearance there, winning on each of their last three trips (D1), but my gut reaction here is that this could be a game too far for Bell's team.

Remember, Bell had said March that his players look on the floor, and they certainly looked that way in the first leg with Doncaster.

Crawley are the more pragmatic in terms of tactics as they keep their shape well, fairly disciplined and organised and are happy to concede possession most of the time. That certainly helped them in the rout against the MK Dons, who were far too passive with the ball and Scott Lindsey's side were lethal.

An 8-1 aggregate against a pretty good side was a bit of a freak let's be honest, but there isn't anything between the two on their body of work for the season - with the pair finishing 6th and 7th and just a point difference between them.

I can't back another shock in terms of Crewe, and it could be a game too far, so the angle is to play Crawley in here with another selection to boost their price. No one would have inserted them at 10/111.91 to win a Wembley final.

BTTS to add to the Bet Builder

On the head-to-heads this season, backers of Over 2.5 Goals will be referencing the Crewe 2-4 win in Sussex last October, but the Under 2.5 Goals supporters will be seeking solace closer to this month with the dull and drab 1-0 in February. That was a game of barely a chance with Crewe registering one shot on target.

Both had fairly lowly xG numbers too overall with Crawley, who are more aggressive in the press at 1.49 xG and Crewe at just 1.16.

Backers of the Under 2.5 Goals will be worried about that 8-1 aggregate, but Crewe make mistakes at the back, and while good in transitions, can be vulnerable with attackers running directly at them, and they've been exposed that way this term.

I'd rather go with the BTTS here for the Bet Builder and the 4/61.67 is adequate, and including that with Crawley gives as a double of a price near 5/23.50. Crawley's eight goals across their play-off semi-final against MK Dons is the most by a side in their first two games in the Football League play-offs.

Bell's team look a better bet for corners

I've gone for a Corners bet in the League One game and that market is another I am liking for Sunday as Crewe are the bigger of the two to win the match bet.

As I outlined previously, Crawley are likely to concede possession with Bell a canny tactician with his team. Crawley started quickly in the MK game in Buckinghamshire and scored early in both halves - albeit helped by the Dons overplaying at the back.

An early goal puts the onus on Crewe to chase a bit, and the 8/52.60 on the Corners Match Bet really appeals. Town lost that bet in both legs against the Dons, and even lost the corners despite winning the match 5-1 (with only one corner).

Orsi the star can get us off to a fast start

Two of Jay Williams' three goals for Crawley in all competitions this season came across both legs of the semi-finals against MK Dons.

Indeed, the last player to score in both legs and the final in a single year in the EFL play-offs was James Wilson, and Williams is a massive 9/110.00 in the Anytime Scorer.

Very popular will be Danilo Orsi, whose hat-trick in the second leg at MK Dons took his tally 24 goals in all competitions.

Delving deeper into his numbers, he's a big game player. His shot accuracy is at 51% and in terms of "Big Chances" created on the stats, big chances are 21 of those goals.

He was kept quiet in the first leg at MK with hardly any touches, but he exposed the Dons' defence problems, and I think Crewe have a few of their own.

We'll go First Scorer here at 4/15.00 as he takes penalties too.