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·24 June 2024
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·24 June 2024
Will it be three wins from three for Spain
Spain are safely through into the knockout stages by virtue of their two wins already. It's likely that they'll rotate their starting line up but remains to be seen how much rotation will take place. Regardless, they still have one of the strongest benches in the competition and any players coming in will be equally capable of causing problems to this Albanian defence.
The generous price for Spain to win reflects their potential lack of motivation and the must win scenario for Albania, but with players vying for consideration for the knockout round and the still huge gulf in quality between the two sides, I can't look past another Spanish win here to make it three out of three.
Albania will be proud of their efforts so far in the competition and despite the last minute drama of a late equaliser against Croatia, they could have put this game to bed if they finished off their first half chances. With just a point so far, they have to take the game to the Spanish and go for a win to have any chance of qualifying. This will open up spaces for the Spanish to attack and should lead to goals.
Albania have shown already that they are capable of creating chances against quality opposition, so they could also trouble Spain in equal measure. In such a high scoring tournament so far, it would be very surprising if this doesn't come in.
Although Croatia have picked up fewer bookings than their opponents in both their Euros games so far, this game has the vital context of it being an absolute must win game for the Croats. They will have been crestfallen with the way the Albania game materialised, having fought back from 1-0 down to 2-1 up and then conceding an equaliser deep into injury time.
The senior players in the team will know that despite a new generation coming through, this will likely be Luka Modric's last tournament appearance and they'll be fighting for every ball in this encounter. Italy only need a draw to secure a place in the knockout rounds and will be quite happy to try and frustrate their opponents. I like the odds on this to buck the recent trend for Croatia, given all we know about the current situation in the group.
Gianluigi Donarumma was outstanding against the Spanish, with a phenomenal 8 saves. We don't expect the same level of attacking threat by Croatia, but the Croats had an xG of 2.3 against the Spaniards and were unfortunate not to come out of that game with at least a goal. Their game against Albania also saw them shoot five attempts on target, so there is certainly an attacking threat there.
Italy conceded the opening goal against Albania and were fortunate to come out of that Spain game with just a 1-0 defeat. With the game context as it is, and Croatia proving they can create chances, if not put them away, we expect the Italian goalkeeper to have work to do on the night and a very reasonable chance of having to make at least a few saves.
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