Best Bets for an Epic Soccer Sunday | OneFootball

While we soccer fans are reluctantly about to head into an International Break that will deprive us of club soccer action for a couple of weeks, the Gambling Gods have been gracious enough to offer us a parting gift: a Sunday stacked with titanic club clashes from all across Europe.

On the American west coast, Sunday’s epic action begins at 4:30AM, when Napoli travel to Venezia, looking to go two points clear of Inter at the top of the Serie A table. One hour later, Celtic host Rangers in the latest iteration of The Old Firm Derby. From then on, huge matches kick off every hour.

Arsenal host Chelsea in a London Derby, Athletic Bilbao travel to Sevilla, Fiorentina host Juventus, Liverpool and Newcastle United slug it out at Wembley, Stuttgart face Bayer Leverkusen, and Inter travel to Atalanta, with an opportunity to overtake Napoli once again (should Napoli win in Venice). This massive day of European soccer won’t be over until around 3:00PM, after Atletico Madrid have played host to Barcelona, and PSG have finished battling Marseille in a 12:45PM installment of Le Classique.

There are dozens of bets to be placed across several huge matches that should keep any soccer bettor glued to his or her TV for nearly 12 hours, but here, I’m just going to share a few bets from the podcast I co-host, The Soccer Sharps.

Liverpool v. Newcastle United (EFL Cup Final)

It’s with bitter disappointment that Liverpool come into Sunday’s EFL Cup Final. On Tuesday, they were eliminated from the Champions League when they lost a penalty shootout at home to PSG. While their hopes of winning a treble have now been dashed, the opportunity for Liverpool to win a double is still on the table, and it starts with hoisting the EFL Cup trophy for the second time in two seasons.

Newcastle United, on the other hand, have not won any major domestic silverware in nearly 70 years. They find themselves on the cusp of making history – this clash with Liverpool at Wembley is all that stands in their way.

Our picks: Liverpool ML (-143) & Liverpool/Newcastle u3 AT (-130)

My podcast co-host, Devin, and I have each selected a play for this Final. I’m backing Liverpool to bounce back from their midweek misfortune. Arne Slot will have his team focused and ready to go on Sunday, and I think Liverpool will win the match in the initial 90min period. Devin predicts that this match will be relatively tight, with big chances at a premium. He’s chosen to take under 3 goals(u3) on the Asian Total(AT) market, which means that if the match produces exactly 3 goals in the 90min period, the bet will result in a push. Recent data support Devin’s selection. Across the last 10 EFL Cup Finals, only one has seen more than three goals, while eight have seen two goals or fewer.

Atalanta v. Inter (Serie A)

Currently, Inter sit in first place in the Serie A table, just one point ahead of chasers, Napoli. But with Napoli likely to secure three points on their trip to Venezia early on Sunday, Inter may well travel to Bergamo in need of three points of their own to ensure that they sit in top spot as they head into the International Break. We believe that Inter can pick up those three points, but we’re even more confident that Inter can avoid defeat to Atalanta.

Our pick: Inter DC & u3.5 (+105)

While Atalanta are certainly no mugs, and should never be taken lightly, especially at home, Inter are a class above. Atalanta have failed to beat Inter in any of their last 14 attempts, while Inter have won outright against Atalanta in seven straight head-to-head meetings. We should be relatively safe in taking Inter/Draw double chance(DC), which means taking Inter to win or draw. This selection on its own is too juiced, so we have to tack on another selection from the match to provide a playable price.

Due to the importance of this match for both teams (Atalanta currently sit third in Serie A, and could go as high as first with a win in this match), we aren’t expecting many goals. Inter are a stout defensive unit, and they tend to set up pragmatically on the road, especially in big games. While this fixture has provided plenty of goals over the years, largely down to the wealth of attacking talent both teams possess, we feel the situation trumps previous head-to-head data. By tacking on under 3.5 goals(u3.5) to our Inter DC selection, we get a price of +105. We’re more than happy with that, as it’s hard to imagine four or more goals being scored in this match.

Atletico Madrid v. Barcelona (La Liga)

We round out our selections with the last of the big matches to kick off on Sunday. A huge top-of-the-table clash in Spain, La Liga’s second place team, Barcelona, travel to the capital to take on third place, Atletico Madrid. Just one point separates these two titans of the Spanish game, and this fixture promises fireworks.

Our pick: Atleti/Barcelona BTTS & o2.5 (-125)

We’ve talked about games of this magnitude often petering out into cagey stalemates, but this particular match may go differently. The last time these teams met was just a few weeks back in the first leg of a Copa del Rey semifinal tie. The first legs of two-legged ties, especially those taking place in the latter stages of a competition, tend to be pretty tight. However, the first leg between these two delivered eight goals! Indeed, we were treated to a 4-4 thriller on the day, and while that may be a bit of an outlier, it shows that these teams aren’t afraid to take it to each other, regardless of what may be on the line.

The reverse fixture in La Liga this season saw Atletico Madrid take the three points in a 2-1 away victory. So while a 4-4 may be a bridge too far for this particular meeting, another 2-1 or 2-2 could easily be on the cards. We’re happy to back both teams to find the net at least once, and we’re pretty confident that at least one of the sides can score twice. Both teams to score(BTTS), parlayed with over 2.5 goals(o2.5) to be scored in the match, comes in at the price of -125. Typically, in a match like this, we’d want a bit bigger payout for this selection, but the fact that a shorter price is on offer tells us the bookies are aligned with our thinking.

Best of luck to you, reader, with all of your bets for this glorious Soccer Sunday, and please, bet responsibly.

For more in-depth analysis of these bets, and others, check out The Soccer Sharps podcast.

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