Aston Villa v Olympiakos Tips: Ollie Watkins to tee up first leg advantage for Villans

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·2 May 2024

Aston Villa v Olympiakos Tips: Ollie Watkins to tee up first leg advantage for Villans

Aston Villa's season goes from strength to strength under Unai Emery, and they should have what it takes to secure safe passage to this season's UEFA Europa Conference final, starting on Thursday...

Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey to provide Villa's impetus
Villa to seize first leg advantage without dramas
Semi-final appearances in European competition aren't exactly familiar territory for Aston Villa, but they most certainly are for manager Unai Emery. While the Villans are preparing for just their second ever semi-final in a major European competition, this will be Emery's eighth in the space of 12 years - all eight of which have been in the Champions or Europa League.
Indeed, the Spaniard has been battling it out at a higher level than their current competition for quite some time now. As recently as 2022, his underdog Villarreal side were just a game away from reaching the Champions League final, having eliminated the almighty Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals. Perhaps it goes without saying he and Villa 10/111.91 are the current favourites to win the UEFA Europa Conference League outright this term.
As for his next challenge, Villa's upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League semi-final tie against Olympiakos will also see Emery come up against a familiar foe. His opposite number Jose Luis Mendilibar hails from the same province in Spain as the current Villa boss, and they've had plenty of managerial duels over the years too.
Through their 13 clashes as opposing coaches - all of which have been in La Liga - Emery has won seven of those (D2 L4), including four of five home matches (L1). The last time they faced off was in the 2020-21 campaign, with the Villa boss beating Mendilibar's Eibar home and away that season to make it three consecutive wins for Emery in the head-to-head.
With Mendilibar being an old school type, one uninterested in possession unless its for attacking sake, it's likely the initiative will fall on Villa in this tie. Olympiakos averaged just 39% possession in the quarter-finals against Fenerbahce, yet managed to progress on penalties after a spirited resistance in the second leg. For Villa, the pattern of the tie should mean they're the ones able to create the better chances.
Of course, Emery's side also needed penalties to progress from the previous round. Emi Martinez's shootout heroics against Lille provided safe passage to this point, but there's reason to think they've already passed their hardest test. Paulo Fonseca's side are currently battling to qualify for the Champions League this term, and Villa also played Arsenal away in between the two legs to add to the difficulty.
Since the start of 2020-21, Unai Emery has only lost two of his 20 home games as a manager in major European competition, while winning 16 of those (D2). With such a wealth of experience at the business end of tournaments, along with the best squad of players remaining in the competition, I can only opt for Emery's formidable European record to hold up again here.
With that said, the first legs of European knockout ties he's been involved in have tended to be low scoring. Emery's attention to detail and control of events has rarely seen the goals flow on either side, with only two of his last nine first leg matches in the knockout stages seeing more than two goals (1.8 per game on average).
Watkins and Bailey have starred this season
With Villa now very much at the business end of the competition, it seems likely Emery will thinking less about rotation for their European games and more about giving themselves the best chance to be in the final. None of Villa's players have started every game in the UEFA Europa Conference League this term, but now ought to be time for their best XI to arrive.
That means Ollie Watkins, of course. The England striker has been directly involved in 38 goals in 48 games this season, netting 26 times and providing 12 assists. Indeed, he's also netted in four of his six starts in Europe this term (four goals), including one in his last outing in this competition at Villa Park against Lille.
Along with a recommendation for Watkins to score anytime at 11/102.11, I'll also add Leon Bailey to land 1+ shot on target and Youri Tielemans to commit 1+ foul in the match.
While Bailey can be the one to really drive the game forward for Villa and assert their intentions in the first leg of this tie on home soil, he also leads all Villa players for shots (18) in the UEFA Europa Conference League this term. In fact, the Jamaican has had at least one shot in all nine of his appearances in the competition this season, even with coming off the bench three times.
Tielemans, meanwhile, has averaged 1.4 fouls per 90 in European games this season, with his 12 overall fouls being the most of any Aston Villa player. In a game against an Olympiakos side who will be aggressive and direct under Mendilibar, expect the Belgian to be in the thick of a few battles while they try to settle the game down.

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Aston Villa v Olympiakos Tips: Ollie Watkins to tee up first leg advantage for Villans | OneFootball

Aston Villa v Olympiakos Tips: Ollie Watkins to tee up first leg advantage for Villans

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