2024-25 Bundesliga Outright Tips: 11/4 Leverkusen can retain their crown, St Pauli to go straight back down | OneFootball

German Bundesliga

Granit Xhaka's Leverkusen won the German double last season

Last season was one of the most exciting in recent memory in Germany, and Bundesliga world feed commentator Kevin Hatchard expects another fascinating campaign. He's picked out three ante-post bets ahead of the new season.

Bundesliga Winner: Leverkusen the value option

Bayer Leverkusen broke new ground in so many ways last season, and their efforts gave the top end of the Bundesliga the jolt of excitement and unpredictability it sorely needed. Xabi Alonso's men became the league's first ever unbeaten champions, lifting the coveted meisterschale for the first time in the club's history, and they also won the DFB Pokal for the first time since the 1990s. Indeed, had Die Werkself not lost to Atalanta in the Europa League final in Dublin, it would've been the perfect campaign.

Leverkusen have already bagged their first trophy of this campaign, as they somehow came back from a goal down and a man down to beat Stuttgart on penalties in the DFL Supercup. It was a sign of Bayer's remarkable force of will under Xabi Alonso, and a sign they can still mix it with the best teams in Germany.

At time of writing, Bayer have kept all of their key players (centre-back Jonathan Tah is the most likely player to leave), and they have made some smart additions. Midfield orchestrator Aleix Garcia helped Girona qualify for the Champions League last term, forward Martin Terrier was sent off on his debut but should be a good capture from Rennes, and teenage left-back Jeanuel Belocian is a promising defender.

Leverkusen have gone a stunning 41 games unbeaten against domestic opposition, and I see no reason why they will suddenly fall apart. At 11/4 to retain their title, they are worth backing, not least because Xabi Alonso's commitment to the cause (he rejected Liverpool and Bayern in the summer) will further galvanise the group.

At 1/2 following their first trophyless season since 2012, Bayern Munich are a bigger price than they have been for a long time, and there are still question marks. The acquisition of Vincent Kompany as coach is being spun as the hiring of a Pep Guardiola acolyte who is a rising star, and while it may work in the fullness of time, there's no guarantee it will deliver an instant return to league glory.

While Bayern undoubtedly have the strongest squad in the division - they have added Fulham's midfield destroyer Joao Palhinha and Crystal Palace's wing wizard Michael Olise to a group that was already full of talent - there has been a lack of consistency in the last two seasons. Kompany has impressed club bosses with his demeanour and the intense football he wants to play, but a few bad results will teach the Belgian what a political maze Säbener Strasse can be when things go wrong.

Harry Kane should cruise to the top scorer's trophy again, and I can understand why Bayern are favourites, but I just can't get excited about backing a team at odds-on when they finished 18 points behind Leverkusen last term.

Top Four: Back Leipzig and Dortmund to nail down UCL spots

While I'm not sure if RB Leipzig or Borussia Dortmund will push for the title, I'm more than happy to back them to finish in the top four. Stuttgart have done wonders under cerebral coach Sebastian Hoeness, but I think at least eight Champions League games will stretch their squad, and they simply aren't used to competing in Europe. The loss of Waldemar Anton, Serhou Guirassy and Hiroki Ito is collectively huge.

Leipzig have kept hold of Slovenia striker Benjamin Sesko, and his partnership with Lois Openda in attack should continue to blossom. Belgian forward Openda whacked in 24 league goals last term, while Sesko scored in each of his last seven Bundesliga games of the campaign. Dani Olmo has departed to Barcelona, but the retention of Dutch star Xavi is a massive boost.

Die Roten Bullen have stability in the coaching position with Leipzig native Marco Rose, and they have signed some young wild cards in Norwegian winger Antonio Nusa and German youth midfielder Assan Ouedraogo.

Borussia Dortmund parted company with coach and BVB superfan Edin Terzic, despite him leading them to the Champions League final at Wembley. The doubts over Terzic's coaching nous just became too loud and persistent, so he walked the plank rather than risk outstaying his welcome. Former Dortmund midfielder Nuri Sahin has been promoted from within to replace him, and Die Schwarzgelben hope he is their answer to Xabi Alonso.

The summer transfer business has been mixed. Ian Maatsen and Jadon Sancho weren't retained despite successful loans, while bustling striker Niclas Füllkrug was allowed to join West Ham. On a more positive note, the forward line has been reshaped with the arrival of Stuttgart star Serhou Guirassy and young Hoffenheim forward Maximilian Beier. Guirassy and Beier scored 44 league goals between them last term, and if you want a good each-way bet in the Top Goalscorer market, Germany's Beier is your man at 50/1.

The capture of Brighton veteran Pascal Gross is really interesting, as is the arrival of full-back Yan Couto, who was brilliant for Girona last term. One of the most important signings could be centre-back Waldemar Anton, who will look to fill the void left by the departure of Mats Hummels.

I'll back both RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund to finish in the top four at 2.35.

Season Specials: German gems can sparkle

One fun bet from the Season Specials section of the Sportsbook is to back Germany stars Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala to rack up 10 goals each and 10 assists each in the Bundesliga at 11/4. Wirtz got 11 in each category last term, while Musiala delivered ten goals and six assists. Both had bright moments at Euro 2024, but the only thing that would put me off slightly is the demands of the expanded Champions League. With eight group games, will Wirtz and Musiala be protected by their coaches and left on the bench at times in the Bundesliga?

Relegation: Buccaneers set to run aground

While it's great to see St Pauli back in the Bundesliga for the first time since 2012, I get the sense they are there for a good time and not a long time. The defection of inspirational coach Fabian Hürzeler to Brighton is a disaster, and while his replacement Alexander Blessin did great work in Belgium with Union SG, there are no guarantees he can translate that to success in Germany.

St Pauli lost influential midfielder Marcel Hartel to MLS side St. Louis FC, and they have spent less than two million euros on transfers and loans. While they do have a fairly kind start to the season (they face Heidenheim, Union Berlin and Augsburg in the first three matchdays), they'll be in big trouble if they don't put points on the board early on. At 13/8, I think the Buccaneers are a good bet to go straight back down.

Heidenheim made everyone's jaws drop last term by somehow qualifying for Europe, but they have lost key players Tim Kleindienst (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and Jan-Niklas Beste (Benfica), and the squad just doesn't look strong enough to fight on two fronts. Coach Frank Schmidt is a force of nature and an incredibly smart operator, but he has a big task to keep FCH away from danger. They are 9/4 to go down.

I can understand why Holstein Kiel are the 11/10 favourites to suffer the drop, but it's too short a price to tie your money up for a whole season, and I want to see how they adapt to life in the top division after years of knocking on the door.

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