Sweden v England: Back Lionesses to progress, but it won't be easy | OneFootball

Euro 2025

Can England once again beat Sweden at a major tournament?

England are building momentum at Euro 2025, and while Kevin Hatchard believes the holders will make the final four, it might take a while to break down stubborn Sweden.

Sweden v EnglandThursday 17 July, 20:00Live on BBC One

Sweden looking to prove they can deliver

Sweden won all three of their games to top Group C, including an eye-catching 4-1 win over Germany. However, we've been here before in the sense that Sweden looked strong in the group stage of Euro 2022, but were demolished 4-0 by eventual winners England in the semi-finals.

At the 2023 World Cup Sweden won all three of their group games, edged out the USA and Japan to reach the semi-finals, but then lost to eventual winners Spain. This is a good side with some phenomenal players, but they are yet to show they can deliver when it matters most.

There's certainly a lot to like about Peter Gerhardsson's side. Defensively they have only given up one goal in three games, while in attack they have sparkled. Arsenal striker Stina Blackstenius has scored in back-to-back games against Poland and Germany, while Chelsea winger Johanna Rytting Kaneryd has delivered an assist in both of those matches. The 35-year-old Kosovare Asllani has rolled back the years, and has a goal and an assist to her name.

After returning from injury and converting a penalty against Germany, Fridolina Rolfo is likely to keep her place, while Julia Zigiotti Olme hopes for a recall in midfield.

England have recovered after false start

There's an argument to say that England's defeat to France in their Euro 2025 opener has been a blessing. It sharpened up Sarina Wiegman's team for their next two games (a 4-0 demolition of the Netherlands and a 6-1 dismissal of Wales), and by finishing second in Group D the Lionesses can avoid their old foes Spain until the final, should both teams keep progressing.

There were some nice echoes of the successful Euro 2022 campaign in that win over Wales. The talismanic Ella Toone scored and set up two further goals, midfield battler Georgia Stanway was on the scoresheet again, while Beth Mead came on a sub and scored a wonderfully-taken goal. Although England are without Fran Kirby, Millie Bright and Mary Earps at this tournament, there is still an enormous amount of quality and experience in the squad.

Wiegman admits the Lionesses have found a sense of urgency and togetherness, while Toone admits she's now recaptured her best form after an incredibly difficult spell that saw the Manchester United star suffer personal tragedy with the death of her father. Consistency of selection was a big part of England's success at the last Euros, and Wiegman is once again expected to name an unchanged line-up.

England can squeeze into semi-finals

These two European powerhouses played out two draws in qualifying, and even though England smashed Sweden 4-0 at the last Euros, the Scandinavians have shown they have perhaps closed the gap a bit since then.

I still think England have the knowhow, experience and elite coaching to come through a tight battle, so I'll put together a 23/10 Bet Builder that backs England to qualify, Stina Blackstenius to have two shots and Johanna Rytting Kaneryd to commit a foul.

Rytting Kaneryd committed five fouls in the group stage, including four against Germany. She'll be up against England's left-winger Lauren Hemp, who was fouled twice against France and twice against the Netherlands.

As for Blackstenius, she had a staggering 17 goal attempts across three group games, and even though she might not get the same level of service here against England, it's not much to ask for the Arsenal forward to have a couple of shots. When Sweden come under pressure, the hard-running Blackstenius will often be the outlet.

It's also worth looking at the Method of Victory market, if we think this is a tie that could go the distance, with both qualifying matches between the two having ended up level. You can back either team to win in extra time at 11/2, and either team to win on penalties at 9/2, so you're basically guaranteed a profit if the tie is level after 90 minutes.

But there is another way. If the tie goes to extra time, I'd back England's squad strength over Sweden's, with Sarina Wiegman able to call upon frexh attacking players like Beth Mead, Jess Park, Aggie-Beever Jones and Chloe Kelly. So I'll keep the penalties bet, but only back England to win in extra time at a hefty 17/2.

Now read the rest of our Euro 2025 coverage here!

Recommended bets

Back England to qualify, Blackstenius to have 2+ shots and Rytting Kaneryd to commit a foul @ 23/10

Back England to win in extra time @ 17/2

Back either team to win on penalties @ 9/2