Should Chelsea be worried about Cole Palmer after barren run? | OneFootball

Cole Palmer drew another blank for Chelsea in their 4-0 Premier League win over Southampton.

It’s now six league games without a goal or assist for Palmer, who still leads Chelsea for goal involvements this season on 20 (14 goals, six assists). In fact, only four players have been directly involved in more Premier League goals this season than Palmer.

But there are questions to be answered. Why is Palmer in such a barren run, and is there anything for Chelsea fans to be worrying about?

There has been a lot of talk among Chelsea fans this season about Palmer’s positioning, playing as the No.10 as opposed to right-wing role he had in 2023-24. But he was still playing No.10 for the first 21 games of the season when he recorded his 20 goal involvements.

Nonetheless, there has still been a slight change in his heat map. In these past six games, Palmer has been stuck more central, pretty much operating between the width of the penalty box. But in the first 21 games of the season, while Palmer was still focused centrally, the Englishman had more forays onto the flanks. His heat map, as shown below, covers more of the opposition half.

Chelsea’s injury issues haven’t helped here, with a lack of a striker causing the Blues to move the ball more to the right when they’re in central areas, as opposed to directly attacking the box. So that’s impacting the way Palmer can influence games. He’s averaged slightly fewer touches per 90 minutes in his past six games (54.88) than in his first 21 (57.23).

There’s also the question of form. Palmer is just in a bit of a rocky patch right now. In his first 21 games of the season, Palmer was averaging 3.62 shots per 90 in the Premier League. That number has increased to 3.88 per 90 in his past six games, but the finishing has got worse.

Palmer hit the target with 44.59% of his shots earlier in the season, compared to 34.78% now. That’s 1.61 shots on target per 90, down to 1.35. He’s also missing big chances more frequently, at 0.51 per 90 now compared to 0.44 per 90 across his first 21 games. Palmer has missed three big chances in his past two games alone, including two against Southampton.

The problem here is Palmer’s shot placement, which hasn’t been good of late. Across his first 21 games this season, Palmer had an Expected Goals total of 0.58 per 90, and an xG on Target of 0.58. That’s a shot placement ratio of 1. He wasn’t making any difference — positive or negative — to his chances of scoring in where he was placing his shots. But across the past six games, Palmer’s ratio has dropped to 0.65. He has posted an xG of 0.41 per 90, but an xGOT of 0.27. Not that Enzo Maresca is worried.

“It is how you react. He is reacting perfectly. He is smiling and he is happy. We have no doubt he will score more goals,” Maresca told Match of the Day of Palmer.

“He’s a human being. All human beings, all big players, all the normal players, big club, big manager – we all go through a bad moment.

“Even if he is young, he shared time in a big club and he knows that all the big players go through moments like this.”

Palmer’s creativity has taken a hit too. He’s almost half as creative right now as he was earlier in the season. The Englishman has created just 1.52 chances per 90 across his past six games, down from 2.93 per 90 in his first 21 matches. It’s even worse for big chances, with Palmer going from 0.88 created per 90 to just 0.17.

Again, this is down to both confidence and a slight change in where the passes are going. Palmer is actually attempting and completing more passes per 90 now than he did earlier in the season. The Chelsea midfielder has averaged 37.65 passes per 90 compared to 36.88, with his accuracy improving to 86.55% from 81.03%. He’s also attempting more long passes per 90, up from 3.77 to 4.05.

But the decisive passes have been missing. He’s only attempted 0.34 through balls per 90 in his past six games, down from 0.78 in his first 21 matches. That will partly be due too there not being the right options making the runs into the box, so Palmer won’t be fully the blame. The more central positioning has also seen Palmer’s crossing attempts drop quite a lot, from 4.94 per 90 to 2.53 per 90. In terms of his Squawka Score, across the first 21 games, Palmer comes in at 84%, but it’s just 46% for his past six matches.

Like Chelsea, it appears that Palmer is just going through a rough time. A slight change in system, partly due to injuries hasn’t helped. And the boy is just short of confidence. As they say, he just needs once to bounce in off him and he might be on the up again.

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