Mark O'Haire's Premier League Notebook: Why you should back Nottingham Forest to be relegated at 8/1 | OneFootball

English Premier League

Nottingham Forest could suffer a season of regression

Mark O'Haire kicks off a brand-new weekly Notebook column by making a strong case for Nottingham Forest to be relegated at 8/1 this season...

Forest the value play for relegation

I should pre-empt this piece by saying, I don't think Nottingham Forest will be relegated. However, this isn't a predictions piece - we're here to talk about betting odds and that means price and probability supersede all.

Do I think Forest will go down? No. But at 8/1 - an implied chance of 11% according to the market - do I think they're overvalued to finish in the bottom-three? Yes, and that means they're a bet to be relegated.

There are numerous strands behind this stance which require unpacking, and I'll hopefully be able to show my working enough to persuade you to join me on this outright journey. But it all begins with last season's exploits.

The regression red flags

Nottingham Forest were fourth favourites for the drop 12 months ago yet enjoyed quite a remarkable campaign, sitting as high as third in late April before the Champions League dream died with four defeats in their final eight encounters to finish seventh. So how did the Reds exceed all pre-season expectations, and how sustainable was their season?

Nuno Espirito Santo's simplicity certainly helped. The Tricky Trees started strongly - no team scored more goals inside the first 15 minutes, only Arsenal (26) opened the scoring more often than Forest (25), and so the Reds were rarely chasing games - only Arsenal and Liverpool had a smaller proportion of minutes from a losing game state.

That allowed the Reds to sit deep, invite pressure and hit teams on the break, as well as offering a significant set-piece threat. No side scored more goals from dead-ball situations than Forest (17), and the team were also tied for second in terms of goals scored from outside the penalty area (11), the latter of which is totally sustainable.

Similarly, top goalscorer Chris Wood converted 30% of his overall attempts in the Premier League last term, whilst goalkeeper Mats Selz enjoyed the season of his life, boasting the best save percentage in the league, two more obvious areas of potential regression when analysing the team's 2024/25 exploits.

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European commitments bring extra challenges

Nottingham Forest will return to European competition for the first time in 30 years and Europa League football is bound to influence the side's performance. Exclude Conference League participants and non-big-six teams who qualify for Europe win around 14 points fewer in the campaign immediately following qualification.

When we consider Forest were ranked as low as 13th on Expected Points (xP) last term (earning 50.21 xP) - taking 14 points away from that tally would drop the Tricky Trees into dangerous territory.

Whilst we're looking at the underlying data, it's also worth noting that only four clubs generated a lower non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) output in 2024/25 - three of those four clubs were relegated - so it doesn't require a huge amount of mental gymnastics to suggest the Tricky Trees could be dragged into trouble.

European commitments will stretch a squad that was relatively consistent and injury-free in 2024/25. Nuno used only 23 players overall - 13 of which made 31 EPL appearances or more - suggesting a reluctance to rotate or a lack of quality alternatives. That cohesion is bound to be tested with the extra workload.

Pre-season concerns

Finally, I'm not one to take too much interest in pre-season, however, it's difficult to ignore Forest's friendly performances. The Reds start the season having returned W0-D5-L2 in their warm-up fixtures, scoring a solitary goal across those seven fixtures.

Perhaps that's an early sign that suggests regression to the norm is on the way for Forest? Either way, I'm keen to back that eye-catching 8/1 a price that just looks too generous to ignore considering last season's significant overachievement and the challenges that now await Nuno and co in 2025/26.

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