All about the next game: Bochum at home

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·22. November 2024

All about the next game: Bochum at home

The last international break until March next year is over. At home, VfL Bochum awaits as an opponent at rock bottom, but they are arriving with some momentum.

VfL Bochum versus VfB Stuttgart is, on one hand, a clash between a relegation candidate and a Champions League participant. On the other hand, it’s a meeting of the last two playoff winners. Unlike VfB, the Revier club barely survived last year, scraping through in a penalty shootout. However, while VfB Stuttgart carried the energy from the playoffs into the season and crowned themselves runners-up, VfL Bochum is having one of the weakest Bundesliga campaigns in history. Only two points after 10 matchdays is not first-league material, no matter how tough the fixture list was. Nonetheless, Bochum arrives in Stuttgart with some tailwind. Dieter Hecking is a coach who knows how the Bundesliga works and what matters. He immediately made a statement in his first match, snatching a point from Bayer Leverkusen, who are used to success. There are certainly better moments to play against Bochum—especially as I expect a deep-sitting opponent who would be happy with a draw. But it’s not just Bochum’s newfound confidence that could spoil the party on Saturday. VfB is also facing challenges, particularly in terms of

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Personnel

Jamie Leweling remains injured and will be out for a few more weeks. The most high-profile recent injury is likely Deniz Undav. The German international has suffered a muscle fiber tear. His strike partner El Bilal Touré, who qualified for the Africa Cup with Mali, is also expected to miss out with a foot injury. The defensive situation isn’t much better. Alongside long-term absentee Zagadou, Al-Dakhil will be sidelined with a fever. Midfield strategist Angelo Stiller and youngster Anrie Chase are doubtful, having struggled with muscle problems during the week. Naturally, this injury list might make VfB fans skeptical about a potential home win against Bochum. But I see it differently. This situation could also be an opportunity. In the summer, we specifically strengthened the squad’s depth, and this could be the perfect moment for players like Woltemade, Keitel, and others to step up. With Woltemade in particular, you can see how he’s gaining confidence. Of course, he won’t fully replace Undav, but he wasn’t brought in for nothing. A slight downside is that he wasn’t nominated for the Champions League, so he won’t be available for the important game in Belgrade. But he should hopefully be enough for Bochum.

Possible Starting XI

I’ll assume the worst-case scenario and predict Stiller’s absence. At first glance, this doesn’t look too bad. Rieder could play on the right in place of Millot, while Millot takes on Stiller’s role. Rouault could also be replaced by Stergiou, which wouldn’t be a loss in quality.

Statistics

Bochum is a welcome guest for VfB. In 70 Bundesliga matches, VfB has won 36 times. The Revier club has taken all three points only 16 times. The last defeat against Bochum wasn’t that long ago: on January 20th this year, VfB lost 0–1 at the Ruhrstadion. But the home record looks much better. Bochum has only won four times at Stuttgart’s Neckarstadion. The last time VfL managed to get points there was in 1987(!). It’s not for nothing that VfL is bottom of the table. With 30 goals conceded, they have the league’s weakest defense. Even in expected goals against (xGA), they are last by a wide margin. Unlike VfB, Bochum is not a possession-oriented team. They have the lowest average possession and play the fewest passes, with the weakest pass completion rate in the Bundesliga. One might think they’d compensate with better off-the-ball actions, but the opposite is true. They commit the most fouls and have the fourth-worst duel success rate. These stats should be taken with caution, though. With Hecking, a new coach brings a new playing philosophy, so who knows if they’ll act completely differently on Saturday.

Conclusion

On paper, this is a must-win game. However, injuries could significantly weaken us, and Bochum could use the match against VfB to gain strength for their relegation battle. It won’t be a pretty game; I expect a very defensive and compact opponent. Nevertheless, I think we can win. 1–0, with Woltemade scoring.

Picture: © Adam Pretty/Getty Images