West Bromwich Albion v Luton Town: A tight, nervy final day is in store | OneFootball

EFL Championship

Matt Bloomfield is looking for the win that keeps Luton Town in the Championship

Ryan Deeney looks ahead to final day action at the Hawthorns as Luton Town look to secure their place in next season's EFL Championship against West Bromwich Albion...

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A tip of the Hatters

Eight matches. Three points. Four goals scored. Unable to beat Oxford United or Plymouth Argyle. Things could scarcely have started worse for Matt Bloomfield.

Luton Town returned in March to host Portsmouth in a game they had to win. They won it. Then they beat Cardiff City. And Hull City. And Derby County. They drew at Stoke City. Five matches against fellow relegation candidates and 13 points accrued. Massive.

Meanwhile, they also picked up points against play-off chasing Middlesbrough and possible title winners Leeds United. They've beaten Bristol City and Coventry City, leaving them both in need of a win on final day to secure their play-off place.

The Hatters were five points adrift of safety as they entered that match with Portsmouth on March 1st. They have since collected 21 points from 11 matches to leave them outside of the relegation zone on final day. Win, and they remain an EFL Championship club.

Goals win games, defences secure survival

So how have they done it? By boiling games down to tight margins.

Since 1st March, Luton have averaged 1.05xG and 0.89xGA. They have created more than 1xG on just three occasions and conceded more just three times - two of which came vs Leeds United and Burnley.

The results have followed suit. Across the last 11, Luton have scored more than once just twice and conceded more than one goal once, at Burnley. Both teams have scored on four occasions while under 2.5 goals has been a winner eight times.

It showcases what a good job Bloomfield has done in organising and sharpening up a team that had conceded 2 or more goals in 16 of 34 matches prior to this run, including in 12 of the previous 14 on their travels.

While they came under the cosh against fellow strugglers Derby County, they have generally found a way to stop the opposition from creating quality chances and it means they enter final day with the confidence that they can deny a Baggies side with nothing to play.

The Baggies are a little lost

That's right, West Bromwich Albion have nothing to play.

They were well and truly in the play-off battle at the point that Carlos Corberan answered the call to his beloved Valencia and the return of Tony Mowbray to both the West Midlands and management in general following illness was supposed to be a lovely, heartwarming story.

And though his return was well received, the brutal nature of football soon took over. Across his 18 matches, the Baggies collected just 20 points and defeat at home to Derby County on Bank Holiday Monday saw him lose his job.

James Morrison has taken caretaker charge for the remainder of the campaign and oversaw an entertaining 0-0 draw with Cardiff City with goalkeeper Josh Griffiths shining.

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Back both teams to score - no @ 21/20