The Opta Championship Preview: Supercomputer predictions for the 2025-26 season | OneFootball

Europe's most exciting league is about to kick off...

There is a case to be made that the Championship is Europe's most exciting league, and we are just a few days away from the second-tier rollercoaster starting up again.

The 2025/26 campaign gets under way with a blockbuster meeting between Birmingham City and Ipswich Town on August 8, before Wrexham start their quest for a fourth successive promotion at Southampton one day later.

With respective celebrity owners Tom Brady, Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, Birmingham and Wrexham are two of the big stories ahead of the new season.

But all 24 clubs can dare to dream, as our Opta supercomputer has assigned each of them at least a 2% chance of automatic promotion, so anything could happen.

Having asked Opta's predictive model to simulate the season 10,000 times, we have located some value ante-post bets ahead of the big kick-off.

OPTA on the promotion favourites

The OPTA Bet: Back Sheffield United to win the title @ 8/1

Sheffield United responded to their play-off final defeat to Sunderland by dismissing Chris Wilder and bringing in Ruben Sellés, who led Hull City out of the relegation zone after taking charge midway through 2024/25.

Ipswich Town 11/4 and Southampton 5/1 - two of the relegated sides from last season's Premier League - are both shorter for the title in Betfair's outright market, as are upwardly mobile Birmingham 6/1, but the Opta supercomputer's predictions suggest there could be excellent value in backing the Blades.

A price of 8/1 gives them an 11.1% implied probability of winning the title, yet they topped the table in a whopping 27% of the supercomputer's season simulations - well clear of any other team, with Leicester City ranking next at 7.7%.

Sellés' side are given a 41.8% chance of automatic promotion and a 71.8% probability of making at least the play-offs by our predictive model. They are therefore worth a look at 15/8 for promotion and 4/7 for a top-six finish, but perhaps backing them outright offers the most value.

The Blades were unfortunate to miss out on a Premier League return last season, becoming only the third team in the history of English football's second tier to win as many as 90 points and fail to go up, also losing their fifth play-off final (four in the second tier, one in the third) - the most any club has played without ever emerging victorious.

Sellés has earned this opportunity, having carried out fire-fighting jobs at Southampton and Hull either side of a spell with crisis club Reading, who dropped out of the League One play-off spots last season after his departure.

After Sellés joined Hull in December, only the Championship's top two (Burnley - 10 and Leeds United - 17) conceded fewer goals than the Tigers (28). Those figures were no fluke, either, as Hull also faced the fourth-fewest expected goals against (30.3 xGA) in that time, with Sheffield United seventh (31.5 xGA).

A proven organiser of defences, Sellés has also tasked the Blades with pressing higher and playing with more fluidity, and they have the players to do so.

Gustavo Hamer is still at Bramall Lane despite being linked with Premier League clubs, having scored 10 goals and supplied eight assists last term.

Jesurun Rak-Sakyi is one of several loanees to return to their parent clubs, but Louie Barry has arrived from Aston Villa on a temporary basis after scoring 15 goals in 23 League One games for Stockport County last season.

The Blades have finished fifth, second and third in their last three Championship campaigns, so they are accustomed to being there or thereabouts and look set to contend once again.

The Opta Bet: Back Ipswich Town to finish in the top 2 @ 9/5

In the unpredictable world of Championship football, stability can be key. It is little surprise, then, that Ipswich are among the favourites after retaining much of their Premier League squad.

Liam Delap left for Chelsea, but the Tractor Boys have kept hold of highly rated boss Kieran McKenna and the core of their 2023/24 promotion-winning side.

Leif Davis led all players in the division for assists (18) and chances created (125) when Ipswich were last in the Championship, while Jack Clarke (who was then with Sunderland) created the sixth-most chances (91) and scored 15 goals.

Jacob Greaves, Dara O'Shea and Jaden Philogene could be among the Championship's best players in their respective positions, while McKenna can also call upon 2023/24 Golden Boot winner Sammie Szmodics.

Szmodics' four Premier League goals last term were the second-most for Ipswich, behind Delap (12), and he netted 27 times for a struggling Blackburn Rovers team that finished 19th in his most recent Championship campaign.

Questions remain over Omari Hutchinson, who is wanted by Brentford, but Ipswich will be excited about the addition of midfielder Azor Matusiwa. A £10m acquisition from Rennes, Matusiwa led all his team-mates for tackles won (34) and interceptions (34) in Ligue 1 last season.

The supercomputer assigns Ipswich a 7.6% chance of the title, making them third favourites behind only Sheffield United and a Leicester team who look less stable than them on and off the pitch.

As one of the highest-rated teams in Opta's simulations, prices of 9/5 for Ipswich to make the top two and 6/5 to make an instant return to the top flight will have plenty interested.

OPTA on the promotion hopefuls

The OPTA Bet: Back Coventry City to be promoted @ 7/2

Coventry City's 2024/25 campaign ended with a heartbreaking extra-time defeat to Sunderland in the play-off semi-finals, as Daniel Ballard's 122nd-minute header dashed the Sky Blues' promotion hopes.

Coventry's fifth-place finish was their joint-highest since being relegated from the Premier League way back in 2001, and they will hope Frank Lampard's first full campaign in charge brings further improvement.

After Lampard's arrival on November 28 - at which point they were 17th in the table - Coventry claimed 52 points from 29 Championship matches, with only Burnley (67), Leeds (65) and Sheffield United (55) collecting more in that timeframe.

A price of 7/2 for Coventry to win promotion makes them fifth favourites, according to the Betfair Sportsbook, though the supercomputer has them as its fourth-most likely team to reach the big time, making the top two in 14.3% of scenarios and winning the title in 7.3%.

Besides Sheffield United, Leicester, Ipswich and Coventry, no other team are given more than an 11.2% chance of automatic promotion, with Southampton being the supercomputer's fifth favourites.

Coventry should certainly be an entertaining watch, with only high-flying Leeds (61.9) bettering their 49.8 xG in the Championship after Lampard took charge. Talismanic midfielder Jack Rudoni registered the fourth-most goal involvements in the division (10 goals, 12 assists), and it is something of a surprise that he has seemingly not attracted serious Premier League interest.

Haji Wright is working his way back from injury, with his 28 Championship goals across the last two seasons the joint third-most in the division, while Ellis Simms, Victor Torp and Brandon Thomas-Asante are decent options too.

The key for Lampard will be tightening up the defence - only six Championship teams faced more shots than Coventry after the Chelsea legend took charge last season.

A kind fixture list could help them play their way into form, with only four clubs having an easier start according to the Opta Power Rankings. Hull, Derby County, Queens Park Rangers and Oxford United - all of whom were battling relegation last season - are their first four opponents.

The OPTA Bet: Back Leicester City to finish in the top 6 @ 11/8

While McKenna is plotting a second promotion in three years, Ipswich's two fellow relegated clubs are under new management.

Will Still has joined Southampton after earning his stripes with Reims and Lens, while Leicester have brought in former QPR boss Martí Cifuentes after sacking Ruud van Nistelrooy.

The Foxes are fifth favourites for the title at 11/1, with off-pitch uncertainty shrouding their prospects after they were accused of breaching the EFL's financial rules during their title-winning 2023/24 Championship campaign.

But the supercomputer's predictions do not take possible points deductions into account, and Leicester are assigned a 15.9% probability of automatic promotion. A price of 11/2 for the Foxes to make the top two implies a probability of 15.4%, so that bet could offer decent value if Leicester avoid any deductions, as could their 6/4 chance of landing in the top six.

Even if they do receive a punishment, Leicester could still end up in contention.

If we judge the Foxes purely on the merits of their squad, they look strong. This will be their first season without Jamie Vardy since 2011/12, but with Bilal El Khannouss, Jordan Ayew, Patson Daka, Bobby De Cordova-Reid, Abdul Fatawu, Stephy Mavididi and Jeremy Monga still at the club as it stands, they possess plenty of firepower.

Fatawu (six goals, 13 assists) and Mavididi (12 goals, six assists) tallied 19 and 18 goal involvements respectively as Leicester won the second tier in 2023/24, and the former is hoping to make up for lost time after a serious knee injury ended his campaign early last term.

Departures are likely as Leicester look to trim their bloated wage bill, but Cifuentes will have plenty to work with. Between his appointment by QPR in October 2023 and his departure this April, the Spaniard presided over 27 wins - the seventh-most of any Championship manager in that time.

Momentum can be so important in the Championship, and Leicester also have a chance to get last season's relegation out of their system in August.

According to Opta's Power Rankings model, only West Brom have an easier start to 2025/26, based on the strength of their first four opponents. Sheffield Wednesday - who are 2/9 for relegation - are first up for Leicester on August 10.

The OPTA Bet: Back Millwall to finish in the top 6 @ 5/1

Sheffield United aside, the best value to be garnered from the supercomputer's predictions could be in backing Millwall.

After missing out on the play-offs on the final day of 2024/25, they are 5/1 to make the top six this time, with an implied probability of 16.7%. The supercomputer, though, gives them a 30% chance of attaining at least a play-off place.

That is a significantly higher probability than several teams more favoured in the betting, including Birmingham, who are 8/15 to make the top six but only do so in 20.9% of the supercomputer's simulations, and 13/8 shots Norwich City, who finish there in 20.3%.

Alex Neil was another manager to make a sizeable impact after taking over midway through last season, lifting the Lions from 13th to eighth.

Millwall had the league's fifth-best record after he took charge, winning 37 points from 23 games, and they were almost as consistent away from home as they were at The Den, ranking fourth for points won on the road (17) during that time.

They are unlikely to blow teams away, but will be difficult to beat and have recruited wisely, adding Massimo Luongo in midfield and Josh Coburn - who has averaged a goal every 184 minutes during his time in the Championship - up front.

Even more importantly, Millwall have so far managed to keep striker Mihailo Ivanovic, whose 12 goals last season came from chances with an xG value of 8.33 - he had the sixth-largest overperformance in the Championship (+3.67).

Millwall made the top half in 57.9% of the supercomputer's simulations, so a price of 4/5 for them to do so - with an implied probability of 47.6% - also looks enticing.

Opta on the relegation candidates

The OPTA Bet: Back Oxford United To be relegated @ 5/2

The fight to avoid relegation to League One is often wide open, and that should be the case again.

Sheffield Wednesday look prime candidates for the drop amid a financial crisis that has seen players go unpaid and consider cancelling their contracts, while boss Danny Röhl resigned less than two weeks before the start of the season.

Wednesday were only relegated in 13.2% of the supercomputer's simulations, but with their off-field issues, the Owls might be hard-pushed to meet those expectations.

Elsewhere, Oxford are the team the supercomputer most fancies for the drop, having escaped after the mid-season appointment of Gary Rowett last term.

The U's are assigned a 23.6% chance of relegation and are a tempting 5/2 to suffer that fate.

If they are to avoid a case of second-season syndrome, urgent attacking improvements are needed. Mark Harris and Greg Leigh top-scored for Oxford with just six goals apiece last term, and only relegated Plymouth Argyle (40.9) recorded a lower xG total than their 41.8.

The OPTA Bet: Back Preston North End To be relegated @ 9/2

Preston North End were also involved in the relegation dogfight last term, only securing survival via a 2-2 draw at Bristol City on the final day.

Paul Heckingbottom's side won just one of their final 15 games of last season, and none of their last eight - they were fortunate that Luton Town were unable to take advantage of their slide.

There are reasons to suggest they could be looking over their shoulders again, particularly after losing two key players on free transfers.

Forward Emil Riis Jakobsen has joined Bristol City after top-scoring with 12 goals last term, while Freddie Woodman has moved to Liverpool to serve as their third-choice goalkeeper, having kept 12 clean sheets in 2024/25.

Preston are 9/2 to be relegated, giving them an implied probability of 18.2%. This largely matches up with the supercomputer's predictions, with Heckingbottom's men going down in 18.7% of scenarios.

Watford are the supercomputer's surprise second favourites for relegation, going down in 22.1% of projections.

A hefty price of 13/2 could be worth a look, then, with nobody quite sure what to expect from new coach Paulo Pezzolano, though Australia's Nestory Irankunda is one of several intriguing signings.

Hull could also be in danger after narrowly surviving last season, going down in 16.2% of projections at a price of 3/1.

And what if it isn't always sunny in Wrexham? Last season's League One runners-up are assigned a 19.8% chance of relegation, only slightly less likely than Oxford, Watford and Charlton Athletic (21%). The Welsh side are 12/1 to drop back to the third tier, which may tempt some given the supercomputer suggests they are more likely to feature in the bottom half of the table than the top 12.

But the signings of Lewis O'Brien and Liberato Cacace give Wrexham a strong chance of defying that slightly grim forecast in what could prove to be a thrilling Championship campaign at both ends of the table.