Sunday Best Bets: Jimmy The Punt expects 11/1 Super Sunday stalemate | OneFootball

English Premier League

Jimmy says goals are going to be off a premium as Arsenal head to Manchester City

Jimmy The Punt has three best bets from Sunday's slate dipping into the Milan Derby and Arsenal's trip to Manchester City, featuring a 456/1 bet builder...

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Manchester City vs Arsenal

Three things to consider ahead of this clash.

The first is the fixture schedule.

In what can be described as a season defining week for the Gunners, they won the North London Derby on Sunday and drew at Atalanta in the Champions League on Thursday.

Manchester City came from behind to beat Brentford domestically last Saturday, drew against Inter at the Etihad on Wednesday and now host Arsenal Sunday.

To compare, it means City have three home games in a row and a day longer to recover for this matchup. Arsenal have gone from Tottenham to Italy and now up to Manchester all with a day less to prepare.

The other thing to consider is team news.

Arsenal look set to remain without midfield duo Mikel Merino and Martin Odegaard. Declan Rice returns from suspension but it still means the midfield is significantly downgraded.

Pep Guardiola could also be without Kevin DeBruyne.

The final thing to consider is cold, hard data.

MIkel Arteta side rank 14th for xG (5), 11th for big chances created and 17th for xGA (4.2) and are significantly overperforming these metrics scoring five times and only conceding once.

Nothing beats the eye test and although Arsenal found a way to beat Spurs, they are posting up mid-table numbers on underlying data and may not find a way past City when you consider the other factors at play.

As often is the case with these big clashes on Super Sunday, there is enough reason to suspect this one is not going to live up to the expectation.

It will probably get called an intriguing tactical battle. As far as goals go, I could see it ending without and at 11.5 backing No First Goalscorer is worth a tout.

Erling Haaland may have something to say about this but the Gunners, more specifically Gabriel and William Saliba have a habit of keeping him quiet.

Haaland vs Arsenal last season:

So although the Norwegian has scored more goals than all the other top flight clubs, it could be another frustrating afternoon for him.

Across the two clashes last season, the whole City team were frustrated. They only had two shots on target across the two games and failed to score.

In fact there was only one goal across those games which is all the more reason to expect a drab affair Sunday, as is the fact both sides played their part in Champions League stalemates in midweek.

Last time these two squared off, literally nothing happened for the first two thirds of the game.

There were no goals and no cards and although Arsenal finished with two bookings, at 423/1 on the Sportsbook combining No First Goalscorer with under 0.5 home team cards with under 0.5 away team cards provides some interest.

There are shrewder ways in of course but as a small stakes punt I think we could get a run for our money.

The same bet builder is a 160/1 with bet365 for context.

Inter vs Milan

Inter certainly have the bragging rights in Milan.

They have won the last six meetings including the double last season en route to the Serie A title.

Although I Nerazzuri have the upper hand, there certainly isn't any love lost between these two. Last season's Milan Derbies saw 12 cards brandished and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The referee appointment suggests there could be. Mauritian Mariani has the whistle and he has averaged five cards a game in Serie A.

Theo Hernandez looks the most likely candidate, he has been carded in all four of the last five league meetings which includes four yellows and two red cards.

Combining an Inter win with Theo Hernandez card is the way in here.

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