Spain v Georgia: La Roja's dynamic attack to overcome heroic Mamardashvili | OneFootball

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Spain v GeorgiaSunday 30th June, 20:00Live on ITV1

Knocking down the Georgian wall won't be easy for Spain

Georgia's 2-0 win over Portugal last time out came with just 28% possession to their name; the lowest on record by a team ever to win a game at the UEFA European Championship. You've been warned, Spain.

Particularly after a victory like that, the direction of play should be pretty well defined here. Georgia know they can claw their way through the game by defending deep and cashing in a counter-attack or a set piece if they execute well, and Spain will welcome the ensuing control of the match as an opportunity to dominate the share of action in the penalty areas (again, if they execute well).

Georgia defended deeper than anyone else in the group stage, recovering the ball an average of 34 metres from their own goal (in open play). Indeed, they had the biggest negative shot differential too, facing 45 more than they managed themselves (26 for, 71 against).

While the data in isolation suggests Georgia don't look much like a knockout stage calibre side, we know how tournaments work. Underdogs defy the odds, they compete in ways that they can't replicate outside of tournaments, and heroes arise. As for the latter, I'm talking specifically about Giorgi Mamardashvili; a player Spain knew about long before EURO 2024.

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Mamardashvili's 21 saves were the joint-most in a UEFA European Championship group stage, he's saved 16 of the last 17 shots on target he's faced, and Opta's xG data tells us he's conceded almost half as many as would have been expected, based on the quality of shots on target (four conceded from 7.6 xGoT). They simply wouldn't be here without the sustaining heroics of their number one.

There's every chance this game turns out to be Spain versus Mamardashvili too, given the pattern of play that could set in. La Roja look to have all the tools to chip away at Georgia's defence, with balance on both flanks and creativity in the middle, and they've created more big chances (12) than anyone else in the tournament so far.

Spain may have beaten Georgia 7-1 during the qualifying campaign, but the circumstances are wholly different this time. Against an opponent who have nothing to lose and will fight for every inch, and who are backed up by a goalkeeper in almost supernatural form, even an impressive Spain side should have to earn everything they can here.

Dating back to the EURO 2008 final, only two of Spain's last 14 knockout stage games at major tournaments have seen more than two goals scored. Even when they're great, the margins tend to be fine. And so I'll take La Roja to advance here, albeit without a comfortable margin.

Controlling Kvaratskhelia of huge importance for Spain

Georges Mikautadze may have been the top scorer in the EURO 2024 group stage, but it is Khvicha Kvaratskhelia who Spain will be most concerned about in their preparations for Sunday.

With the pattern of play that we expect to set in - Spain dominating territory and Georgia waiting for their moment to spring - the Napoli winger is the one who can drag his team up the pitch and turn defence to attack when Spain are caught in their in-possession shape. Indeed, Kvaratskhelia has covered 397 metres carrying the ball upfield at EURO 2024; the most of any striker in the group stage.

On the left half of the pitch in which he prefers to operate, Spain will have the likes of Rodri, Dani Carvajal, and Robin Le Normand all at close quarters throughout stages of the game. All three of them aren't shy in conceding fouls, and they all know when to take one for their team. Kvaratskhelia was fouled more times than anyone else in the group stage (10), and I'll pick out the aggressive Le Normand - who's committed six fouls in two games at EURO 2024 - to be among the Spain players continuing the trend here.

Of course, La Roja will need to keep Georgia penned in their own half to exact the likely winning game plan here, not just to keep Kvaratskhelia under control. Where this type of game might have struck fear into a Spain fan during the Luis Enrique era, where 900 passes might only yield a handful of shots on target, Luis de la Fuente's side will go about this with an emphasis on making Georgia defend, not just making them chase.

Uefa European Championship Finals - Top 10 Shots On Target

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Along with the two aforementioned angles on fouls, I'll add in 1+ shot on target for both Lamine Yamal and Fabian Ruiz to our bet builder here.

For Yamal, the case is that Spain have leant heavily on producing attacks via the wings in the two games they've played with him and Nico Williams at EURO 2024. Although both have been incisive in wide areas, the 16-year-old has had four shots compared to Williams' two so far, and looked more likely to go for goal himself once he can put defenders on their heels. Indeed, Yamal also leads all Spain players for touches in the opposition box (10) at the tournament.

As for Fabian Ruiz, he's been among the best news for Spain at EURO 2024 so far. Along with creative midfield play and energetic defensive work, he scored a crucial goal against Croatia and is second only to Morata (4) for shots on target for Spain (3).

With the confidence he's playing with, and considering the fact he can be aggressive in his positioning against a deep Georgia defence, I'll back him to be active in looking for shooting opportunities in this one.