Southampton v Liverpool: Back Reds at 8/5 and take 22/1 scorer punt

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·17 de dezembro de 2024

Southampton v Liverpool: Back Reds at 8/5 and take 22/1 scorer punt

EFL Cup

Arne Slot's side are 100/1 for the Quadruple ahead of their Carabao Cup quarter-final

Vídeos OneFootball

Andy Schooler has a way of backing Liverpool to beat Southampton at 8/5, as well as a 22/1 anytime scorer pick for Wednesday's Carabao Cup quarter-final.

Southampton v LiverpoolWednesday 18 December, 20:00Live on Sky Sports Football

It's mid-December, we're almost halfway through the season - can we talk about the Quadruple yet?

We've become accustomed to such a discussion around this point of the campaign and it's usually involved Manchester City.

Can Liverpool win the quad at [100/1?]

However, with Pep Guardiola and his Premier League champions currently flapping around like a beached fish, it's Liverpool for whom four trophies is beginning to look a possibility - just as it did in 2021/22 when they won two competitions and finished runners-up in the others.

They currently hold healthy leads in both the Premier League and Champions League, face Accrington Stanley at home in their FA Cup opener (one for milk fans everywhere) and play this match in the League Cup quarter-finals.

It's certainly a strong position the Reds find themselves in and you can see why people will be backing them to scoop the lot at 100/1.

Key to any Quad bid is squad strength in depth and it's so far so good on that front for Arne Slot, who has been able to make the odd change here and there in the big games before shaking things up a bit more in this competition.

With Sunday's game at Tottenham of higher priority, that will likely be the case again here - don't expect Mo Salah to play, with Ryan Gravenberch another likely to get the night off.

Virgil van Dijk could probably do with a rest but he may have to play with defensive numbers short, Andy Robertson's red card on Saturday meaning he has to join the injured Kostas Tsimikas, Ibrahima Konate and Conor Bradley on the sidelines.

Yet the Liverpool squad should be able to cope. Diogo Jota returned from injury as a substitute at the weekend, while the likes of Wataru Endo, Harvey Elliott and Federico Chiesa are champing at the bit for game time.

Alexis Mac Allister is available again after suspension, while the production line of academy talent is there to use if deemed necessary - it's delivered results on numerous occasions in recent years, particularly in the domestic cups.

All change at Saints

Slot will also know Southampton - 7.4 for the upset - are a team in a bit of a state right now.

Sunday's humiliating 5-0 home defeat to Spurs proved to be the end-game for boss Russell Martin and so under-21 boss Simon Rusk will be in charge for this game.

He'll doubtless have mentioned to his players the recent Premier League game between these two - one Saints led 2-1 in the second half before losing 3-2 to a late penalty - and that will give them some hope.

Yet, we can't be sure what sort of side Rusk will pick. With the board having clearly shown their aim remains survival, he'll surely have at least one eye on Sunday's trip to Fulham, which could mean the team is very different to the one that performed so well last month.

Alex McCarthy and Jan Bednarek are at least available again after injury, as is Paul Onuachu, who impressed against the Reds that day. Meanhile, Joe Aribo is a player who will be hoiping for more chances now Martin has left. All four could play here.

BTTS option boosts Reds' price

However, whoever plays, Liverpool's XI is likely to look much better on paper and it's hard to get away from wanting to side with them in some shape or form.

They are just 1.45 for victory in 90 minutes on the Betfair Exchange, although you can get that up to 2.6 by backing them to win with both teams scoring.

Both of their wins in this competition so far have come via that method - 5-1 at home to West Ham and 3-2 at Brighton in the last round.

Saints have also landed the BTTS bet in their three games in the Carabao Cup, as well as recent league games with Arsenal, Chelsea and, of course, Liverpool.

Throw in the defensive unfamiliarity that the visitors are facing and this looks the way to get with the hot favourites.

Defender worth considering at 22s

Moving into the player markets - admittedly a risk given so little is known about the likely team line-ups - one man who could make trouble for that makeshift Liverpool back four is Taylor Harwood-Bellis.

He's proved a real threat from set-pieces and isn't afraid to try his luck from range either.

That's resulted in him landing the 1+ shot bet in 10 of his last 14 appearances for club and country - he's 5/6 for a repeat here.

However, the England international has also scored four goals in that period yet is 22/1 in the anytime scorer market for this match.

I'll happily bet either of those options but, with team news uncertain, I'm not so keen on backing the short price given the possibility Harwood-Bellis could be named on the bench.

A couple of other props plays are worth mentioning, although I'd wait for the team news before getting involved.

The aforementioned Endo has only started two games this season, both in this competition, but he's committed 2+ fouls in both and has now landed that bet in his last seven starts.

On the Southampton side, youngster Tyler Dibling has committed a foul in 10 of his 11 starts this season.Put the two strong data picks together and you get a 23/20 shot - that will look good business if both are named in the starting XIs.